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Minnesota · crop watch

Minnesota potato crop

USDA last rated the 2020 Minnesota potato crop for the week ending Sep 20, when 92% was good or excellent, versus 90% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 95% complete (five-year average 88%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2020 crop at 17.4 million cwt, down 2.3% from last year's final of 17.8.

Last rated week ending Sep 20, 2020

Good to excellent · last reading

92%of the crop

Share of the 2020 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 20.

▲

95%

Harvested

+7 points against the five-year pace of 88%.

▼

16.6

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−7.3% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Minnesota potato forecast falls 7% from last year

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Minnesota potato crop at 16.6 million cwt, down 7.3% from last year's final total of 17.9 million cwt and further below the 19 million cwt produced two years ago. The figure marks a second straight year of decline. Minnesota forecasts have historically finished about 1.5% above their first reading, so the final number has more often landed slightly higher than initial estimates. The next USDA report will show whether that pattern holds for this crop.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±2.7%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2020

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Minnesota potato crop condition, 20200%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 7: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 12%, Good 62%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 88% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jun 14: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 11%, Good 64%, Excellent 24% — good+excellent 88% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jun 21: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 6%, Good 67%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 93% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 91%)Week ending Jun 28: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 6%, Good 64%, Excellent 29% — good+excellent 93% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 96%)Week ending Jul 5: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 9%, Good 62%, Excellent 28% — good+excellent 90% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 94%)Week ending Jul 12: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 6%, Good 57%, Excellent 36% — good+excellent 93% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 96%)Week ending Jul 19: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 9%, Good 59%, Excellent 31% — good+excellent 90% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 95%)Week ending Jul 26: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 10%, Good 57%, Excellent 32% — good+excellent 89% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 93%)Week ending Aug 2: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 10%, Good 56%, Excellent 33% — good+excellent 89% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 94%)Week ending Aug 9: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 10%, Good 58%, Excellent 31% — good+excellent 89% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 93%)Week ending Aug 16: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 7%, Good 61%, Excellent 31% — good+excellent 92% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 95%)Week ending Aug 23: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 8%, Good 60%, Excellent 32% — good+excellent 92% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 93%)Week ending Aug 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 7%, Good 58%, Excellent 34% — good+excellent 92% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 93%)Week ending Sep 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 7%, Good 61%, Excellent 31% — good+excellent 92% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 93%)Week ending Sep 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 8%, Good 59%, Excellent 33% — good+excellent 92% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 90%)Week ending Sep 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 8%, Good 60%, Excellent 32% — good+excellent 92% (5-yr avg —, last year 90%)Harvest begins — week ending Jul 26Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 20USDA forecastJun 7Jun 21Jul 5Jul 19Aug 2Aug 16Aug 30Sep 13
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 92% good or excellent, week ending Sep 20. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Minnesota potato planted, 20200%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 5: 0% (5-yr avg 0%, last year 0%)Planted, week ending Apr 12: 1% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 0%)Planted, week ending Apr 19: 3% (5-yr avg 11%, last year 0%)Planted, week ending Apr 26: 17% (5-yr avg 21%, last year 5%)Planted, week ending May 3: 44% (5-yr avg 41%, last year 18%)Planted, week ending May 10: 66% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 30%)Planted, week ending May 17: 75% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 59%)Planted, week ending May 24: 85% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 78%)Planted, week ending May 31: 94% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 87%)Planted, week ending Jun 7: 98% (5-yr avg 98%, last year 95%)Apr 5Apr 19May 3May 17May 31
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 98% as of Jun 7 (5-yr avg 98%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Minnesota potato harvested, 20200%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 19: 0% (5-yr avg 0%, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Jul 26: 8% (5-yr avg 1%, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Aug 2: 10% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 1%)Harvested, week ending Aug 9: 18% (5-yr avg 6%, last year 2%)Harvested, week ending Aug 16: 21% (5-yr avg 10%, last year 4%)Harvested, week ending Aug 23: 23% (5-yr avg 15%, last year 9%)Harvested, week ending Aug 30: 26% (5-yr avg 20%, last year 14%)Harvested, week ending Sep 6: 30% (5-yr avg 27%, last year 18%)Harvested, week ending Sep 13: 38% (5-yr avg 36%, last year 24%)Harvested, week ending Sep 20: 52% (5-yr avg 48%, last year 32%)Harvested, week ending Sep 27: 68% (5-yr avg 63%, last year 52%)Harvested, week ending Oct 4: 87% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 65%)Harvested, week ending Oct 11: 95% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 78%)Jul 19Aug 2Aug 16Aug 30Sep 13Sep 27Oct 11
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 95% as of Oct 11 (5-yr avg 88%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Minnesota potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final05101520million cwt2014: no forecast · final 16.4 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 16.2 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 17.2 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 18.4 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 18.7 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 18.0 million cwt · final 17.8 million cwt (-1.1%)−1.1%20192020: Nov forecast 17.4 million cwt · final 17.9 million cwt (+2.8%)+2.8%20202021: Nov forecast 17.6 million cwt · final 17.6 million cwt (-0.3%)−0.3%20212022: Nov forecast 19.3 million cwt · final 19.1 million cwt (-0.8%)−0.8%20222023: Nov forecast 18.4 million cwt · final 19.0 million cwt (+2.9%)+2.9%20232024: Nov forecast 17.0 million cwt · final 17.9 million cwt (+5.2%)+5.2%20242025: Nov forecast 16.6 million cwt · final 17.3 million cwt (+4.1%)+4.1%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202516.6 November17.3+4.1%$223M4.1%
202417.0 November17.9+5.2%$247M4.2%
202318.4 November19.0+2.9%$267M4.3%
202219.3 November19.1−0.8%$237M4.8%
202117.6 November17.6−0.3%$188M4.3%
202017.4 November17.9+2.8%$195M4.3%
201918.0 November17.8−1.1%$195M4.2%
2018—18.7—$180M4.2%
2017—18.4—$173M4.1%
2016—17.2—$156M3.8%
2015—16.2—$162M3.6%
2014—16.4—$152M3.7%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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