Michigan · crop watch
Michigan potato crop
USDA's November forecast puts the 2025 crop at 20.2 million cwt, down 1.1% from last year's final of 20.4.
2025 USDA forecast
USDA does not publish weekly condition ratings for Michigan potato; the annual forecast and final estimate are the official measures.
20.4
million cwt, 2025 final
+0.8% against that season's first forecast.
Analysis
Latest USDA forecast, November 2025
Michigan potato crop seen slightly below last year
USDA's November 2025 forecast puts Michigan's 2025 potato crop at 20.2 million cwt, down 1.1% from last year's final total of 20.4 million cwt and further below the 21.6 million cwt produced two years ago. Michigan's forecasts have historically run light: first estimates have finished an average of 7.1% below the final crop, meaning this season's number could firm up as harvest wraps and USDA issues later revisions.
Forecast reliability
±10.0%
Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.
Forecast record
How the forecast moved to final
Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.
| Crop year | First forecast (million cwt) | Final | Revision | Crop value | Share of US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20.2 November | 20.4 | +0.8% | $291M | 4.9% |
| 2024 | 22.2 November | 20.4 | −8.1% | $337M | 4.8% |
| 2023 | 19.5 November | 21.6 | +10.7% | $287M | 4.9% |
| 2022 | 16.7 November | 21.0 | +25.3% | $291M | 5.2% |
| 2021 | 20.0 November | 21.1 | +5.3% | $276M | 5.1% |
| 2020 | 17.4 November | 19.1 | +9.9% | $206M | 4.6% |
| 2019 | 19.5 November | 20.4 | +4.6% | $200M | 4.8% |
| 2018 | — | 18.2 | — | $192M | 4.1% |
| 2017 | — | 18.3 | — | $203M | 4.1% |
| 2016 | — | 17.4 | — | $177M | 3.9% |
| 2015 | — | 17.6 | — | $183M | 3.9% |
| 2014 | — | 15.7 | — | $182M | 3.5% |
Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.