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New York · crop watch

New York apple crop

USDA last rated the 2023 New York apple crop for the week ending Oct 1, when 42% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 97% complete. USDA's August forecast puts the 2023 crop at 1,100.0 million lb, down 25.7% from last year's final of 1,480.0.

Last rated week ending Oct 1, 2023

Good to excellent · last reading

42%of the crop

Share of the 2023 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Oct 1.

–

97%

Harvested

As of Nov 19.

▼

1,350

million lb, 2026 forecast

−9.7% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 27

New York apple condition held at 47% good-excellent

For the week ending September 27, 2026, New York's apple crop rated 47% good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week but well above the 23% mark logged the same week last year. Poor condition stood at 18%. Harvest reached 45% complete, running slightly behind both the five-year average of 48% and last year's 47% pace at this point. USDA's August forecast put the 2026 crop at 1,350 million pounds, down 9.7% from last year's final total of 1,495 million pounds. New York crops have typically finished 5.1% larger than their first forecast, so the final number may come in above this estimate. Harvest progress bears watching as picking continues into fall.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±5.5%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2023

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
New York apple crop condition, 20230%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jul 23: Very poor 20%, Poor 20%, Fair 40%, Good 13%, Excellent 7% — good+excellent 20% (5-yr avg —, last year 43%)Week ending Jul 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 72%, Good 22%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 28% (5-yr avg —, last year 33%)Week ending Aug 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 71%, Good 21%, Excellent 7% — good+excellent 28% (5-yr avg —, last year 42%)Week ending Aug 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 72%, Good 21%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 27% (5-yr avg —, last year 36%)Week ending Aug 20: Very poor 1%, Poor 1%, Fair 71%, Good 21%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 27% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 36%)Week ending Aug 27: Very poor 14%, Poor 15%, Fair 43%, Good 22%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 28% (5-yr avg 46%, last year 34%)Week ending Sep 3: Very poor 14%, Poor 15%, Fair 43%, Good 22%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 28% (5-yr avg 53%, last year 58%)Week ending Sep 10: Very poor 14%, Poor 16%, Fair 42%, Good 22%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 28% (5-yr avg 55%, last year 65%)Week ending Sep 17: Very poor 14%, Poor 15%, Fair 43%, Good 22%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 28% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 65%)Week ending Sep 24: Very poor 14%, Poor 16%, Fair 28%, Good 38%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 42% (5-yr avg —, last year 64%)Week ending Oct 1: Very poor 14%, Poor 16%, Fair 28%, Good 37%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 42% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvest begins — week ending Jul 30Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 13USDA forecastJul 23Aug 6Aug 20Sep 3Sep 17Oct 1
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 42% good or excellent, week ending Oct 1. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Green tip, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York apple green tip, 20230%50%100%Green tip, week ending Apr 2: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Green tip, week ending Apr 9: 3% (5-yr avg 5%, last year 9%)Green tip, week ending Apr 16: 18% (5-yr avg 13%, last year 16%)Green tip, week ending Apr 23: 32% (5-yr avg 21%, last year 32%)Green tip, week ending Apr 30: 46% (5-yr avg 37%, last year 62%)Green tip, week ending May 7: 70% (5-yr avg 53%, last year 72%)Green tip, week ending May 14: 77% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 83%)Green tip, week ending May 21: 92% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 89%)Green tip, week ending May 28: 100% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 92%)Apr 2Apr 16Apr 30May 14May 28
This year5-yr avgLast year

Green tip: 100% as of May 28 (5-yr avg 87%).

Field progress

Pink, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York apple pink, 20230%50%100%Pink, week ending Apr 16: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 0%)Pink, week ending Apr 23: 5% (5-yr avg —, last year 0%)Pink, week ending Apr 30: 20% (5-yr avg 14%, last year 15%)Pink, week ending May 7: 34% (5-yr avg 32%, last year 54%)Pink, week ending May 14: 54% (5-yr avg 45%, last year 71%)Pink, week ending May 21: 91% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 77%)Pink, week ending May 28: 100% (5-yr avg 71%, last year 80%)Apr 16Apr 23Apr 30May 7May 14May 21May 28
This year5-yr avgLast year

Pink: 100% as of May 28 (5-yr avg 71%).

Field progress

Full bloom, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York apple full bloom, 20230%50%100%Full bloom, week ending Apr 30: 14% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Full bloom, week ending May 7: 28% (5-yr avg 13%, last year 32%)Full bloom, week ending May 14: 48% (5-yr avg 29%, last year 58%)Full bloom, week ending May 21: 90% (5-yr avg 45%, last year 68%)Full bloom, week ending May 28: 95% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 72%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 4: 97% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 81%)Apr 30May 7May 14May 21May 28Jun 4
This year5-yr avgLast year

Full bloom: 97% as of Jun 4 (5-yr avg 62%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York apple harvested, 20230%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 23: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Jul 30: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year 1%)Harvested, week ending Aug 6: 3% (5-yr avg —, last year 3%)Harvested, week ending Aug 13: 5% (5-yr avg —, last year 6%)Harvested, week ending Aug 20: 7% (5-yr avg —, last year 9%)Harvested, week ending Aug 27: 10% (5-yr avg 12%, last year 12%)Harvested, week ending Sep 3: 14% (5-yr avg 21%, last year 21%)Harvested, week ending Sep 10: 17% (5-yr avg 26%, last year 25%)Harvested, week ending Sep 17: 27% (5-yr avg 34%, last year 33%)Harvested, week ending Sep 24: 36% (5-yr avg 45%, last year 48%)Harvested, week ending Oct 1: 50% (5-yr avg 54%, last year 64%)Harvested, week ending Oct 8: 61% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 71%)Harvested, week ending Oct 15: 64% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 75%)Harvested, week ending Oct 22: 74% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 78%)Harvested, week ending Oct 29: 86% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 89%)Harvested, week ending Nov 5: 90% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 93%)Harvested, week ending Nov 12: 94% (5-yr avg —, last year 97%)Harvested, week ending Nov 19: 97% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Jul 23Aug 13Sep 3Sep 24Oct 15Nov 5
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 97% as of Nov 19.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

New York apple crop: USDA first forecast vs final05001,0001,500million lb2015: no forecast · final 1,400.0 million lb20152016: no forecast · final 1,250.0 million lb20162017: no forecast · final 1,350.0 million lb20172018: Aug forecast 1,300.0 million lb · final 1,395.0 million lb (+7.3%)+7.3%20182019: Aug forecast 1,250.0 million lb · final 1,320.0 million lb (+5.6%)+5.6%20192020: Aug forecast 1,300.0 million lb · final 1,385.0 million lb (+6.5%)+6.5%20202021: Aug forecast 1,350.0 million lb · final 1,380.0 million lb (+2.2%)+2.2%20212022: Aug forecast 1,450.0 million lb · final 1,480.0 million lb (+2.1%)+2.1%20222023: Aug forecast 1,100.0 million lb · final 1,310.0 million lb (+19.1%)+19.1%20232024: Aug forecast 1,300.0 million lb · final 1,290.0 million lb (-0.8%)−0.8%20242025: Aug forecast 1,450.0 million lb · final 1,495.0 million lb (+3.1%)+3.1%20252026: Aug forecast 1,350.0 million lb · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million lb)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
20261,350.0 Augustpending———
20251,450.0 August1,495.0+3.1%$352M13.5%
20241,300.0 August1,290.0−0.8%$332M11.8%
20231,100.0 August1,310.0+19.1%$395M11.4%
20221,450.0 August1,480.0+2.1%$343M14.8%
20211,350.0 August1,380.0+2.2%$375M13.7%
20201,300.0 August1,385.0+6.5%$328M13.4%
20191,250.0 August1,320.0+5.6%$276M11.9%
20181,300.0 August1,395.0+7.3%$262M13.6%
2017—1,350.0—$357M11.7%
2016—1,250.0—$346M10.9%
2015—1,400.0—$287M13.9%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

New York apple crop: fresh market vs processing05001,0001,500million lb2014: fresh 645.0, processing 645.0, not sold 0.0 million lb — 50% fresh20142015: fresh 735.0, processing 655.0, not sold 10.0 million lb — 53% fresh20152016: fresh 700.0, processing 540.0, not sold 10.0 million lb — 56% fresh20162017: fresh 735.0, processing 595.0, not sold 20.0 million lb — 54% fresh20172018: fresh 747.7, processing 629.1, not sold 18.2 million lb — 54% fresh20182019: fresh 722.0, processing 596.6, not sold 1.4 million lb — 55% fresh20192020: fresh 684.2, processing 699.4, not sold 1.4 million lb — 49% fresh20202021: fresh 750.7, processing 622.4, not sold 6.9 million lb — 54% fresh20212022: fresh 729.6, processing 740.0, not sold 10.4 million lb — 49% fresh20222023: fresh 715.3, processing 584.3, not sold 10.4 million lb — 55% fresh20232024: fresh 517.3, processing 758.5, not sold 14.2 million lb — 40% fresh20242025: fresh 627.9, processing 865.6, not sold 1.5 million lb — 42% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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