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Minnesota · crop watch

Minnesota potato crop

USDA last rated the 2021 Minnesota potato crop for the week ending Sep 19, when 73% was good or excellent, versus 92% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 96% complete (five-year average 96%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2021 crop at 17.6 million cwt, down 1.8% from last year's final of 17.9.

Last rated week ending Sep 19, 2021

Good to excellent · last reading

73%of the crop

Share of the 2021 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 19.

=

96%

Harvested

0 points against the five-year pace of 96%.

▼

16.6

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−7.3% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Minnesota potato forecast falls 7% from last year

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Minnesota potato crop at 16.6 million cwt, down 7.3% from last year's final total of 17.9 million cwt and further below the 19 million cwt produced two years ago. The figure marks a second straight year of decline. Minnesota forecasts have historically finished about 1.5% above their first reading, so the final number has more often landed slightly higher than initial estimates. The next USDA report will show whether that pattern holds for this crop.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±2.7%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2021

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Minnesota potato crop condition, 20210%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 26%, Good 47%, Excellent 25% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg —, last year 88%)Week ending Jun 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 33%, Good 55%, Excellent 10% — good+excellent 65% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 93%)Week ending Jun 27: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 37%, Good 40%, Excellent 21% — good+excellent 61% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 93%)Week ending Jul 4: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 27%, Good 43%, Excellent 28% — good+excellent 71% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 90%)Week ending Jul 11: Very poor 0%, Poor 4%, Fair 32%, Good 39%, Excellent 25% — good+excellent 64% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 93%)Week ending Jul 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 6%, Fair 34%, Good 36%, Excellent 24% — good+excellent 60% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 90%)Week ending Jul 25: Very poor 2%, Poor 6%, Fair 31%, Good 37%, Excellent 24% — good+excellent 61% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 89%)Week ending Aug 1: Very poor 1%, Poor 5%, Fair 28%, Good 53%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 66% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 89%)Week ending Aug 8: Very poor 1%, Poor 7%, Fair 32%, Good 37%, Excellent 23% — good+excellent 60% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 89%)Week ending Aug 15: Very poor 1%, Poor 7%, Fair 32%, Good 35%, Excellent 25% — good+excellent 60% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 92%)Week ending Aug 22: Very poor 1%, Poor 6%, Fair 32%, Good 36%, Excellent 25% — good+excellent 61% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 92%)Week ending Aug 29: Very poor 1%, Poor 5%, Fair 24%, Good 40%, Excellent 30% — good+excellent 70% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 92%)Week ending Sep 5: Very poor 1%, Poor 7%, Fair 36%, Good 48%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 56% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 92%)Week ending Sep 12: Very poor 1%, Poor 7%, Fair 32%, Good 37%, Excellent 23% — good+excellent 60% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 92%)Week ending Sep 19: Very poor 2%, Poor 5%, Fair 20%, Good 43%, Excellent 30% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg —, last year 92%)Harvest begins — week ending Aug 1Harvest begins−14 pts — week ending Sep 5−14 ptsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 19USDA forecastJun 13Jun 27Jul 11Jul 25Aug 8Aug 22Sep 5Sep 19
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 73% good or excellent, week ending Sep 19. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Minnesota potato planted, 20210%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 4: 1% (5-yr avg 0%, last year 0%)Planted, week ending Apr 11: 2% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 1%)Planted, week ending Apr 18: 5% (5-yr avg 7%, last year 3%)Planted, week ending Apr 25: 12% (5-yr avg 15%, last year 15%)Planted, week ending May 2: 44% (5-yr avg 31%, last year 40%)Planted, week ending May 9: 74% (5-yr avg 54%, last year 63%)Planted, week ending May 16: 82% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 74%)Planted, week ending May 23: 87% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 84%)Planted, week ending May 30: 89% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 93%)Planted, week ending Jun 6: 91% (5-yr avg 97%, last year 97%)Planted, week ending Jun 13: 94% (5-yr avg 99%, last year 100%)Planted, week ending Jun 20: 100% (5-yr avg 100%, last year 100%)Apr 4Apr 18May 2May 16May 30Jun 13
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 100% as of Jun 20 (5-yr avg 100%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Minnesota potato harvested, 20210%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 11: 0% (5-yr avg 0%, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Jul 18: 0% (5-yr avg 0%, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Jul 25: 0% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 7%)Harvested, week ending Aug 1: 1% (5-yr avg 4%, last year 10%)Harvested, week ending Aug 8: 8% (5-yr avg 8%, last year 17%)Harvested, week ending Aug 15: 18% (5-yr avg 11%, last year 21%)Harvested, week ending Aug 22: 21% (5-yr avg 15%, last year 23%)Harvested, week ending Aug 29: 23% (5-yr avg 20%, last year 26%)Harvested, week ending Sep 5: 28% (5-yr avg 26%, last year 29%)Harvested, week ending Sep 12: 31% (5-yr avg 35%, last year 37%)Harvested, week ending Sep 19: 41% (5-yr avg 46%, last year 50%)Harvested, week ending Sep 26: 59% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 66%)Harvested, week ending Oct 3: 73% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 84%)Harvested, week ending Oct 10: 82% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 94%)Harvested, week ending Oct 17: 92% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 98%)Harvested, week ending Oct 24: 96% (5-yr avg 96%, last year 100%)Jul 11Jul 25Aug 8Aug 22Sep 5Sep 19Oct 3Oct 17
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 96% as of Oct 24 (5-yr avg 96%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Minnesota potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final05101520million cwt2014: no forecast · final 16.4 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 16.2 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 17.2 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 18.4 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 18.7 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 18.0 million cwt · final 17.8 million cwt (-1.1%)−1.1%20192020: Nov forecast 17.4 million cwt · final 17.9 million cwt (+2.8%)+2.8%20202021: Nov forecast 17.6 million cwt · final 17.6 million cwt (-0.3%)−0.3%20212022: Nov forecast 19.3 million cwt · final 19.1 million cwt (-0.8%)−0.8%20222023: Nov forecast 18.4 million cwt · final 19.0 million cwt (+2.9%)+2.9%20232024: Nov forecast 17.0 million cwt · final 17.9 million cwt (+5.2%)+5.2%20242025: Nov forecast 16.6 million cwt · final 17.3 million cwt (+4.1%)+4.1%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202516.6 November17.3+4.1%$223M4.1%
202417.0 November17.9+5.2%$247M4.2%
202318.4 November19.0+2.9%$267M4.3%
202219.3 November19.1−0.8%$237M4.8%
202117.6 November17.6−0.3%$188M4.3%
202017.4 November17.9+2.8%$195M4.3%
201918.0 November17.8−1.1%$195M4.2%
2018—18.7—$180M4.2%
2017—18.4—$173M4.1%
2016—17.2—$156M3.8%
2015—16.2—$162M3.6%
2014—16.4—$152M3.7%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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