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New York · crop watch

New York apple crop

USDA last rated the 2020 New York apple crop for the week ending Sep 27, when 31% was good or excellent, versus 51% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 100% complete. USDA's August forecast puts the 2020 crop at 1,300.0 million lb, down 1.5% from last year's final of 1,320.0.

Last rated week ending Sep 27, 2020

Good to excellent · last reading

31%of the crop

Share of the 2020 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 27.

–

100%

Harvested

As of Nov 22.

▼

1,350

million lb, 2026 forecast

−9.7% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 27

New York apple condition held at 47% good-excellent

For the week ending September 27, 2026, New York's apple crop rated 47% good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week but well above the 23% mark logged the same week last year. Poor condition stood at 18%. Harvest reached 45% complete, running slightly behind both the five-year average of 48% and last year's 47% pace at this point. USDA's August forecast put the 2026 crop at 1,350 million pounds, down 9.7% from last year's final total of 1,495 million pounds. New York crops have typically finished 5.1% larger than their first forecast, so the final number may come in above this estimate. Harvest progress bears watching as picking continues into fall.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±5.5%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2020

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
New York apple crop condition, 20200%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jul 19: Very poor 1%, Poor 1%, Fair 53%, Good 38%, Excellent 7% — good+excellent 45% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jul 26: Very poor 0%, Poor 9%, Fair 45%, Good 38%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 46% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Aug 2: Very poor 0%, Poor 15%, Fair 39%, Good 38%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 46% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Aug 9: Very poor 0%, Poor 17%, Fair 36%, Good 33%, Excellent 14% — good+excellent 47% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Aug 16: Very poor 0%, Poor 19%, Fair 38%, Good 33%, Excellent 10% — good+excellent 43% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Aug 23: Very poor 0%, Poor 15%, Fair 34%, Good 36%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 51% (5-yr avg 40%, last year 46%)Week ending Aug 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 18%, Fair 41%, Good 41%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 41% (5-yr avg 39%, last year 36%)Week ending Sep 6: Very poor 1%, Poor 15%, Fair 41%, Good 34%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 43% (5-yr avg 38%, last year 40%)Week ending Sep 13: Very poor 1%, Poor 15%, Fair 39%, Good 29%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 45% (5-yr avg 41%, last year 42%)Week ending Sep 20: Very poor 1%, Poor 17%, Fair 46%, Good 24%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 36% (5-yr avg 47%, last year 53%)Week ending Sep 27: Very poor 0%, Poor 18%, Fair 51%, Good 22%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 31% (5-yr avg —, last year 51%)Harvest begins — week ending Jul 26Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 16USDA forecast−10 pts — week ending Aug 30−10 ptsJul 19Aug 2Aug 16Aug 30Sep 13Sep 27
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 31% good or excellent, week ending Sep 27. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Green tip, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York apple green tip, 20200%50%100%Green tip, week ending Apr 5: 1% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 1%)Green tip, week ending Apr 12: 15% (5-yr avg 12%, last year 4%)Green tip, week ending Apr 19: 19% (5-yr avg 21%, last year 13%)Green tip, week ending Apr 26: 21% (5-yr avg 32%, last year 20%)Green tip, week ending May 3: 34% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 40%)Green tip, week ending May 10: 48% (5-yr avg 70%, last year 48%)Green tip, week ending May 17: 61% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 60%)Green tip, week ending May 24: 73% (5-yr avg —, last year 76%)Green tip, week ending May 31: 86% (5-yr avg —, last year 86%)Green tip, week ending Jun 7: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year 93%)Green tip, week ending Jun 14: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year 97%)Green tip, week ending Jun 21: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year 99%)Green tip, week ending Jun 28: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year 100%)Apr 5Apr 19May 3May 17May 31Jun 14Jun 28
This year5-yr avgLast year

Green tip: 100% as of Jun 28.

Field progress

Pink, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York apple pink, 20200%50%100%Pink, week ending Apr 12: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year 0%)Pink, week ending Apr 19: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year 0%)Pink, week ending Apr 26: 10% (5-yr avg —, last year 1%)Pink, week ending May 3: 15% (5-yr avg 22%, last year 14%)Pink, week ending May 10: 28% (5-yr avg 34%, last year 20%)Pink, week ending May 17: 42% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 37%)Pink, week ending May 24: 55% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 55%)Pink, week ending May 31: 69% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 65%)Pink, week ending Jun 7: 82% (5-yr avg —, last year 77%)Pink, week ending Jun 14: 90% (5-yr avg —, last year 88%)Pink, week ending Jun 21: 97% (5-yr avg —, last year 96%)Pink, week ending Jun 28: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year 99%)Apr 12Apr 26May 10May 24Jun 7Jun 21
This year5-yr avgLast year

Pink: 100% as of Jun 28.

Field progress

Full bloom, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York apple full bloom, 20200%50%100%Full bloom, week ending May 3: 6% (5-yr avg —, last year 0%)Full bloom, week ending May 10: 14% (5-yr avg 16%, last year 6%)Full bloom, week ending May 17: 22% (5-yr avg 43%, last year 22%)Full bloom, week ending May 24: 36% (5-yr avg 65%, last year 37%)Full bloom, week ending May 31: 49% (5-yr avg 75%, last year 42%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 7: 62% (5-yr avg —, last year 53%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 14: 70% (5-yr avg —, last year 66%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 21: 71% (5-yr avg —, last year 71%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 28: 90% (5-yr avg —, last year 81%)Full bloom, week ending Jul 5: 91% (5-yr avg —, last year 91%)Full bloom, week ending Jul 12: 98% (5-yr avg —, last year 95%)Full bloom, week ending Jul 19: 99% (5-yr avg —, last year 96%)Full bloom, week ending Jul 26: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year 98%)Full bloom, week ending Aug 2: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year 99%)Full bloom, week ending Aug 9: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year 100%)May 3May 17May 31Jun 14Jun 28Jul 12Jul 26Aug 9
This year5-yr avgLast year

Full bloom: 100% as of Aug 9.

Field progress

Harvested, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York apple harvested, 20200%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 19: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 26: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Aug 2: 3% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Aug 9: 7% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Aug 16: 10% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Aug 23: 13% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Aug 30: 16% (5-yr avg 16%, last year 11%)Harvested, week ending Sep 6: 21% (5-yr avg 22%, last year 18%)Harvested, week ending Sep 13: 34% (5-yr avg 29%, last year 23%)Harvested, week ending Sep 20: 43% (5-yr avg 41%, last year 33%)Harvested, week ending Sep 27: 51% (5-yr avg 51%, last year 42%)Harvested, week ending Oct 4: 55% (5-yr avg 59%, last year 53%)Harvested, week ending Oct 11: 59% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 60%)Harvested, week ending Oct 18: 67% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 68%)Harvested, week ending Oct 25: 81% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 77%)Harvested, week ending Nov 1: 97% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 86%)Harvested, week ending Nov 8: 98% (5-yr avg —, last year 92%)Harvested, week ending Nov 15: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year 95%)Harvested, week ending Nov 22: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year 97%)Jul 19Aug 9Aug 30Sep 20Oct 11Nov 1Nov 22
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 100% as of Nov 22.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

New York apple crop: USDA first forecast vs final05001,0001,500million lb2015: no forecast · final 1,400.0 million lb20152016: no forecast · final 1,250.0 million lb20162017: no forecast · final 1,350.0 million lb20172018: Aug forecast 1,300.0 million lb · final 1,395.0 million lb (+7.3%)+7.3%20182019: Aug forecast 1,250.0 million lb · final 1,320.0 million lb (+5.6%)+5.6%20192020: Aug forecast 1,300.0 million lb · final 1,385.0 million lb (+6.5%)+6.5%20202021: Aug forecast 1,350.0 million lb · final 1,380.0 million lb (+2.2%)+2.2%20212022: Aug forecast 1,450.0 million lb · final 1,480.0 million lb (+2.1%)+2.1%20222023: Aug forecast 1,100.0 million lb · final 1,310.0 million lb (+19.1%)+19.1%20232024: Aug forecast 1,300.0 million lb · final 1,290.0 million lb (-0.8%)−0.8%20242025: Aug forecast 1,450.0 million lb · final 1,495.0 million lb (+3.1%)+3.1%20252026: Aug forecast 1,350.0 million lb · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million lb)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
20261,350.0 Augustpending———
20251,450.0 August1,495.0+3.1%$352M13.5%
20241,300.0 August1,290.0−0.8%$332M11.8%
20231,100.0 August1,310.0+19.1%$395M11.4%
20221,450.0 August1,480.0+2.1%$343M14.8%
20211,350.0 August1,380.0+2.2%$375M13.7%
20201,300.0 August1,385.0+6.5%$328M13.4%
20191,250.0 August1,320.0+5.6%$276M11.9%
20181,300.0 August1,395.0+7.3%$262M13.6%
2017—1,350.0—$357M11.7%
2016—1,250.0—$346M10.9%
2015—1,400.0—$287M13.9%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

New York apple crop: fresh market vs processing05001,0001,500million lb2014: fresh 645.0, processing 645.0, not sold 0.0 million lb — 50% fresh20142015: fresh 735.0, processing 655.0, not sold 10.0 million lb — 53% fresh20152016: fresh 700.0, processing 540.0, not sold 10.0 million lb — 56% fresh20162017: fresh 735.0, processing 595.0, not sold 20.0 million lb — 54% fresh20172018: fresh 747.7, processing 629.1, not sold 18.2 million lb — 54% fresh20182019: fresh 722.0, processing 596.6, not sold 1.4 million lb — 55% fresh20192020: fresh 684.2, processing 699.4, not sold 1.4 million lb — 49% fresh20202021: fresh 750.7, processing 622.4, not sold 6.9 million lb — 54% fresh20212022: fresh 729.6, processing 740.0, not sold 10.4 million lb — 49% fresh20222023: fresh 715.3, processing 584.3, not sold 10.4 million lb — 55% fresh20232024: fresh 517.3, processing 758.5, not sold 14.2 million lb — 40% fresh20242025: fresh 627.9, processing 865.6, not sold 1.5 million lb — 42% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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