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Minnesota · crop watch

Minnesota potato crop

USDA last rated the 2025 Minnesota potato crop for the week ending Sep 21, when 97% was good or excellent, versus 87% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 99% complete (five-year average 100%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2025 crop at 16.6 million cwt, down 7.3% from last year's final of 17.9.

Last rated week ending Sep 21, 2025

Good to excellent · last reading

97%of the crop

Share of the 2025 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 21.

▼

99%

Harvested

−1 points against the five-year pace of 100%.

▼

16.6

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−7.3% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Minnesota potato forecast falls 7% from last year

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Minnesota potato crop at 16.6 million cwt, down 7.3% from last year's final total of 17.9 million cwt and further below the 19 million cwt produced two years ago. The figure marks a second straight year of decline. Minnesota forecasts have historically finished about 1.5% above their first reading, so the final number has more often landed slightly higher than initial estimates. The next USDA report will show whether that pattern holds for this crop.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±2.7%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2025

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Minnesota potato crop condition, 20250%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 1: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 7%, Good 80%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 93% (5-yr avg —, last year 85%)Week ending Jun 8: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 6%, Good 81%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 94% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 84%)Week ending Jun 15: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 5%, Good 80%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 95% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 88%)Week ending Jun 22: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 5%, Good 78%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 95% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 82%)Week ending Jun 29: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 4%, Good 76%, Excellent 20% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 90%)Week ending Jul 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 4%, Good 70%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 89%)Week ending Jul 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 3%, Good 70%, Excellent 27% — good+excellent 97% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 95%)Week ending Jul 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 4%, Good 68%, Excellent 28% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 95%)Week ending Jul 27: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 4%, Good 69%, Excellent 27% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 93%)Week ending Aug 3: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 4%, Good 68%, Excellent 28% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 92%)Week ending Aug 10: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 4%, Good 68%, Excellent 28% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 92%)Week ending Aug 17: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 4%, Good 68%, Excellent 28% — good+excellent 96% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 91%)Week ending Aug 24: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 3%, Good 68%, Excellent 29% — good+excellent 97% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 93%)Week ending Aug 31: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 3%, Good 69%, Excellent 28% — good+excellent 97% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 92%)Week ending Sep 7: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 3%, Good 67%, Excellent 30% — good+excellent 97% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 87%)Week ending Sep 14: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 3%, Good 72%, Excellent 25% — good+excellent 97% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 87%)Week ending Sep 21: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 3%, Good 67%, Excellent 30% — good+excellent 97% (5-yr avg —, last year 87%)Harvest begins — week ending Aug 3Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 21USDA forecastJun 1Jun 22Jul 13Aug 3Aug 24Sep 14
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 97% good or excellent, week ending Sep 21. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Minnesota potato planted, 20250%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 6: 0% (5-yr avg 0%, last year 0%)Planted, week ending Apr 13: 1% (5-yr avg 1%, last year 0%)Planted, week ending Apr 20: 8% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 3%)Planted, week ending Apr 27: 17% (5-yr avg 12%, last year 17%)Planted, week ending May 4: 23% (5-yr avg 29%, last year 33%)Planted, week ending May 11: 48% (5-yr avg 49%, last year 53%)Planted, week ending May 18: 82% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 77%)Planted, week ending May 25: 93% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 88%)Planted, week ending Jun 1: 97% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 92%)Apr 6Apr 20May 4May 18Jun 1
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 97% as of Jun 1 (5-yr avg 90%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Minnesota potato harvested, 20250%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 20: 0% (5-yr avg 0%, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Jul 27: 0% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Aug 3: 2% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 1%)Harvested, week ending Aug 10: 3% (5-yr avg 8%, last year 4%)Harvested, week ending Aug 17: 6% (5-yr avg 11%, last year 6%)Harvested, week ending Aug 24: 15% (5-yr avg 14%, last year 9%)Harvested, week ending Aug 31: 22% (5-yr avg 18%, last year 12%)Harvested, week ending Sep 7: 35% (5-yr avg 24%, last year 15%)Harvested, week ending Sep 14: 44% (5-yr avg 36%, last year 31%)Harvested, week ending Sep 21: 52% (5-yr avg 51%, last year 43%)Harvested, week ending Sep 28: 62% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 65%)Harvested, week ending Nov 16: 99% (5-yr avg 100%, last year 100%)Jul 20Aug 3Aug 17Aug 31Sep 14Sep 28
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 99% as of Nov 16 (5-yr avg 100%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Minnesota potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final05101520million cwt2014: no forecast · final 16.4 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 16.2 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 17.2 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 18.4 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 18.7 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 18.0 million cwt · final 17.8 million cwt (-1.1%)−1.1%20192020: Nov forecast 17.4 million cwt · final 17.9 million cwt (+2.8%)+2.8%20202021: Nov forecast 17.6 million cwt · final 17.6 million cwt (-0.3%)−0.3%20212022: Nov forecast 19.3 million cwt · final 19.1 million cwt (-0.8%)−0.8%20222023: Nov forecast 18.4 million cwt · final 19.0 million cwt (+2.9%)+2.9%20232024: Nov forecast 17.0 million cwt · final 17.9 million cwt (+5.2%)+5.2%20242025: Nov forecast 16.6 million cwt · final 17.3 million cwt (+4.1%)+4.1%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202516.6 November17.3+4.1%$223M4.1%
202417.0 November17.9+5.2%$247M4.2%
202318.4 November19.0+2.9%$267M4.3%
202219.3 November19.1−0.8%$237M4.8%
202117.6 November17.6−0.3%$188M4.3%
202017.4 November17.9+2.8%$195M4.3%
201918.0 November17.8−1.1%$195M4.2%
2018—18.7—$180M4.2%
2017—18.4—$173M4.1%
2016—17.2—$156M3.8%
2015—16.2—$162M3.6%
2014—16.4—$152M3.7%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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