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Oregon · crop watch

Oregon potato crop

USDA last rated the 2024 Oregon potato crop for the week ending Sep 8, when 60% was good or excellent, versus 71% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 96% complete (five-year average 95%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2024 crop at 26.3 million cwt, down 1.5% from last year's final of 26.7.

Last rated week ending Sep 8, 2024

Good to excellent · last reading

60%of the crop

Share of the 2024 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 8.

▲

96%

Harvested

+1 points against the five-year pace of 95%.

▼

26.0

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−0.5% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Oregon potato forecast holds near last year's mark

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Oregon potato crop at 26 million cwt for the 2025 crop year, down 0.5% from last year's final total of 26.2 million cwt and below the 26.7 million cwt logged two years earlier. Oregon's first calls have typically finished about 1.4% higher than the initial forecast, so history points to some upward room before USDA locks in a final number. With supply essentially flat year over year, the crop is tracking close to recent levels rather than breaking from them.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±2.4%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2024

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Oregon potato crop condition, 20240%25%50%75%100%Week ending May 19: Very poor 2%, Poor 2%, Fair 38%, Good 30%, Excellent 28% — good+excellent 58% (5-yr avg —, last year 72%)Week ending May 26: Very poor 2%, Poor 2%, Fair 38%, Good 31%, Excellent 27% — good+excellent 58% (5-yr avg 67%, last year 72%)Week ending Jun 2: Very poor 2%, Poor 3%, Fair 32%, Good 40%, Excellent 23% — good+excellent 63% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 67%)Week ending Jun 9: Very poor 2%, Poor 3%, Fair 30%, Good 42%, Excellent 23% — good+excellent 65% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 67%)Week ending Jun 16: Very poor 2%, Poor 3%, Fair 30%, Good 40%, Excellent 25% — good+excellent 65% (5-yr avg 67%, last year 67%)Week ending Jun 23: Very poor 1%, Poor 4%, Fair 25%, Good 43%, Excellent 27% — good+excellent 70% (5-yr avg 67%, last year 61%)Week ending Jun 30: Very poor 2%, Poor 2%, Fair 27%, Good 40%, Excellent 29% — good+excellent 69% (5-yr avg 70%, last year 71%)Week ending Jul 7: Very poor 2%, Poor 3%, Fair 28%, Good 38%, Excellent 29% — good+excellent 67% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 72%)Week ending Jul 14: Very poor 3%, Poor 4%, Fair 28%, Good 39%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 65% (5-yr avg 70%, last year 72%)Week ending Jul 21: Very poor 4%, Poor 4%, Fair 35%, Good 30%, Excellent 27% — good+excellent 57% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 71%)Week ending Jul 28: Very poor 3%, Poor 4%, Fair 33%, Good 34%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 60% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 72%)Week ending Aug 4: Very poor 4%, Poor 4%, Fair 32%, Good 37%, Excellent 23% — good+excellent 60% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 73%)Week ending Aug 11: Very poor 3%, Poor 6%, Fair 29%, Good 44%, Excellent 18% — good+excellent 62% (5-yr avg 67%, last year 72%)Week ending Aug 18: Very poor 2%, Poor 6%, Fair 36%, Good 40%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 56% (5-yr avg 67%, last year 72%)Week ending Aug 25: Very poor 1%, Poor 5%, Fair 45%, Good 37%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 49% (5-yr avg 65%, last year 71%)Week ending Sep 1: Very poor 1%, Poor 6%, Fair 40%, Good 41%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 53% (5-yr avg 63%, last year 69%)Week ending Sep 8: Very poor 2%, Poor 7%, Fair 31%, Good 46%, Excellent 14% — good+excellent 60% (5-yr avg —, last year 71%)Harvest begins — week ending Jul 21Harvest begins−8 pts — week ending Jul 21−8 ptsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 8USDA forecastMay 19Jun 9Jun 30Jul 21Aug 11Sep 1
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 60% good or excellent, week ending Sep 8. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2024

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Oregon potato planted, 20240%50%100%Planted, week ending Mar 31: 24% (5-yr avg 16%, last year 9%)Planted, week ending Apr 7: 29% (5-yr avg 25%, last year 18%)Planted, week ending Apr 14: 51% (5-yr avg 42%, last year 34%)Planted, week ending Apr 21: 68% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 49%)Planted, week ending Apr 28: 79% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 56%)Planted, week ending May 5: 83% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 70%)Planted, week ending May 12: 97% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 84%)Mar 31Apr 7Apr 14Apr 21Apr 28May 5May 12
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 97% as of May 12 (5-yr avg 91%).

Field progress

Emerged, 2024

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Oregon potato emerged, 20240%50%100%Emerged, week ending Apr 7: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending Apr 14: 6% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending Apr 21: 14% (5-yr avg —, last year 8%)Emerged, week ending Apr 28: 32% (5-yr avg —, last year 24%)Emerged, week ending May 5: 36% (5-yr avg 35%, last year 37%)Emerged, week ending May 12: 52% (5-yr avg 48%, last year 44%)Emerged, week ending May 19: 62% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 53%)Emerged, week ending May 26: 80% (5-yr avg 71%, last year 67%)Emerged, week ending Jun 2: 97% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 80%)Apr 7Apr 21May 5May 19Jun 2
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 97% as of Jun 2 (5-yr avg 82%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2024

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Oregon potato harvested, 20240%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 7: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 14: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 21: 1% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 1%)Harvested, week ending Jul 28: 2% (5-yr avg 7%, last year 2%)Harvested, week ending Aug 4: 4% (5-yr avg 12%, last year 8%)Harvested, week ending Aug 11: 10% (5-yr avg 20%, last year 13%)Harvested, week ending Aug 18: 23% (5-yr avg 25%, last year 17%)Harvested, week ending Aug 25: 30% (5-yr avg 33%, last year 26%)Harvested, week ending Sep 1: 43% (5-yr avg 39%, last year 33%)Harvested, week ending Sep 8: 47% (5-yr avg 45%, last year 37%)Harvested, week ending Sep 15: 52% (5-yr avg 51%, last year 42%)Harvested, week ending Sep 22: 59% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 49%)Harvested, week ending Sep 29: 63% (5-yr avg 65%, last year 57%)Harvested, week ending Oct 6: 76% (5-yr avg 75%, last year 67%)Harvested, week ending Oct 13: 83% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 75%)Harvested, week ending Oct 20: 89% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 86%)Harvested, week ending Oct 27: 96% (5-yr avg 95%, last year 93%)Jul 7Jul 28Aug 18Sep 8Sep 29Oct 20
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 96% as of Oct 27 (5-yr avg 95%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Oregon potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final0102030million cwt2014: no forecast · final 24.9 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 24.6 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 26.5 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 25.2 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 27.0 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 22.7 million cwt · final 25.3 million cwt (+11.6%)+11.6%20192020: Nov forecast 27.9 million cwt · final 27.0 million cwt (-3.2%)−3.2%20202021: Nov forecast 25.5 million cwt · final 26.9 million cwt (+5.3%)+5.3%20212022: Nov forecast 25.3 million cwt · final 26.4 million cwt (+4.3%)+4.3%20222023: Nov forecast 27.2 million cwt · final 26.7 million cwt (-2.1%)−2.1%20232024: Nov forecast 26.3 million cwt · final 26.2 million cwt (-0.3%)−0.3%20242025: Nov forecast 26.0 million cwt · final 26.0 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202526.0 November26.00.0%$263M6.2%
202426.3 November26.2−0.3%$298M6.2%
202327.2 November26.7−2.1%$309M6.1%
202225.3 November26.4+4.3%$272M6.6%
202125.5 November26.9+5.3%$242M6.5%
202027.9 November27.0−3.2%$216M6.4%
201922.7 November25.3+11.6%$234M6.0%
2018—27.0—$202M6.0%
2017—25.2—$198M5.6%
2016—26.5—$209M5.9%
2015—24.6—$202M5.5%
2014—24.9—$197M5.5%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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