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New York · crop watch

New York apple crop

As of the week ending Sep 27, 47% of the 2026 New York apple crop is rated good or excellent, versus 23% at this point last year. Harvest is 45% complete (five-year average 48%). USDA's August forecast puts the 2026 crop at 1,350.0 million lb, down 9.7% from last year's final of 1,495.0.

Week ending Sep 27, 2026

Good to excellent

47%of the crop

Share of the 2026 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 27.

▼

45%

Harvested

−3 points against the five-year pace of 48%.

▼

1,350

million lb, 2026 forecast

−9.7% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 27

New York apple condition held at 47% good-excellent

For the week ending September 27, 2026, New York's apple crop rated 47% good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week but well above the 23% mark logged the same week last year. Poor condition stood at 18%. Harvest reached 45% complete, running slightly behind both the five-year average of 48% and last year's 47% pace at this point. USDA's August forecast put the 2026 crop at 1,350 million pounds, down 9.7% from last year's final total of 1,495 million pounds. New York crops have typically finished 5.1% larger than their first forecast, so the final number may come in above this estimate. Harvest progress bears watching as picking continues into fall.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±5.5%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2026

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
New York apple crop condition, 20260%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jul 19: Very poor 0%, Poor 24%, Fair 61%, Good 8%, Excellent 7% — good+excellent 15% (5-yr avg 41%, last year 30%)Week ending Jul 26: Very poor 0%, Poor 24%, Fair 32%, Good 35%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 44% (5-yr avg 40%, last year 21%)Week ending Aug 2: Very poor 0%, Poor 24%, Fair 32%, Good 35%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 44% (5-yr avg 43%, last year 20%)Week ending Aug 9: Very poor 0%, Poor 24%, Fair 32%, Good 35%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 44% (5-yr avg 43%, last year 20%)Week ending Aug 16: Very poor 0%, Poor 24%, Fair 29%, Good 39%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 47% (5-yr avg 44%, last year 21%)Week ending Aug 23: Very poor 0%, Poor 24%, Fair 29%, Good 39%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 47% (5-yr avg 44%, last year 22%)Week ending Aug 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 24%, Fair 29%, Good 39%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 47% (5-yr avg 51%, last year 21%)Week ending Sep 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 24%, Fair 29%, Good 39%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 47% (5-yr avg 53%, last year 23%)Week ending Sep 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 18%, Fair 35%, Good 39%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 47% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 40%)Week ending Sep 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 18%, Fair 35%, Good 39%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 47% (5-yr avg 51%, last year 23%)Week ending Sep 27: Very poor 0%, Poor 18%, Fair 35%, Good 39%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 47% (5-yr avg —, last year 23%)Harvest begins — week ending Jul 19Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 16USDA forecastJul 19Aug 2Aug 16Aug 30Sep 13Sep 27
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 47% good or excellent, week ending Sep 27. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Green tip, 2026

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York apple green tip, 20260%50%100%Green tip, week ending Apr 5: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Green tip, week ending Apr 12: 14% (5-yr avg 13%, last year 22%)Green tip, week ending Apr 19: 17% (5-yr avg 25%, last year 26%)Green tip, week ending Apr 26: 26% (5-yr avg 39%, last year 36%)Green tip, week ending May 3: 43% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 55%)Green tip, week ending May 10: 62% (5-yr avg 70%, last year 64%)Green tip, week ending May 17: 73% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 72%)Green tip, week ending May 24: 82% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 84%)Green tip, week ending May 31: 94% (5-yr avg —, last year 94%)Green tip, week ending Jun 7: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Green tip, week ending Jun 14: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 5Apr 19May 3May 17May 31Jun 14
This year5-yr avgLast year

Green tip: 100% as of Jun 14.

Field progress

Pink, 2026

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York apple pink, 20260%50%100%Pink, week ending Apr 12: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Pink, week ending Apr 19: 1% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 1%)Pink, week ending Apr 26: 7% (5-yr avg 12%, last year 9%)Pink, week ending May 3: 25% (5-yr avg 31%, last year 27%)Pink, week ending May 10: 44% (5-yr avg 48%, last year 41%)Pink, week ending May 17: 63% (5-yr avg 63%, last year 58%)Pink, week ending May 24: 75% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 76%)Pink, week ending May 31: 85% (5-yr avg —, last year 86%)Pink, week ending Jun 7: 93% (5-yr avg —, last year 93%)Pink, week ending Jun 14: 98% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 12Apr 26May 10May 24Jun 7
This year5-yr avgLast year

Pink: 98% as of Jun 14.

Field progress

Full bloom, 2026

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York apple full bloom, 20260%50%100%Full bloom, week ending May 3: 5% (5-yr avg —, last year 3%)Full bloom, week ending May 10: 24% (5-yr avg 28%, last year 19%)Full bloom, week ending May 17: 48% (5-yr avg 47%, last year 37%)Full bloom, week ending May 24: 59% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 55%)Full bloom, week ending May 31: 70% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 74%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 7: 80% (5-yr avg —, last year 84%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 14: 93% (5-yr avg —, last year 95%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 21: 98% (5-yr avg —, last year —)May 3May 10May 17May 24May 31Jun 7Jun 14Jun 21
This year5-yr avgLast year

Full bloom: 98% as of Jun 21.

Field progress

Harvested, 2026

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York apple harvested, 20260%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 19: 3% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 26: 4% (5-yr avg 1%, last year 1%)Harvested, week ending Aug 2: 5% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 4%)Harvested, week ending Aug 9: 7% (5-yr avg 5%, last year 6%)Harvested, week ending Aug 16: 9% (5-yr avg 9%, last year 9%)Harvested, week ending Aug 23: 12% (5-yr avg 12%, last year 15%)Harvested, week ending Aug 30: 16% (5-yr avg 16%, last year 22%)Harvested, week ending Sep 6: 22% (5-yr avg 22%, last year 30%)Harvested, week ending Sep 13: 27% (5-yr avg 28%, last year 39%)Harvested, week ending Sep 20: 40% (5-yr avg 37%, last year 43%)Harvested, week ending Sep 27: 45% (5-yr avg 48%, last year 47%)Jul 19Aug 2Aug 16Aug 30Sep 13Sep 27
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 45% as of Sep 27 (5-yr avg 48%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

New York apple crop: USDA first forecast vs final05001,0001,500million lb2015: no forecast · final 1,400.0 million lb20152016: no forecast · final 1,250.0 million lb20162017: no forecast · final 1,350.0 million lb20172018: Aug forecast 1,300.0 million lb · final 1,395.0 million lb (+7.3%)+7.3%20182019: Aug forecast 1,250.0 million lb · final 1,320.0 million lb (+5.6%)+5.6%20192020: Aug forecast 1,300.0 million lb · final 1,385.0 million lb (+6.5%)+6.5%20202021: Aug forecast 1,350.0 million lb · final 1,380.0 million lb (+2.2%)+2.2%20212022: Aug forecast 1,450.0 million lb · final 1,480.0 million lb (+2.1%)+2.1%20222023: Aug forecast 1,100.0 million lb · final 1,310.0 million lb (+19.1%)+19.1%20232024: Aug forecast 1,300.0 million lb · final 1,290.0 million lb (-0.8%)−0.8%20242025: Aug forecast 1,450.0 million lb · final 1,495.0 million lb (+3.1%)+3.1%20252026: Aug forecast 1,350.0 million lb · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million lb)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
20261,350.0 Augustpending———
20251,450.0 August1,495.0+3.1%$352M13.5%
20241,300.0 August1,290.0−0.8%$332M11.8%
20231,100.0 August1,310.0+19.1%$395M11.4%
20221,450.0 August1,480.0+2.1%$343M14.8%
20211,350.0 August1,380.0+2.2%$375M13.7%
20201,300.0 August1,385.0+6.5%$328M13.4%
20191,250.0 August1,320.0+5.6%$276M11.9%
20181,300.0 August1,395.0+7.3%$262M13.6%
2017—1,350.0—$357M11.7%
2016—1,250.0—$346M10.9%
2015—1,400.0—$287M13.9%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

New York apple crop: fresh market vs processing05001,0001,500million lb2014: fresh 645.0, processing 645.0, not sold 0.0 million lb — 50% fresh20142015: fresh 735.0, processing 655.0, not sold 10.0 million lb — 53% fresh20152016: fresh 700.0, processing 540.0, not sold 10.0 million lb — 56% fresh20162017: fresh 735.0, processing 595.0, not sold 20.0 million lb — 54% fresh20172018: fresh 747.7, processing 629.1, not sold 18.2 million lb — 54% fresh20182019: fresh 722.0, processing 596.6, not sold 1.4 million lb — 55% fresh20192020: fresh 684.2, processing 699.4, not sold 1.4 million lb — 49% fresh20202021: fresh 750.7, processing 622.4, not sold 6.9 million lb — 54% fresh20212022: fresh 729.6, processing 740.0, not sold 10.4 million lb — 49% fresh20222023: fresh 715.3, processing 584.3, not sold 10.4 million lb — 55% fresh20232024: fresh 517.3, processing 758.5, not sold 14.2 million lb — 40% fresh20242025: fresh 627.9, processing 865.6, not sold 1.5 million lb — 42% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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