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New York · crop watch

New York apple crop

USDA last rated the 2021 New York apple crop for the week ending Oct 3, when 43% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 95% complete. USDA's August forecast puts the 2021 crop at 1,350.0 million lb, down 2.5% from last year's final of 1,385.0.

Last rated week ending Oct 3, 2021

Good to excellent · last reading

43%of the crop

Share of the 2021 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Oct 3.

–

95%

Harvested

As of Nov 28.

▼

1,350

million lb, 2026 forecast

−9.7% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 27

New York apple condition held at 47% good-excellent

For the week ending September 27, 2026, New York's apple crop rated 47% good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week but well above the 23% mark logged the same week last year. Poor condition stood at 18%. Harvest reached 45% complete, running slightly behind both the five-year average of 48% and last year's 47% pace at this point. USDA's August forecast put the 2026 crop at 1,350 million pounds, down 9.7% from last year's final total of 1,495 million pounds. New York crops have typically finished 5.1% larger than their first forecast, so the final number may come in above this estimate. Harvest progress bears watching as picking continues into fall.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±5.5%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2021

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
New York apple crop condition, 20210%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jul 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 42%, Good 46%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 58% (5-yr avg —, last year 45%)Week ending Jul 25: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 39%, Good 43%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 60% (5-yr avg —, last year 46%)Week ending Aug 1: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 39%, Good 43%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 60% (5-yr avg —, last year 46%)Week ending Aug 8: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 39%, Good 43%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 60% (5-yr avg —, last year 47%)Week ending Aug 15: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 36%, Good 44%, Excellent 19% — good+excellent 63% (5-yr avg —, last year 43%)Week ending Aug 22: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 35%, Good 43%, Excellent 22% — good+excellent 65% (5-yr avg 46%, last year 51%)Week ending Aug 29: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 35%, Good 43%, Excellent 22% — good+excellent 65% (5-yr avg 43%, last year 41%)Week ending Sep 5: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 35%, Good 43%, Excellent 22% — good+excellent 65% (5-yr avg 42%, last year 43%)Week ending Sep 12: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 33%, Good 45%, Excellent 22% — good+excellent 67% (5-yr avg 45%, last year 45%)Week ending Sep 19: Very poor 0%, Poor 16%, Fair 41%, Good 33%, Excellent 10% — good+excellent 43% (5-yr avg 49%, last year 36%)Week ending Sep 26: Very poor 6%, Poor 16%, Fair 35%, Good 31%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 43% (5-yr avg —, last year 31%)Week ending Oct 3: Very poor 6%, Poor 16%, Fair 35%, Good 31%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 43% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvest begins — week ending Jul 25Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 15USDA forecast−24 pts — week ending Sep 19−24 ptsJul 18Aug 1Aug 15Aug 29Sep 12Sep 26
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 43% good or excellent, week ending Oct 3. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Green tip, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York apple green tip, 20210%50%100%Green tip, week ending Apr 4: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Green tip, week ending Apr 11: 4% (5-yr avg 13%, last year 13%)Green tip, week ending Apr 18: 29% (5-yr avg 23%, last year 18%)Green tip, week ending Apr 25: 32% (5-yr avg 32%, last year 21%)Green tip, week ending May 2: 58% (5-yr avg 49%, last year 32%)Green tip, week ending May 9: 63% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 46%)Green tip, week ending May 16: 73% (5-yr avg 73%, last year 59%)Green tip, week ending May 23: 91% (5-yr avg —, last year 71%)Green tip, week ending May 30: 94% (5-yr avg —, last year 84%)Green tip, week ending Jun 6: 97% (5-yr avg —, last year 94%)Apr 4Apr 18May 2May 16May 30
This year5-yr avgLast year

Green tip: 97% as of Jun 6.

Field progress

Pink, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York apple pink, 20210%50%100%Pink, week ending Apr 18: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 1%)Pink, week ending Apr 25: 15% (5-yr avg —, last year 9%)Pink, week ending May 2: 43% (5-yr avg 20%, last year 14%)Pink, week ending May 9: 47% (5-yr avg 31%, last year 26%)Pink, week ending May 16: 49% (5-yr avg 49%, last year 40%)Pink, week ending May 23: 73% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 53%)Pink, week ending May 30: 76% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 67%)Pink, week ending Jun 6: 79% (5-yr avg —, last year 80%)Pink, week ending Jun 13: 82% (5-yr avg —, last year 89%)Pink, week ending Jun 20: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year 96%)Apr 18May 2May 16May 30Jun 13
This year5-yr avgLast year

Pink: 95% as of Jun 20.

Field progress

Full bloom, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York apple full bloom, 20210%50%100%Full bloom, week ending May 2: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Full bloom, week ending May 9: 24% (5-yr avg 14%, last year 13%)Full bloom, week ending May 16: 30% (5-yr avg 30%, last year 21%)Full bloom, week ending May 23: 52% (5-yr avg 53%, last year 34%)Full bloom, week ending May 30: 55% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 47%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 6: 58% (5-yr avg —, last year 60%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 13: 63% (5-yr avg —, last year 69%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 20: 73% (5-yr avg —, last year 71%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 27: 90% (5-yr avg —, last year 87%)Full bloom, week ending Jul 4: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year 91%)May 2May 16May 30Jun 13Jun 27
This year5-yr avgLast year

Full bloom: 95% as of Jul 4.

Field progress

Harvested, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York apple harvested, 20210%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 18: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 25: 2% (5-yr avg —, last year 1%)Harvested, week ending Aug 1: 3% (5-yr avg —, last year 3%)Harvested, week ending Aug 8: 5% (5-yr avg —, last year 6%)Harvested, week ending Aug 15: 9% (5-yr avg —, last year 10%)Harvested, week ending Aug 22: 10% (5-yr avg —, last year 13%)Harvested, week ending Aug 29: 12% (5-yr avg 14%, last year 16%)Harvested, week ending Sep 5: 18% (5-yr avg 21%, last year 20%)Harvested, week ending Sep 12: 28% (5-yr avg 28%, last year 32%)Harvested, week ending Sep 19: 36% (5-yr avg 40%, last year 42%)Harvested, week ending Sep 26: 45% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 50%)Harvested, week ending Oct 3: 56% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 54%)Harvested, week ending Oct 10: 65% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 58%)Harvested, week ending Oct 17: 71% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 66%)Harvested, week ending Oct 24: 77% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 79%)Harvested, week ending Oct 31: 78% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 95%)Harvested, week ending Nov 7: 80% (5-yr avg —, last year 98%)Harvested, week ending Nov 14: 85% (5-yr avg —, last year 100%)Harvested, week ending Nov 21: 90% (5-yr avg —, last year 100%)Harvested, week ending Nov 28: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Jul 18Aug 8Aug 29Sep 19Oct 10Oct 31Nov 21
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 95% as of Nov 28.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

New York apple crop: USDA first forecast vs final05001,0001,500million lb2015: no forecast · final 1,400.0 million lb20152016: no forecast · final 1,250.0 million lb20162017: no forecast · final 1,350.0 million lb20172018: Aug forecast 1,300.0 million lb · final 1,395.0 million lb (+7.3%)+7.3%20182019: Aug forecast 1,250.0 million lb · final 1,320.0 million lb (+5.6%)+5.6%20192020: Aug forecast 1,300.0 million lb · final 1,385.0 million lb (+6.5%)+6.5%20202021: Aug forecast 1,350.0 million lb · final 1,380.0 million lb (+2.2%)+2.2%20212022: Aug forecast 1,450.0 million lb · final 1,480.0 million lb (+2.1%)+2.1%20222023: Aug forecast 1,100.0 million lb · final 1,310.0 million lb (+19.1%)+19.1%20232024: Aug forecast 1,300.0 million lb · final 1,290.0 million lb (-0.8%)−0.8%20242025: Aug forecast 1,450.0 million lb · final 1,495.0 million lb (+3.1%)+3.1%20252026: Aug forecast 1,350.0 million lb · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million lb)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
20261,350.0 Augustpending———
20251,450.0 August1,495.0+3.1%$352M13.5%
20241,300.0 August1,290.0−0.8%$332M11.8%
20231,100.0 August1,310.0+19.1%$395M11.4%
20221,450.0 August1,480.0+2.1%$343M14.8%
20211,350.0 August1,380.0+2.2%$375M13.7%
20201,300.0 August1,385.0+6.5%$328M13.4%
20191,250.0 August1,320.0+5.6%$276M11.9%
20181,300.0 August1,395.0+7.3%$262M13.6%
2017—1,350.0—$357M11.7%
2016—1,250.0—$346M10.9%
2015—1,400.0—$287M13.9%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

New York apple crop: fresh market vs processing05001,0001,500million lb2014: fresh 645.0, processing 645.0, not sold 0.0 million lb — 50% fresh20142015: fresh 735.0, processing 655.0, not sold 10.0 million lb — 53% fresh20152016: fresh 700.0, processing 540.0, not sold 10.0 million lb — 56% fresh20162017: fresh 735.0, processing 595.0, not sold 20.0 million lb — 54% fresh20172018: fresh 747.7, processing 629.1, not sold 18.2 million lb — 54% fresh20182019: fresh 722.0, processing 596.6, not sold 1.4 million lb — 55% fresh20192020: fresh 684.2, processing 699.4, not sold 1.4 million lb — 49% fresh20202021: fresh 750.7, processing 622.4, not sold 6.9 million lb — 54% fresh20212022: fresh 729.6, processing 740.0, not sold 10.4 million lb — 49% fresh20222023: fresh 715.3, processing 584.3, not sold 10.4 million lb — 55% fresh20232024: fresh 517.3, processing 758.5, not sold 14.2 million lb — 40% fresh20242025: fresh 627.9, processing 865.6, not sold 1.5 million lb — 42% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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