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Idaho · crop watch

Idaho potato crop

USDA last rated the 2021 Idaho potato crop for the week ending Oct 3, when 58% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 95% complete (five-year average 94%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2021 crop at 132.1 million cwt, down 2.0% from last year's final of 134.8.

Last rated week ending Oct 3, 2021

Good to excellent · last reading

58%of the crop

Share of the 2021 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Oct 3.

▲

95%

Harvested

+1 points against the five-year pace of 94%.

▲

138

million cwt, 2025 forecast

+2.3% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Idaho potato crop set to top last year

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Idaho potato crop at 138.4 million cwt, up 2.3% from last year's final total of 135.2 million cwt. The crop remains below the 143.3 million cwt final logged two years ago. Historically, Idaho's first forecast has tended to finish slightly larger than initial estimates, with past revisions averaging 0.2% higher by the final count, so the 138.4 million cwt figure could edge up rather than down as the season closes. Buyers weighing storage and contract volumes have a modestly larger crop than last year to work with, though still short of the level seen two seasons back. The next USDA update will show whether that typical upward drift holds.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±0.4%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2021

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Idaho potato crop condition, 20210%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 2%, Good 96%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg 96%, last year 94%)Week ending Jun 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 7%, Good 83%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 92% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 96%)Week ending Jun 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 4%, Good 79%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 91%)Week ending Jun 27: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 7%, Good 76%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 93% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 93%)Week ending Jul 4: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 11%, Good 70%, Excellent 18% — good+excellent 88% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 99%)Week ending Jul 11: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 16%, Good 75%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 84% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 97%)Week ending Jul 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 7%, Good 80%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 92% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 96%)Week ending Jul 25: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 6%, Good 77%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 94% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 97%)Week ending Aug 1: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 15%, Good 69%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 85% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 98%)Week ending Aug 8: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 8%, Good 74%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 91% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 98%)Week ending Aug 15: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 7%, Good 67%, Excellent 23% — good+excellent 90% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 98%)Week ending Aug 22: Very poor 0%, Poor 4%, Fair 6%, Good 68%, Excellent 22% — good+excellent 90% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 99%)Week ending Aug 29: Very poor 0%, Poor 6%, Fair 15%, Good 61%, Excellent 18% — good+excellent 79% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 99%)Week ending Sep 5: Very poor 0%, Poor 6%, Fair 18%, Good 59%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 76% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 99%)Week ending Sep 12: Very poor 0%, Poor 8%, Fair 20%, Good 55%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 96%)Week ending Sep 19: Very poor 0%, Poor 9%, Fair 22%, Good 57%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 69% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 95%)Week ending Sep 26: Very poor 0%, Poor 6%, Fair 24%, Good 59%, Excellent 11% — good+excellent 70% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 95%)Week ending Oct 3: Very poor 1%, Poor 9%, Fair 32%, Good 50%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 58% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvest begins — week ending Aug 8Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Oct 3USDA forecast−12 pts — week ending Oct 3−12 ptsJun 6Jun 27Jul 18Aug 8Aug 29Sep 19
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 58% good or excellent, week ending Oct 3. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Idaho potato planted, 20210%50%100%Planted, week ending Mar 28: 1% (5-yr avg 1%, last year 1%)Planted, week ending Apr 4: 6% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 4%)Planted, week ending Apr 11: 14% (5-yr avg 10%, last year 12%)Planted, week ending Apr 18: 33% (5-yr avg 20%, last year 16%)Planted, week ending Apr 25: 44% (5-yr avg 35%, last year 26%)Planted, week ending May 2: 52% (5-yr avg 47%, last year 36%)Planted, week ending May 9: 65% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 58%)Planted, week ending May 16: 85% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 76%)Planted, week ending May 23: 90% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 88%)Planted, week ending May 30: 95% (5-yr avg 96%, last year 97%)Mar 28Apr 11Apr 25May 9May 23
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 95% as of May 30 (5-yr avg 96%).

Field progress

Emerged, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Idaho potato emerged, 20210%50%100%Emerged, week ending Apr 25: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending May 2: 7% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending May 9: 14% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending May 16: 23% (5-yr avg —, last year 26%)Emerged, week ending May 23: 34% (5-yr avg 31%, last year 34%)Emerged, week ending May 30: 58% (5-yr avg 55%, last year 50%)Emerged, week ending Jun 6: 64% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 76%)Emerged, week ending Jun 13: 88% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 87%)Emerged, week ending Jun 20: 97% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 95%)Apr 25May 9May 23Jun 6Jun 20
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 97% as of Jun 20 (5-yr avg 91%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Idaho potato harvested, 20210%50%100%Harvested, week ending Aug 8: 2% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 4%)Harvested, week ending Aug 15: 7% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 5%)Harvested, week ending Aug 22: 8% (5-yr avg 5%, last year 6%)Harvested, week ending Aug 29: 10% (5-yr avg 6%, last year 7%)Harvested, week ending Sep 5: 12% (5-yr avg 11%, last year 10%)Harvested, week ending Sep 12: 17% (5-yr avg 18%, last year 18%)Harvested, week ending Sep 19: 19% (5-yr avg 29%, last year 31%)Harvested, week ending Sep 26: 33% (5-yr avg 42%, last year 50%)Harvested, week ending Oct 3: 52% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 64%)Harvested, week ending Oct 10: 85% (5-yr avg 76%, last year 82%)Harvested, week ending Oct 17: 93% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 93%)Harvested, week ending Oct 24: 95% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 98%)Aug 8Aug 22Sep 5Sep 19Oct 3Oct 17
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 95% as of Oct 24 (5-yr avg 94%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Idaho potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final050100150million cwt2014: no forecast · final 132.9 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 130.4 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 139.3 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 134.9 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 141.8 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 134.0 million cwt · final 130.9 million cwt (-2.3%)−2.3%20192020: Nov forecast 136.5 million cwt · final 134.8 million cwt (-1.3%)−1.3%20202021: Nov forecast 132.1 million cwt · final 132.1 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%20212022: Nov forecast 120.7 million cwt · final 120.7 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%20222023: Nov forecast 141.9 million cwt · final 143.3 million cwt (+1.0%)+1.0%20232024: Nov forecast 135.2 million cwt · final 135.2 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%20242025: Nov forecast 138.4 million cwt · final 140.0 million cwt (+1.1%)+1.1%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
2025138.4 November140.0+1.1%$1,134M33.5%
2024135.2 November135.20.0%$1,220M32.1%
2023141.9 November143.3+1.0%$1,380M32.6%
2022120.7 November120.70.0%$1,509M30.0%
2021132.1 November132.10.0%$1,117M32.0%
2020136.5 November134.8−1.3%$981M32.1%
2019134.0 November130.9−2.3%$1,045M30.9%
2018—141.8—$1,028M31.5%
2017—134.9—$975M29.9%
2016—139.3—$968M30.9%
2015—130.4—$913M29.1%
2014—132.9—$957M29.6%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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