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Minnesota · crop watch

Minnesota potato crop

USDA last rated the 2022 Minnesota potato crop for the week ending Sep 18, when 96% was good or excellent, versus 73% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 98% complete (five-year average 92%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2022 crop at 19.3 million cwt, up 9.9% from last year's final of 17.6.

Last rated week ending Sep 18, 2022

Good to excellent · last reading

96%of the crop

Share of the 2022 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 18.

▲

98%

Harvested

+6 points against the five-year pace of 92%.

▼

16.6

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−7.3% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Minnesota potato forecast falls 7% from last year

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Minnesota potato crop at 16.6 million cwt, down 7.3% from last year's final total of 17.9 million cwt and further below the 19 million cwt produced two years ago. The figure marks a second straight year of decline. Minnesota forecasts have historically finished about 1.5% above their first reading, so the final number has more often landed slightly higher than initial estimates. The next USDA report will show whether that pattern holds for this crop.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±2.7%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2022

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Minnesota potato crop condition, 20220%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 12: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 15%, Good 69%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 85% (5-yr avg —, last year 72%)Week ending Jun 19: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 13%, Good 70%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 87% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 65%)Week ending Jun 26: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 13%, Good 67%, Excellent 20% — good+excellent 87% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 61%)Week ending Jul 3: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 13%, Good 66%, Excellent 21% — good+excellent 87% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 71%)Week ending Jul 10: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 15%, Good 67%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 84% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 64%)Week ending Jul 17: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 9%, Good 70%, Excellent 21% — good+excellent 91% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 60%)Week ending Jul 24: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 4%, Good 69%, Excellent 27% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 61%)Week ending Jul 31: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 5%, Good 69%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 95% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 66%)Week ending Aug 7: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 4%, Good 69%, Excellent 27% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 60%)Week ending Aug 14: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 4%, Good 69%, Excellent 27% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 60%)Week ending Aug 21: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 2%, Good 78%, Excellent 20% — good+excellent 98% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 61%)Week ending Aug 28: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 4%, Good 73%, Excellent 23% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 70%)Week ending Sep 4: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 4%, Good 67%, Excellent 29% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 56%)Week ending Sep 11: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 3%, Good 68%, Excellent 29% — good+excellent 97% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 60%)Week ending Sep 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 4%, Good 67%, Excellent 29% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg —, last year 73%)Harvest begins — week ending Aug 7Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 18USDA forecastJun 12Jun 26Jul 10Jul 24Aug 7Aug 21Sep 4Sep 18
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 96% good or excellent, week ending Sep 18. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Minnesota potato planted, 20220%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 3: 0% (5-yr avg 0%, last year 1%)Planted, week ending Apr 10: 0% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 2%)Planted, week ending Apr 17: 0% (5-yr avg 5%, last year 5%)Planted, week ending Apr 24: 0% (5-yr avg 10%, last year 11%)Planted, week ending May 1: 1% (5-yr avg 26%, last year 39%)Planted, week ending May 8: 8% (5-yr avg 49%, last year 70%)Planted, week ending May 15: 36% (5-yr avg 67%, last year 81%)Planted, week ending May 22: 57% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 86%)Planted, week ending May 29: 78% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 89%)Planted, week ending Jun 5: 88% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 91%)Planted, week ending Jun 12: 93% (5-yr avg 98%, last year 94%)Planted, week ending Jun 19: 98% (5-yr avg 100%, last year 99%)Apr 3Apr 17May 1May 15May 29Jun 12
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 98% as of Jun 19 (5-yr avg 100%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Minnesota potato harvested, 20220%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 31: 0% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 1%)Harvested, week ending Aug 7: 2% (5-yr avg 7%, last year 7%)Harvested, week ending Aug 14: 3% (5-yr avg 12%, last year 17%)Harvested, week ending Aug 21: 4% (5-yr avg 15%, last year 21%)Harvested, week ending Aug 28: 7% (5-yr avg 19%, last year 23%)Harvested, week ending Sep 4: 15% (5-yr avg 24%, last year 27%)Harvested, week ending Sep 11: 32% (5-yr avg 31%, last year 31%)Harvested, week ending Sep 18: 49% (5-yr avg 43%, last year 40%)Harvested, week ending Sep 25: 65% (5-yr avg 59%, last year 56%)Harvested, week ending Oct 2: 83% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 71%)Harvested, week ending Oct 9: 93% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 81%)Harvested, week ending Oct 16: 98% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 91%)Jul 31Aug 14Aug 28Sep 11Sep 25Oct 9
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 98% as of Oct 16 (5-yr avg 92%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Minnesota potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final05101520million cwt2014: no forecast · final 16.4 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 16.2 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 17.2 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 18.4 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 18.7 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 18.0 million cwt · final 17.8 million cwt (-1.1%)−1.1%20192020: Nov forecast 17.4 million cwt · final 17.9 million cwt (+2.8%)+2.8%20202021: Nov forecast 17.6 million cwt · final 17.6 million cwt (-0.3%)−0.3%20212022: Nov forecast 19.3 million cwt · final 19.1 million cwt (-0.8%)−0.8%20222023: Nov forecast 18.4 million cwt · final 19.0 million cwt (+2.9%)+2.9%20232024: Nov forecast 17.0 million cwt · final 17.9 million cwt (+5.2%)+5.2%20242025: Nov forecast 16.6 million cwt · final 17.3 million cwt (+4.1%)+4.1%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202516.6 November17.3+4.1%$223M4.1%
202417.0 November17.9+5.2%$247M4.2%
202318.4 November19.0+2.9%$267M4.3%
202219.3 November19.1−0.8%$237M4.8%
202117.6 November17.6−0.3%$188M4.3%
202017.4 November17.9+2.8%$195M4.3%
201918.0 November17.8−1.1%$195M4.2%
2018—18.7—$180M4.2%
2017—18.4—$173M4.1%
2016—17.2—$156M3.8%
2015—16.2—$162M3.6%
2014—16.4—$152M3.7%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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