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Minnesota · crop watch

Minnesota potato crop

USDA last rated the 2023 Minnesota potato crop for the week ending Sep 17, when 85% was good or excellent, 4 points below the five-year average of 89%, versus 96% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 96% complete (five-year average 98%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2023 crop at 18.4 million cwt, down 3.8% from last year's final of 19.1.

Last rated week ending Sep 17, 2023

Good to excellent · last reading

85%of the crop

4 points below the five-year average for this week, and 96% a year ago.

▼

96%

Harvested

−2 points against the five-year pace of 98%.

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16.6

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−7.3% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Minnesota potato forecast falls 7% from last year

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Minnesota potato crop at 16.6 million cwt, down 7.3% from last year's final total of 17.9 million cwt and further below the 19 million cwt produced two years ago. The figure marks a second straight year of decline. Minnesota forecasts have historically finished about 1.5% above their first reading, so the final number has more often landed slightly higher than initial estimates. The next USDA report will show whether that pattern holds for this crop.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±2.7%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2023

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Minnesota potato crop condition, 20230%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 11: Very poor 1%, Poor 7%, Fair 17%, Good 52%, Excellent 23% — good+excellent 75% (5-yr avg —, last year 85%)Week ending Jun 18: Very poor 1%, Poor 6%, Fair 16%, Good 53%, Excellent 24% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 87%)Week ending Jun 25: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 14%, Good 62%, Excellent 22% — good+excellent 84% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 87%)Week ending Jul 2: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 17%, Good 53%, Excellent 29% — good+excellent 82% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 87%)Week ending Jul 9: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 18%, Good 51%, Excellent 30% — good+excellent 81% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 84%)Week ending Jul 16: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 14%, Good 60%, Excellent 25% — good+excellent 85% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 91%)Week ending Jul 23: Very poor 1%, Poor 1%, Fair 12%, Good 62%, Excellent 24% — good+excellent 86% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 96%)Week ending Jul 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 22%, Good 53%, Excellent 25% — good+excellent 78% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 95%)Week ending Aug 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 21%, Good 54%, Excellent 24% — good+excellent 78% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 96%)Week ending Aug 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 15%, Good 58%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 84% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 96%)Week ending Aug 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 15%, Good 59%, Excellent 25% — good+excellent 84% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 98%)Week ending Aug 27: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 15%, Good 59%, Excellent 25% — good+excellent 84% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 96%)Week ending Sep 3: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 14%, Good 59%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 85% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 96%)Week ending Sep 10: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 14%, Good 59%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 85% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 97%)Week ending Sep 17: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 14%, Good 59%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 85% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 96%)−8 pts — week ending Jul 30−8 ptsHarvest begins — week ending Aug 6Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 17USDA forecastJun 11Jun 25Jul 9Jul 23Aug 6Aug 20Sep 3Sep 17
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 85% good or excellent, week ending Sep 17. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Minnesota potato planted, 20230%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 2: 0% (5-yr avg 0%, last year 0%)Planted, week ending Apr 9: 0% (5-yr avg 0%, last year 0%)Planted, week ending Apr 16: 0% (5-yr avg 1%, last year 0%)Planted, week ending Apr 23: 0% (5-yr avg 5%, last year 0%)Planted, week ending Apr 30: 2% (5-yr avg 17%, last year 1%)Planted, week ending May 7: 16% (5-yr avg 37%, last year 7%)Planted, week ending May 14: 40% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 32%)Planted, week ending May 21: 56% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 54%)Planted, week ending May 28: 83% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 75%)Planted, week ending Jun 4: 97% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 87%)Apr 2Apr 16Apr 30May 14May 28
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 97% as of Jun 4 (5-yr avg 92%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Minnesota potato harvested, 20230%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 30: 0% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Aug 6: 2% (5-yr avg 5%, last year 2%)Harvested, week ending Aug 13: 4% (5-yr avg 9%, last year 3%)Harvested, week ending Aug 20: 10% (5-yr avg 12%, last year 4%)Harvested, week ending Aug 27: 14% (5-yr avg 15%, last year 7%)Harvested, week ending Sep 3: 19% (5-yr avg 20%, last year 14%)Harvested, week ending Sep 10: 29% (5-yr avg 28%, last year 30%)Harvested, week ending Sep 17: 46% (5-yr avg 41%, last year 47%)Harvested, week ending Sep 24: 64% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 63%)Harvested, week ending Oct 1: 75% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 80%)Harvested, week ending Oct 8: 84% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 92%)Harvested, week ending Oct 15: 92% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 97%)Harvested, week ending Oct 22: 93% (5-yr avg 96%, last year 100%)Harvested, week ending Oct 29: 96% (5-yr avg 98%, last year 100%)Jul 30Aug 13Aug 27Sep 10Sep 24Oct 8Oct 22
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 96% as of Oct 29 (5-yr avg 98%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Minnesota potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final05101520million cwt2014: no forecast · final 16.4 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 16.2 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 17.2 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 18.4 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 18.7 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 18.0 million cwt · final 17.8 million cwt (-1.1%)−1.1%20192020: Nov forecast 17.4 million cwt · final 17.9 million cwt (+2.8%)+2.8%20202021: Nov forecast 17.6 million cwt · final 17.6 million cwt (-0.3%)−0.3%20212022: Nov forecast 19.3 million cwt · final 19.1 million cwt (-0.8%)−0.8%20222023: Nov forecast 18.4 million cwt · final 19.0 million cwt (+2.9%)+2.9%20232024: Nov forecast 17.0 million cwt · final 17.9 million cwt (+5.2%)+5.2%20242025: Nov forecast 16.6 million cwt · final 17.3 million cwt (+4.1%)+4.1%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202516.6 November17.3+4.1%$223M4.1%
202417.0 November17.9+5.2%$247M4.2%
202318.4 November19.0+2.9%$267M4.3%
202219.3 November19.1−0.8%$237M4.8%
202117.6 November17.6−0.3%$188M4.3%
202017.4 November17.9+2.8%$195M4.3%
201918.0 November17.8−1.1%$195M4.2%
2018—18.7—$180M4.2%
2017—18.4—$173M4.1%
2016—17.2—$156M3.8%
2015—16.2—$162M3.6%
2014—16.4—$152M3.7%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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