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Idaho · crop watch

Idaho potato crop

USDA last rated the 2023 Idaho potato crop for the week ending Oct 1, when 79% was good or excellent, versus 83% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 98% complete (five-year average 93%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2023 crop at 141.9 million cwt, up 17.5% from last year's final of 120.7.

Last rated week ending Oct 1, 2023

Good to excellent · last reading

79%of the crop

Share of the 2023 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Oct 1.

▲

98%

Harvested

+5 points against the five-year pace of 93%.

▲

138

million cwt, 2025 forecast

+2.3% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Idaho potato crop set to top last year

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Idaho potato crop at 138.4 million cwt, up 2.3% from last year's final total of 135.2 million cwt. The crop remains below the 143.3 million cwt final logged two years ago. Historically, Idaho's first forecast has tended to finish slightly larger than initial estimates, with past revisions averaging 0.2% higher by the final count, so the 138.4 million cwt figure could edge up rather than down as the season closes. Buyers weighing storage and contract volumes have a modestly larger crop than last year to work with, though still short of the level seen two seasons back. The next USDA update will show whether that typical upward drift holds.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±0.4%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2023

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Idaho potato crop condition, 20230%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 4: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 38%, Good 61%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 62% (5-yr avg 95%, last year 98%)Week ending Jun 11: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 29%, Good 70%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 71% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 95%)Week ending Jun 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 31%, Good 68%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 69% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 90%)Week ending Jun 25: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 35%, Good 64%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 65% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 92%)Week ending Jul 2: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 30%, Good 69%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 70% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 91%)Week ending Jul 9: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 25%, Good 71%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 93%)Week ending Jul 16: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 23%, Good 71%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 74% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 91%)Week ending Jul 23: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 19%, Good 75%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 79% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 88%)Week ending Jul 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 17%, Good 77%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 81% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 87%)Week ending Aug 6: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 20%, Good 73%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 76% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 91%)Week ending Aug 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 15%, Good 76%, Excellent 7% — good+excellent 83% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 85%)Week ending Aug 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 23%, Good 71%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 76% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 86%)Week ending Aug 27: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 23%, Good 68%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 88%)Week ending Sep 3: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 20%, Good 73%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 76% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 87%)Week ending Sep 10: Very poor 1%, Poor 4%, Fair 21%, Good 70%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 74% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 88%)Week ending Sep 17: Very poor 1%, Poor 4%, Fair 23%, Good 68%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 87%)Week ending Sep 24: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 20%, Good 72%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 76% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 84%)Week ending Oct 1: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 19%, Good 76%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 79% (5-yr avg —, last year 83%)Harvest begins — week ending Aug 13Harvest begins−7 pts — week ending Aug 20−7 ptsUSDA forecast — week ending Oct 1USDA forecastJun 4Jun 25Jul 16Aug 6Aug 27Sep 17
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 79% good or excellent, week ending Oct 1. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Idaho potato planted, 20230%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 2: 0% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 4%)Planted, week ending Apr 9: 1% (5-yr avg 10%, last year 14%)Planted, week ending Apr 16: 7% (5-yr avg 20%, last year 19%)Planted, week ending Apr 23: 15% (5-yr avg 32%, last year 27%)Planted, week ending Apr 30: 28% (5-yr avg 46%, last year 38%)Planted, week ending May 7: 54% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 64%)Planted, week ending May 14: 70% (5-yr avg 76%, last year 85%)Planted, week ending May 21: 83% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 94%)Planted, week ending May 28: 90% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Planted, week ending Jun 4: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 2Apr 16Apr 30May 14May 28
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 95% as of Jun 4.

Field progress

Emerged, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Idaho potato emerged, 20230%50%100%Emerged, week ending Apr 23: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending Apr 30: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending May 7: 6% (5-yr avg 7%, last year 5%)Emerged, week ending May 14: 11% (5-yr avg 17%, last year 13%)Emerged, week ending May 21: 33% (5-yr avg 29%, last year 19%)Emerged, week ending May 28: 61% (5-yr avg 50%, last year 40%)Emerged, week ending Jun 4: 66% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 46%)Emerged, week ending Jun 11: 69% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 71%)Emerged, week ending Jun 18: 91% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 93%)Emerged, week ending Jun 25: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 23May 7May 21Jun 4Jun 18
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 100% as of Jun 25.

Field progress

Harvested, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Idaho potato harvested, 20230%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 30: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Aug 6: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Aug 13: 1% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 1%)Harvested, week ending Aug 20: 2% (5-yr avg 4%, last year 2%)Harvested, week ending Aug 27: 3% (5-yr avg 6%, last year 5%)Harvested, week ending Sep 3: 7% (5-yr avg 9%, last year 8%)Harvested, week ending Sep 10: 11% (5-yr avg 14%, last year 10%)Harvested, week ending Sep 17: 18% (5-yr avg 21%, last year 16%)Harvested, week ending Sep 24: 24% (5-yr avg 34%, last year 26%)Harvested, week ending Oct 1: 45% (5-yr avg 50%, last year 43%)Harvested, week ending Oct 8: 74% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 67%)Harvested, week ending Oct 15: 90% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 83%)Harvested, week ending Oct 22: 98% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 90%)Jul 30Aug 13Aug 27Sep 10Sep 24Oct 8Oct 22
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 98% as of Oct 22 (5-yr avg 93%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Idaho potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final050100150million cwt2014: no forecast · final 132.9 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 130.4 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 139.3 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 134.9 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 141.8 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 134.0 million cwt · final 130.9 million cwt (-2.3%)−2.3%20192020: Nov forecast 136.5 million cwt · final 134.8 million cwt (-1.3%)−1.3%20202021: Nov forecast 132.1 million cwt · final 132.1 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%20212022: Nov forecast 120.7 million cwt · final 120.7 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%20222023: Nov forecast 141.9 million cwt · final 143.3 million cwt (+1.0%)+1.0%20232024: Nov forecast 135.2 million cwt · final 135.2 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%20242025: Nov forecast 138.4 million cwt · final 140.0 million cwt (+1.1%)+1.1%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
2025138.4 November140.0+1.1%$1,134M33.5%
2024135.2 November135.20.0%$1,220M32.1%
2023141.9 November143.3+1.0%$1,380M32.6%
2022120.7 November120.70.0%$1,509M30.0%
2021132.1 November132.10.0%$1,117M32.0%
2020136.5 November134.8−1.3%$981M32.1%
2019134.0 November130.9−2.3%$1,045M30.9%
2018—141.8—$1,028M31.5%
2017—134.9—$975M29.9%
2016—139.3—$968M30.9%
2015—130.4—$913M29.1%
2014—132.9—$957M29.6%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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