ProduceWire ProduceWire

Oregon · crop watch

Oregon potato crop

USDA last rated the 2020 Oregon potato crop for the week ending Sep 6, when 56% was good or excellent, 21 points below the five-year average of 77%, versus 72% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 96% complete (five-year average 92%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2020 crop at 27.9 million cwt, up 10.2% from last year's final of 25.3.

Last rated week ending Sep 6, 2020

Good to excellent · last reading

56%of the crop

21 points below the five-year average for this week, and 72% a year ago.

▲

96%

Harvested

+4 points against the five-year pace of 92%.

▼

26.0

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−0.5% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Oregon potato forecast holds near last year's mark

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Oregon potato crop at 26 million cwt for the 2025 crop year, down 0.5% from last year's final total of 26.2 million cwt and below the 26.7 million cwt logged two years earlier. Oregon's first calls have typically finished about 1.4% higher than the initial forecast, so history points to some upward room before USDA locks in a final number. With supply essentially flat year over year, the crop is tracking close to recent levels rather than breaking from them.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±2.4%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2020

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Oregon potato crop condition, 20200%25%50%75%100%Week ending May 10: Very poor 2%, Poor 5%, Fair 43%, Good 38%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 50% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending May 17: Very poor 3%, Poor 7%, Fair 40%, Good 36%, Excellent 14% — good+excellent 50% (5-yr avg —, last year 70%)Week ending May 24: Very poor 2%, Poor 5%, Fair 28%, Good 46%, Excellent 19% — good+excellent 65% (5-yr avg —, last year 71%)Week ending May 31: Very poor 2%, Poor 5%, Fair 29%, Good 44%, Excellent 20% — good+excellent 64% (5-yr avg —, last year 72%)Week ending Jun 7: Very poor 2%, Poor 5%, Fair 29%, Good 45%, Excellent 19% — good+excellent 64% (5-yr avg —, last year 74%)Week ending Jun 14: Very poor 2%, Poor 5%, Fair 25%, Good 47%, Excellent 21% — good+excellent 68% (5-yr avg —, last year 75%)Week ending Jun 21: Very poor 2%, Poor 5%, Fair 24%, Good 48%, Excellent 21% — good+excellent 69% (5-yr avg —, last year 76%)Week ending Jun 28: Very poor 2%, Poor 5%, Fair 24%, Good 49%, Excellent 20% — good+excellent 69% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 74%)Week ending Jul 5: Very poor 4%, Poor 8%, Fair 16%, Good 45%, Excellent 27% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 74%)Week ending Jul 12: Very poor 3%, Poor 7%, Fair 22%, Good 38%, Excellent 30% — good+excellent 68% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 78%)Week ending Jul 19: Very poor 2%, Poor 5%, Fair 22%, Good 49%, Excellent 22% — good+excellent 71% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 76%)Week ending Jul 26: Very poor 3%, Poor 6%, Fair 30%, Good 37%, Excellent 24% — good+excellent 61% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 77%)Week ending Aug 2: Very poor 2%, Poor 7%, Fair 25%, Good 46%, Excellent 20% — good+excellent 66% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 79%)Week ending Aug 9: Very poor 3%, Poor 8%, Fair 26%, Good 42%, Excellent 21% — good+excellent 63% (5-yr avg 76%, last year 74%)Week ending Aug 16: Very poor 2%, Poor 7%, Fair 32%, Good 41%, Excellent 18% — good+excellent 59% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 77%)Week ending Aug 23: Very poor 2%, Poor 6%, Fair 36%, Good 40%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 56% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 74%)Week ending Aug 30: Very poor 2%, Poor 6%, Fair 37%, Good 39%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 55% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 70%)Week ending Sep 6: Very poor 2%, Poor 6%, Fair 36%, Good 38%, Excellent 18% — good+excellent 56% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 72%)Harvest begins — week ending Jul 26Harvest begins−10 pts — week ending Jul 26−10 ptsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 6USDA forecastMay 10May 31Jun 21Jul 12Aug 2Aug 23
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 56% good or excellent, week ending Sep 6. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Oregon potato planted, 20200%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 5: 24% (5-yr avg 16%, last year 17%)Planted, week ending Apr 12: 50% (5-yr avg 26%, last year 35%)Planted, week ending Apr 19: 72% (5-yr avg 43%, last year 54%)Planted, week ending Apr 26: 85% (5-yr avg 53%, last year 67%)Planted, week ending May 3: 91% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 81%)Planted, week ending May 10: 97% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 95%)Planted, week ending May 17: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Planted, week ending May 24: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Planted, week ending May 31: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 5Apr 19May 3May 17May 31
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 100% as of May 31.

Field progress

Emerged, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Oregon potato emerged, 20200%50%100%Emerged, week ending Apr 19: 18% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending Apr 26: 31% (5-yr avg —, last year 16%)Emerged, week ending May 3: 40% (5-yr avg —, last year 29%)Emerged, week ending May 10: 63% (5-yr avg —, last year 45%)Emerged, week ending May 17: 66% (5-yr avg —, last year 56%)Emerged, week ending May 24: 72% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 73%)Emerged, week ending May 31: 82% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 84%)Emerged, week ending Jun 7: 95% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 92%)Apr 19Apr 26May 3May 10May 17May 24May 31Jun 7
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 95% as of Jun 7 (5-yr avg 92%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Oregon potato harvested, 20200%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 19: 0% (5-yr avg 6%, last year 1%)Harvested, week ending Jul 26: 4% (5-yr avg 11%, last year 11%)Harvested, week ending Aug 2: 7% (5-yr avg 17%, last year 18%)Harvested, week ending Aug 9: 16% (5-yr avg 23%, last year 25%)Harvested, week ending Aug 16: 22% (5-yr avg 31%, last year 29%)Harvested, week ending Aug 23: 30% (5-yr avg 37%, last year 36%)Harvested, week ending Aug 30: 35% (5-yr avg 44%, last year 40%)Harvested, week ending Sep 6: 42% (5-yr avg 48%, last year 45%)Harvested, week ending Sep 13: 45% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 57%)Harvested, week ending Sep 20: 51% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 65%)Harvested, week ending Sep 27: 61% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 70%)Harvested, week ending Oct 4: 70% (5-yr avg 73%, last year 82%)Harvested, week ending Oct 11: 80% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 89%)Harvested, week ending Oct 18: 93% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 93%)Harvested, week ending Oct 25: 96% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 95%)Jul 19Aug 2Aug 16Aug 30Sep 13Sep 27Oct 11Oct 25
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 96% as of Oct 25 (5-yr avg 92%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Oregon potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final0102030million cwt2014: no forecast · final 24.9 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 24.6 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 26.5 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 25.2 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 27.0 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 22.7 million cwt · final 25.3 million cwt (+11.6%)+11.6%20192020: Nov forecast 27.9 million cwt · final 27.0 million cwt (-3.2%)−3.2%20202021: Nov forecast 25.5 million cwt · final 26.9 million cwt (+5.3%)+5.3%20212022: Nov forecast 25.3 million cwt · final 26.4 million cwt (+4.3%)+4.3%20222023: Nov forecast 27.2 million cwt · final 26.7 million cwt (-2.1%)−2.1%20232024: Nov forecast 26.3 million cwt · final 26.2 million cwt (-0.3%)−0.3%20242025: Nov forecast 26.0 million cwt · final 26.0 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202526.0 November26.00.0%$263M6.2%
202426.3 November26.2−0.3%$298M6.2%
202327.2 November26.7−2.1%$309M6.1%
202225.3 November26.4+4.3%$272M6.6%
202125.5 November26.9+5.3%$242M6.5%
202027.9 November27.0−3.2%$216M6.4%
201922.7 November25.3+11.6%$234M6.0%
2018—27.0—$202M6.0%
2017—25.2—$198M5.6%
2016—26.5—$209M5.9%
2015—24.6—$202M5.5%
2014—24.9—$197M5.5%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

Get the Weekly Market Brief

Price moves, freight signals, and the produce stories that matter — one email, every week. Built for buyers, category managers, and brokers.

Subscribe free →