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New York · crop watch

New York apple crop

USDA last rated the 2025 New York apple crop for the week ending Nov 16, when 30% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 98% complete. USDA's August forecast puts the 2025 crop at 1,450.0 million lb, up 12.4% from last year's final of 1,290.0.

Last rated week ending Nov 16, 2025

Good to excellent · last reading

30%of the crop

Share of the 2025 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Nov 16.

–

98%

Harvested

As of Nov 16.

▼

1,350

million lb, 2026 forecast

−9.7% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 27

New York apple condition held at 47% good-excellent

For the week ending September 27, 2026, New York's apple crop rated 47% good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week but well above the 23% mark logged the same week last year. Poor condition stood at 18%. Harvest reached 45% complete, running slightly behind both the five-year average of 48% and last year's 47% pace at this point. USDA's August forecast put the 2026 crop at 1,350 million pounds, down 9.7% from last year's final total of 1,495 million pounds. New York crops have typically finished 5.1% larger than their first forecast, so the final number may come in above this estimate. Harvest progress bears watching as picking continues into fall.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±5.5%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2025

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
New York apple crop condition, 20250%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jul 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 69%, Good 19%, Excellent 11% — good+excellent 30% (5-yr avg 44%, last year 52%)Week ending Jul 27: Very poor 2%, Poor 3%, Fair 74%, Good 15%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 21% (5-yr avg 46%, last year 62%)Week ending Aug 3: Very poor 3%, Poor 3%, Fair 74%, Good 15%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 20% (5-yr avg 48%, last year 64%)Week ending Aug 10: Very poor 3%, Poor 3%, Fair 74%, Good 15%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 20% (5-yr avg 48%, last year 70%)Week ending Aug 17: Very poor 2%, Poor 6%, Fair 71%, Good 16%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 21% (5-yr avg 50%, last year 69%)Week ending Aug 24: Very poor 2%, Poor 6%, Fair 70%, Good 17%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 22% (5-yr avg 47%, last year 70%)Week ending Aug 31: Very poor 6%, Poor 8%, Fair 65%, Good 18%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 21% (5-yr avg 55%, last year 83%)Week ending Sep 7: Very poor 6%, Poor 7%, Fair 64%, Good 21%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 23% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 82%)Week ending Sep 14: Very poor 7%, Poor 22%, Fair 31%, Good 22%, Excellent 18% — good+excellent 40% (5-yr avg 50%, last year 82%)Week ending Sep 21: Very poor 7%, Poor 7%, Fair 63%, Good 21%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 23% (5-yr avg 53%, last year 83%)Week ending Sep 28: Very poor 7%, Poor 7%, Fair 63%, Good 21%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 23% (5-yr avg —, last year 79%)Week ending Nov 16: Very poor 2%, Poor 5%, Fair 63%, Good 28%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 30% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvest begins — week ending Jul 20Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 17USDA forecast−17 pts — week ending Sep 21−17 ptsJul 20Aug 3Aug 17Aug 31Sep 14Sep 28
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 30% good or excellent, week ending Nov 16. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Green tip, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York apple green tip, 20250%50%100%Green tip, week ending Apr 6: 19% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 5%)Green tip, week ending Apr 13: 23% (5-yr avg 13%, last year 14%)Green tip, week ending Apr 20: 26% (5-yr avg 25%, last year 26%)Green tip, week ending Apr 27: 38% (5-yr avg 38%, last year 41%)Green tip, week ending May 4: 58% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 63%)Green tip, week ending May 11: 65% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 72%)Green tip, week ending May 18: 73% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 86%)Green tip, week ending May 25: 86% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 89%)Green tip, week ending Jun 1: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year 90%)Apr 6Apr 20May 4May 18Jun 1
This year5-yr avgLast year

Green tip: 95% as of Jun 1.

Field progress

Pink, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York apple pink, 20250%50%100%Pink, week ending Apr 13: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 4%)Pink, week ending Apr 20: 1% (5-yr avg 4%, last year 12%)Pink, week ending Apr 27: 10% (5-yr avg 14%, last year 17%)Pink, week ending May 4: 30% (5-yr avg 31%, last year 32%)Pink, week ending May 11: 43% (5-yr avg 47%, last year 45%)Pink, week ending May 18: 60% (5-yr avg 63%, last year 64%)Pink, week ending May 25: 79% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 83%)Pink, week ending Jun 1: 87% (5-yr avg —, last year 88%)Pink, week ending Jun 8: 94% (5-yr avg —, last year 89%)Apr 13Apr 27May 11May 25Jun 8
This year5-yr avgLast year

Pink: 94% as of Jun 8.

Field progress

Full bloom, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York apple full bloom, 20250%50%100%Full bloom, week ending Apr 27: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Full bloom, week ending May 4: 4% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Full bloom, week ending May 11: 21% (5-yr avg 29%, last year 19%)Full bloom, week ending May 18: 40% (5-yr avg 47%, last year 38%)Full bloom, week ending May 25: 58% (5-yr avg 67%, last year 80%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 1: 77% (5-yr avg 73%, last year 88%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 8: 85% (5-yr avg —, last year 89%)Full bloom, week ending Jun 15: 97% (5-yr avg —, last year 91%)Apr 27May 4May 11May 18May 25Jun 1Jun 8Jun 15
This year5-yr avgLast year

Full bloom: 97% as of Jun 15.

Field progress

Harvested, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

New York apple harvested, 20250%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 20: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 27: 1% (5-yr avg 1%, last year 2%)Harvested, week ending Aug 3: 4% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 5%)Harvested, week ending Aug 10: 6% (5-yr avg 6%, last year 7%)Harvested, week ending Aug 17: 10% (5-yr avg 9%, last year 12%)Harvested, week ending Aug 24: 16% (5-yr avg 12%, last year 15%)Harvested, week ending Aug 31: 23% (5-yr avg 15%, last year 16%)Harvested, week ending Sep 7: 31% (5-yr avg 21%, last year 21%)Harvested, week ending Sep 14: 40% (5-yr avg 29%, last year 26%)Harvested, week ending Sep 21: 43% (5-yr avg 39%, last year 39%)Harvested, week ending Sep 28: 48% (5-yr avg 50%, last year 49%)Harvested, week ending Nov 16: 98% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Jul 20Aug 3Aug 17Aug 31Sep 14Sep 28
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 98% as of Nov 16.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

New York apple crop: USDA first forecast vs final05001,0001,500million lb2015: no forecast · final 1,400.0 million lb20152016: no forecast · final 1,250.0 million lb20162017: no forecast · final 1,350.0 million lb20172018: Aug forecast 1,300.0 million lb · final 1,395.0 million lb (+7.3%)+7.3%20182019: Aug forecast 1,250.0 million lb · final 1,320.0 million lb (+5.6%)+5.6%20192020: Aug forecast 1,300.0 million lb · final 1,385.0 million lb (+6.5%)+6.5%20202021: Aug forecast 1,350.0 million lb · final 1,380.0 million lb (+2.2%)+2.2%20212022: Aug forecast 1,450.0 million lb · final 1,480.0 million lb (+2.1%)+2.1%20222023: Aug forecast 1,100.0 million lb · final 1,310.0 million lb (+19.1%)+19.1%20232024: Aug forecast 1,300.0 million lb · final 1,290.0 million lb (-0.8%)−0.8%20242025: Aug forecast 1,450.0 million lb · final 1,495.0 million lb (+3.1%)+3.1%20252026: Aug forecast 1,350.0 million lb · final pending2026
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million lb)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
20261,350.0 Augustpending———
20251,450.0 August1,495.0+3.1%$352M13.5%
20241,300.0 August1,290.0−0.8%$332M11.8%
20231,100.0 August1,310.0+19.1%$395M11.4%
20221,450.0 August1,480.0+2.1%$343M14.8%
20211,350.0 August1,380.0+2.2%$375M13.7%
20201,300.0 August1,385.0+6.5%$328M13.4%
20191,250.0 August1,320.0+5.6%$276M11.9%
20181,300.0 August1,395.0+7.3%$262M13.6%
2017—1,350.0—$357M11.7%
2016—1,250.0—$346M10.9%
2015—1,400.0—$287M13.9%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Utilization

Where the crop went

Fresh market against processing and unsold volume, by crop year.

New York apple crop: fresh market vs processing05001,0001,500million lb2014: fresh 645.0, processing 645.0, not sold 0.0 million lb — 50% fresh20142015: fresh 735.0, processing 655.0, not sold 10.0 million lb — 53% fresh20152016: fresh 700.0, processing 540.0, not sold 10.0 million lb — 56% fresh20162017: fresh 735.0, processing 595.0, not sold 20.0 million lb — 54% fresh20172018: fresh 747.7, processing 629.1, not sold 18.2 million lb — 54% fresh20182019: fresh 722.0, processing 596.6, not sold 1.4 million lb — 55% fresh20192020: fresh 684.2, processing 699.4, not sold 1.4 million lb — 49% fresh20202021: fresh 750.7, processing 622.4, not sold 6.9 million lb — 54% fresh20212022: fresh 729.6, processing 740.0, not sold 10.4 million lb — 49% fresh20222023: fresh 715.3, processing 584.3, not sold 10.4 million lb — 55% fresh20232024: fresh 517.3, processing 758.5, not sold 14.2 million lb — 40% fresh20242025: fresh 627.9, processing 865.6, not sold 1.5 million lb — 42% fresh2025
Fresh marketProcessingNot sold

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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