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Vermont · crop watch

Vermont apple crop

USDA last rated the 2023 Vermont apple crop for the week ending Oct 1, when 0% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 97% complete. USDA's August forecast puts the 2018 crop at 20.1 million lb, down 35.0% from last year's final of 30.9.

Last rated week ending Oct 1, 2023

Good to excellent · last reading

0%of the crop

Share of the 2023 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Oct 1.

–

97%

Harvested

As of Oct 29.

▼

20.1

million lb, 2018 forecast

−35.0% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 27

Vermont apples rated fully good to excellent

Vermont's apple crop was rated 100% good to excellent for the week ending September 27, 2026, unchanged from the prior week, with three-quarters of that in the excellent category. Harvest reached 71% complete, ahead of the five-year average of 56% and close to last year's 69% pace at the same point. Full bloom, petal fall and fruit set all ran ahead of or level with last year's timing earlier in the season. An August 2018 forecast for the crop put output at 20.1 million pounds, down 35% from the prior year's final total of 30.9 million pounds.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2023

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
Vermont apple crop condition, 20230%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 11: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 100%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 46%)Week ending Jun 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 100%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 100%)Week ending Jun 25: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 100%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 100%)Week ending Jul 2: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 100%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 84%)Week ending Jul 9: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 100%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 83%)Week ending Jul 16: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 100%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 100%)Week ending Jul 23: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 100%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 100%)Week ending Jul 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 100%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 100%)Week ending Aug 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 100%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 100%)Week ending Aug 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 50%, Fair 50%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 100%)Week ending Aug 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 41%, Fair 59%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg 96%, last year 100%)Week ending Aug 27: Very poor 0%, Poor 50%, Fair 50%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg 97%, last year 100%)Week ending Sep 3: Very poor 0%, Poor 50%, Fair 50%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg 98%, last year 100%)Week ending Sep 10: Very poor 0%, Poor 50%, Fair 50%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg 100%, last year 100%)Week ending Sep 17: Very poor 0%, Poor 50%, Fair 50%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg 99%, last year 100%)Week ending Sep 24: Very poor 0%, Poor 30%, Fair 35%, Good 30%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 35% (5-yr avg —, last year 100%)Week ending Oct 1: Very poor 0%, Poor 26%, Fair 74%, Good 0%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)USDA forecast — week ending Aug 13USDA forecastHarvest begins — week ending Aug 20Harvest begins−35 pts — week ending Oct 1−35 ptsJun 11Jul 2Jul 23Aug 13Sep 3Sep 24
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 0% good or excellent, week ending Oct 1. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Green tip, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Vermont apple green tip, 20230%50%100%Green tip, week ending Apr 16: 10% (5-yr avg —, last year 9%)Green tip, week ending Apr 23: 22% (5-yr avg 37%, last year 23%)Green tip, week ending Apr 30: 60% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 68%)Green tip, week ending May 7: 85% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 91%)Green tip, week ending May 14: 100% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 99%)Green tip, week ending May 21: 100% (5-yr avg 99%, last year 100%)Green tip, week ending May 28: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year 100%)Apr 16Apr 23Apr 30May 7May 14May 21May 28
This year5-yr avgLast year

Green tip: 100% as of May 28.

Field progress

Pink, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Vermont apple pink, 20230%50%100%Pink, week ending Apr 30: 10% (5-yr avg —, last year 3%)Pink, week ending May 7: 25% (5-yr avg 24%, last year 12%)Pink, week ending May 14: 75% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 71%)Pink, week ending May 21: 100% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 97%)Pink, week ending May 28: 100% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 100%)Apr 30May 7May 14May 21May 28
This year5-yr avgLast year

Pink: 100% as of May 28 (5-yr avg 93%).

Field progress

Full bloom, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Vermont apple full bloom, 20230%50%100%Full bloom, week ending May 14: 45% (5-yr avg —, last year 34%)Full bloom, week ending May 21: 70% (5-yr avg 44%, last year 87%)Full bloom, week ending May 28: 97% (5-yr avg 70%, last year 98%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 4: 100% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 100%)May 14May 21May 28Jun 4
This year5-yr avgLast year

Full bloom: 100% as of Jun 4 (5-yr avg 81%).

Field progress

Petal fall, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Vermont apple petal fall, 20230%50%100%Petal fall, week ending May 14: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 3%)Petal fall, week ending May 21: 12% (5-yr avg —, last year 37%)Petal fall, week ending May 28: 80% (5-yr avg 39%, last year 78%)Petal fall, week ending Jun 4: 97% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 98%)Petal fall, week ending Jun 11: 100% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 100%)May 14May 21May 28Jun 4Jun 11
This year5-yr avgLast year

Petal fall: 100% as of Jun 11 (5-yr avg 77%).

Field progress

Fruit set, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Vermont apple fruit set, 20230%50%100%Fruit set, week ending May 21: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Fruit set, week ending May 28: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year 9%)Fruit set, week ending Jun 4: 10% (5-yr avg 32%, last year 44%)Fruit set, week ending Jun 11: 53% (5-yr avg 48%, last year 53%)Fruit set, week ending Jun 18: 99% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 86%)Fruit set, week ending Jul 2: 14% (5-yr avg —, last year —)May 21May 28Jun 4Jun 11Jun 18Jul 2
This year5-yr avgLast year

Fruit set: 14% as of Jul 2.

Field progress

Harvested, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Vermont apple harvested, 20230%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 30: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Aug 6: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 1%)Harvested, week ending Aug 13: 0% (5-yr avg 1%, last year 4%)Harvested, week ending Aug 20: 1% (5-yr avg 6%, last year 13%)Harvested, week ending Aug 27: 2% (5-yr avg 12%, last year 15%)Harvested, week ending Sep 3: 9% (5-yr avg 22%, last year 24%)Harvested, week ending Sep 10: 20% (5-yr avg 28%, last year 27%)Harvested, week ending Sep 17: 30% (5-yr avg 34%, last year 31%)Harvested, week ending Sep 24: 35% (5-yr avg 43%, last year 37%)Harvested, week ending Oct 1: 55% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 54%)Harvested, week ending Oct 8: 65% (5-yr avg 76%, last year 69%)Harvested, week ending Oct 15: 80% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 96%)Harvested, week ending Oct 22: 86% (5-yr avg 97%, last year 100%)Harvested, week ending Oct 29: 97% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Jul 30Aug 13Aug 27Sep 10Sep 24Oct 8Oct 22
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 97% as of Oct 29.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Vermont apple crop: USDA first forecast vs final010203040million lb2010: no forecast · final 35.0 million lb20102011: no forecast · final 33.5 million lb20112012: no forecast · final 25.5 million lb20122013: no forecast · final 34.0 million lb20132014: no forecast · final 29.4 million lb20142015: no forecast · final 38.3 million lb20152016: no forecast · final 30.0 million lb20162017: no forecast · final 30.9 million lb20172018: Aug forecast 20.1 million lb · final pending2018
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million lb)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
201820.1 Augustpending———
2017—30.9—$23M0.3%
2016—30.0—$20M0.3%
2015—38.3—$16M0.4%
2014—29.4—$11M0.2%
2013—34.0—$14M0.3%
2012—25.5—$10M0.3%
2011—33.5—$8M0.4%
2010—35.0—$10M0.4%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

Vermont apple crop: fresh market vs processing010203040million lb2010: fresh 27.0, processing 6.0, not sold 0.0 million lb — 82% fresh20102011: fresh 16.0, processing 10.5, not sold 0.5 million lb — 59% fresh20112012: fresh 17.5, processing 6.5, not sold 0.0 million lb — 73% fresh20122013: fresh 26.0, processing 5.0, not sold 2.5 million lb — 78% fresh20132014: fresh 23.8, processing 4.4, not sold 0.1 million lb — 84% fresh20142015: fresh 32.7, processing 5.3, not sold 0.3 million lb — 85% fresh20152016: fresh 24.0, processing 5.8, not sold 0.2 million lb — 80% fresh20162017: fresh 24.3, processing 6.4, not sold 0.2 million lb — 79% fresh2017
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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