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Minnesota · crop watch

Minnesota potato crop

USDA last rated the 2024 Minnesota potato crop for the week ending Sep 29, when 89% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 97% complete (five-year average 95%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2024 crop at 17.0 million cwt, down 10.4% from last year's final of 19.0.

Last rated week ending Sep 29, 2024

Good to excellent · last reading

89%of the crop

Share of the 2024 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 29.

▲

97%

Harvested

+2 points against the five-year pace of 95%.

▼

16.6

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−7.3% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Minnesota potato forecast falls 7% from last year

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Minnesota potato crop at 16.6 million cwt, down 7.3% from last year's final total of 17.9 million cwt and further below the 19 million cwt produced two years ago. The figure marks a second straight year of decline. Minnesota forecasts have historically finished about 1.5% above their first reading, so the final number has more often landed slightly higher than initial estimates. The next USDA report will show whether that pattern holds for this crop.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±2.7%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2024

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Minnesota potato crop condition, 20240%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 2: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 14%, Good 72%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 85% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jun 9: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 16%, Good 67%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 84% (5-yr avg —, last year 75%)Week ending Jun 16: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 12%, Good 70%, Excellent 18% — good+excellent 88% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 77%)Week ending Jun 23: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 16%, Good 55%, Excellent 27% — good+excellent 82% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 84%)Week ending Jun 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 10%, Good 55%, Excellent 35% — good+excellent 90% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 82%)Week ending Jul 7: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 11%, Good 63%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 89% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 81%)Week ending Jul 14: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 4%, Good 70%, Excellent 25% — good+excellent 95% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 85%)Week ending Jul 21: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 4%, Good 68%, Excellent 27% — good+excellent 95% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 86%)Week ending Jul 28: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 6%, Good 65%, Excellent 28% — good+excellent 93% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 78%)Week ending Aug 4: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 7%, Good 62%, Excellent 30% — good+excellent 92% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 78%)Week ending Aug 11: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 7%, Good 66%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 92% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 84%)Week ending Aug 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 8%, Good 64%, Excellent 27% — good+excellent 91% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 84%)Week ending Aug 25: Very poor 1%, Poor 1%, Fair 5%, Good 66%, Excellent 27% — good+excellent 93% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 84%)Week ending Sep 1: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 7%, Good 66%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 92% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 85%)Week ending Sep 8: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 11%, Good 61%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 87% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 85%)Week ending Sep 15: Very poor 1%, Poor 2%, Fair 10%, Good 60%, Excellent 27% — good+excellent 87% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 85%)Week ending Sep 22: Very poor 1%, Poor 2%, Fair 10%, Good 62%, Excellent 25% — good+excellent 87% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Sep 29: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 9%, Good 76%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 89% (5-yr avg —, last year —)−6 pts — week ending Jun 23−6 ptsHarvest begins — week ending Aug 4Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 29USDA forecastJun 2Jun 23Jul 14Aug 4Aug 25Sep 15
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 89% good or excellent, week ending Sep 29. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2024

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Minnesota potato planted, 20240%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 28: 19% (5-yr avg 12%, last year 1%)Planted, week ending May 5: 35% (5-yr avg 29%, last year 12%)Planted, week ending May 12: 56% (5-yr avg 47%, last year 33%)Planted, week ending May 19: 80% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 51%)Planted, week ending May 26: 89% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 75%)Planted, week ending Jun 2: 92% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 93%)Planted, week ending Jun 9: 96% (5-yr avg 96%, last year 99%)Apr 28May 5May 12May 19May 26Jun 2Jun 9
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 96% as of Jun 9 (5-yr avg 96%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2024

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Minnesota potato harvested, 20240%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 28: 0% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Aug 4: 1% (5-yr avg 4%, last year 1%)Harvested, week ending Aug 11: 4% (5-yr avg 8%, last year 3%)Harvested, week ending Aug 18: 6% (5-yr avg 12%, last year 8%)Harvested, week ending Aug 25: 9% (5-yr avg 15%, last year 13%)Harvested, week ending Sep 1: 12% (5-yr avg 19%, last year 18%)Harvested, week ending Sep 8: 16% (5-yr avg 26%, last year 26%)Harvested, week ending Sep 15: 33% (5-yr avg 37%, last year 41%)Harvested, week ending Sep 22: 45% (5-yr avg 51%, last year 59%)Harvested, week ending Sep 29: 68% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 72%)Harvested, week ending Oct 6: 77% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 81%)Harvested, week ending Oct 13: 93% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 90%)Harvested, week ending Oct 20: 97% (5-yr avg 95%, last year 93%)Jul 28Aug 11Aug 25Sep 8Sep 22Oct 6Oct 20
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 97% as of Oct 20 (5-yr avg 95%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Minnesota potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final05101520million cwt2014: no forecast · final 16.4 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 16.2 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 17.2 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 18.4 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 18.7 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 18.0 million cwt · final 17.8 million cwt (-1.1%)−1.1%20192020: Nov forecast 17.4 million cwt · final 17.9 million cwt (+2.8%)+2.8%20202021: Nov forecast 17.6 million cwt · final 17.6 million cwt (-0.3%)−0.3%20212022: Nov forecast 19.3 million cwt · final 19.1 million cwt (-0.8%)−0.8%20222023: Nov forecast 18.4 million cwt · final 19.0 million cwt (+2.9%)+2.9%20232024: Nov forecast 17.0 million cwt · final 17.9 million cwt (+5.2%)+5.2%20242025: Nov forecast 16.6 million cwt · final 17.3 million cwt (+4.1%)+4.1%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202516.6 November17.3+4.1%$223M4.1%
202417.0 November17.9+5.2%$247M4.2%
202318.4 November19.0+2.9%$267M4.3%
202219.3 November19.1−0.8%$237M4.8%
202117.6 November17.6−0.3%$188M4.3%
202017.4 November17.9+2.8%$195M4.3%
201918.0 November17.8−1.1%$195M4.2%
2018—18.7—$180M4.2%
2017—18.4—$173M4.1%
2016—17.2—$156M3.8%
2015—16.2—$162M3.6%
2014—16.4—$152M3.7%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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