ProduceWire ProduceWire

Vermont · crop watch

Vermont apple crop

USDA last rated the 2021 Vermont apple crop for the week ending Oct 10, when 100% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 98% complete. USDA's August forecast puts the 2018 crop at 20.1 million lb, down 35.0% from last year's final of 30.9.

Last rated week ending Oct 10, 2021

Good to excellent · last reading

100%of the crop

Share of the 2021 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Oct 10.

–

98%

Harvested

As of Oct 31.

▼

20.1

million lb, 2018 forecast

−35.0% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 27

Vermont apples rated fully good to excellent

Vermont's apple crop was rated 100% good to excellent for the week ending September 27, 2026, unchanged from the prior week, with three-quarters of that in the excellent category. Harvest reached 71% complete, ahead of the five-year average of 56% and close to last year's 69% pace at the same point. Full bloom, petal fall and fruit set all ran ahead of or level with last year's timing earlier in the season. An August 2018 forecast for the crop put output at 20.1 million pounds, down 35% from the prior year's final total of 30.9 million pounds.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2021

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
Vermont apple crop condition, 20210%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 0%, Good 100%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 100% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jun 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 0%, Good 100%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 100% (5-yr avg 48%, last year 0%)Week ending Jun 27: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 0%, Good 100%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 100% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 20%)Week ending Jul 4: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 0%, Good 100%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 100% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 35%)Week ending Jul 11: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 0%, Good 100%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 100% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 40%)Week ending Jul 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 50%, Good 50%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 50% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 45%)Week ending Jul 25: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 0%, Good 100%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 100% (5-yr avg 71%, last year 50%)Week ending Aug 1: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 0%, Good 98%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 100% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 55%)Week ending Aug 8: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 0%, Good 25%, Excellent 75% — good+excellent 100% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 62%)Week ending Aug 15: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 0%, Good 25%, Excellent 75% — good+excellent 100% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 69%)Week ending Aug 22: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 0%, Good 30%, Excellent 70% — good+excellent 100% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 78%)Week ending Aug 29: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 0%, Good 96%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 100% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 83%)Week ending Sep 5: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 0%, Good 32%, Excellent 68% — good+excellent 100% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 92%)Week ending Sep 12: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 0%, Good 32%, Excellent 68% — good+excellent 100% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 100%)Week ending Sep 19: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 0%, Good 0%, Excellent 100% — good+excellent 100% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 100%)Week ending Oct 3: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 0%, Good 30%, Excellent 70% — good+excellent 100% (5-yr avg —, last year 100%)Week ending Oct 10: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 0%, Good 29%, Excellent 71% — good+excellent 100% (5-yr avg —, last year —)−50 pts — week ending Jul 18−50 ptsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 15USDA forecastHarvest begins — week ending Aug 15Harvest beginsJun 13Jul 4Jul 25Aug 15Sep 5Oct 3
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 100% good or excellent, week ending Oct 10. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Green tip, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Vermont apple green tip, 20210%50%100%Green tip, week ending Apr 11: 25% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Green tip, week ending Apr 18: 31% (5-yr avg —, last year 62%)Green tip, week ending Apr 25: 52% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 82%)Green tip, week ending May 2: 77% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 98%)Green tip, week ending May 9: 84% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 100%)Green tip, week ending May 16: 100% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 100%)Green tip, week ending May 23: 100% (5-yr avg 99%, last year 100%)Green tip, week ending May 30: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year 100%)Green tip, week ending Jun 6: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 11Apr 25May 9May 23Jun 6
This year5-yr avgLast year

Green tip: 100% as of Jun 6.

Field progress

Pink, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Vermont apple pink, 20210%50%100%Pink, week ending Apr 25: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Pink, week ending May 2: 35% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Pink, week ending May 9: 50% (5-yr avg 40%, last year 62%)Pink, week ending May 16: 78% (5-yr avg 63%, last year 83%)Pink, week ending May 23: 88% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 88%)Pink, week ending May 30: 95% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 98%)Pink, week ending Jun 6: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 25May 2May 9May 16May 23May 30Jun 6
This year5-yr avgLast year

Pink: 100% as of Jun 6.

Field progress

Full bloom, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Vermont apple full bloom, 20210%50%100%Full bloom, week ending May 9: 5% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Full bloom, week ending May 16: 49% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Full bloom, week ending May 23: 73% (5-yr avg 47%, last year 44%)Full bloom, week ending May 30: 83% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 63%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 6: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year 80%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 13: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year 97%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 20: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year —)May 9May 16May 23May 30Jun 6Jun 13Jun 20
This year5-yr avgLast year

Full bloom: 100% as of Jun 20.

Field progress

Petal fall, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Vermont apple petal fall, 20210%50%100%Petal fall, week ending May 9: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Petal fall, week ending May 16: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Petal fall, week ending May 23: 50% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Petal fall, week ending May 30: 60% (5-yr avg 39%, last year 38%)Petal fall, week ending Jun 6: 100% (5-yr avg 59%, last year 45%)Petal fall, week ending Jun 13: 100% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 92%)Petal fall, week ending Jun 20: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year 100%)May 9May 16May 23May 30Jun 6Jun 13Jun 20
This year5-yr avgLast year

Petal fall: 100% as of Jun 20.

Field progress

Fruit set, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Vermont apple fruit set, 20210%50%100%Fruit set, week ending May 23: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Fruit set, week ending May 30: 60% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Fruit set, week ending Jun 6: 100% (5-yr avg 29%, last year 9%)Fruit set, week ending Jun 13: 100% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 61%)Fruit set, week ending Jun 20: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year 85%)Fruit set, week ending Jun 27: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year 90%)May 23May 30Jun 6Jun 13Jun 20Jun 27
This year5-yr avgLast year

Fruit set: 100% as of Jun 27.

Field progress

Harvested, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Vermont apple harvested, 20210%50%100%Harvested, week ending Aug 8: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Aug 15: 2% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Aug 22: 13% (5-yr avg 6%, last year 4%)Harvested, week ending Aug 29: 25% (5-yr avg 14%, last year 8%)Harvested, week ending Sep 5: 50% (5-yr avg 21%, last year 14%)Harvested, week ending Sep 12: 50% (5-yr avg 27%, last year 19%)Harvested, week ending Sep 19: 50% (5-yr avg 34%, last year 24%)Harvested, week ending Sep 26: 50% (5-yr avg 49%, last year 44%)Harvested, week ending Oct 3: 66% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 67%)Harvested, week ending Oct 10: 84% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 80%)Harvested, week ending Oct 17: 84% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 97%)Harvested, week ending Oct 24: 94% (5-yr avg 96%, last year 100%)Harvested, week ending Oct 31: 98% (5-yr avg —, last year 100%)Aug 8Aug 22Sep 5Sep 19Oct 3Oct 17Oct 31
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 98% as of Oct 31.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Vermont apple crop: USDA first forecast vs final010203040million lb2010: no forecast · final 35.0 million lb20102011: no forecast · final 33.5 million lb20112012: no forecast · final 25.5 million lb20122013: no forecast · final 34.0 million lb20132014: no forecast · final 29.4 million lb20142015: no forecast · final 38.3 million lb20152016: no forecast · final 30.0 million lb20162017: no forecast · final 30.9 million lb20172018: Aug forecast 20.1 million lb · final pending2018
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million lb)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
201820.1 Augustpending———
2017—30.9—$23M0.3%
2016—30.0—$20M0.3%
2015—38.3—$16M0.4%
2014—29.4—$11M0.2%
2013—34.0—$14M0.3%
2012—25.5—$10M0.3%
2011—33.5—$8M0.4%
2010—35.0—$10M0.4%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

Vermont apple crop: fresh market vs processing010203040million lb2010: fresh 27.0, processing 6.0, not sold 0.0 million lb — 82% fresh20102011: fresh 16.0, processing 10.5, not sold 0.5 million lb — 59% fresh20112012: fresh 17.5, processing 6.5, not sold 0.0 million lb — 73% fresh20122013: fresh 26.0, processing 5.0, not sold 2.5 million lb — 78% fresh20132014: fresh 23.8, processing 4.4, not sold 0.1 million lb — 84% fresh20142015: fresh 32.7, processing 5.3, not sold 0.3 million lb — 85% fresh20152016: fresh 24.0, processing 5.8, not sold 0.2 million lb — 80% fresh20162017: fresh 24.3, processing 6.4, not sold 0.2 million lb — 79% fresh2017
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

Get the Weekly Market Brief

Price moves, freight signals, and the produce stories that matter — one email, every week. Built for buyers, category managers, and brokers.

Subscribe free →