ProduceWire ProduceWire

Oregon · crop watch

Oregon potato crop

USDA last rated the 2025 Oregon potato crop for the week ending Aug 31, when 77% was good or excellent, 18 points above the five-year average of 59%, versus 53% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 72% complete (five-year average 62%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2025 crop at 26.0 million cwt, down 0.5% from last year's final of 26.2.

Last rated week ending Aug 31, 2025

Good to excellent · last reading

77%of the crop

18 points above the five-year average for this week, and 53% a year ago.

▲

72%

Harvested

+10 points against the five-year pace of 62%.

▼

26.0

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−0.5% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Oregon potato forecast holds near last year's mark

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Oregon potato crop at 26 million cwt for the 2025 crop year, down 0.5% from last year's final total of 26.2 million cwt and below the 26.7 million cwt logged two years earlier. Oregon's first calls have typically finished about 1.4% higher than the initial forecast, so history points to some upward room before USDA locks in a final number. With supply essentially flat year over year, the crop is tracking close to recent levels rather than breaking from them.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±2.4%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2025

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Oregon potato crop condition, 20250%25%50%75%100%Week ending May 11: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 26%, Good 40%, Excellent 34% — good+excellent 74% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending May 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 26%, Good 40%, Excellent 34% — good+excellent 74% (5-yr avg —, last year 58%)Week ending May 25: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 24%, Good 40%, Excellent 36% — good+excellent 76% (5-yr avg 65%, last year 58%)Week ending Jun 1: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 24%, Good 40%, Excellent 36% — good+excellent 76% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 63%)Week ending Jun 8: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 25%, Good 40%, Excellent 35% — good+excellent 75% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 65%)Week ending Jun 15: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 23%, Good 40%, Excellent 37% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 65%)Week ending Jun 22: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 22%, Good 41%, Excellent 37% — good+excellent 78% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 70%)Week ending Jun 29: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 20%, Good 42%, Excellent 38% — good+excellent 80% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 69%)Week ending Jul 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 22%, Good 42%, Excellent 36% — good+excellent 78% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 67%)Week ending Jul 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 23%, Good 42%, Excellent 35% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 65%)Week ending Jul 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 23%, Good 41%, Excellent 36% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg 65%, last year 57%)Week ending Jul 27: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 23%, Good 41%, Excellent 36% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg 67%, last year 60%)Week ending Aug 3: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 22%, Good 41%, Excellent 37% — good+excellent 78% (5-yr avg 65%, last year 60%)Week ending Aug 10: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 23%, Good 41%, Excellent 36% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg 65%, last year 62%)Week ending Aug 17: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 23%, Good 41%, Excellent 36% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 56%)Week ending Aug 24: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 23%, Good 41%, Excellent 36% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 49%)Week ending Aug 31: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 23%, Good 41%, Excellent 36% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg 59%, last year 53%)Harvest begins — week ending Jul 13Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 31USDA forecastMay 11Jun 1Jun 22Jul 13Aug 3Aug 24
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 77% good or excellent, week ending Aug 31. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Oregon potato planted, 20250%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 6: 24% (5-yr avg 25%, last year 28%)Planted, week ending Apr 13: 51% (5-yr avg 41%, last year 48%)Planted, week ending Apr 20: 60% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 66%)Planted, week ending Apr 27: 77% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 77%)Planted, week ending May 4: 90% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 82%)Planted, week ending May 11: 95% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 95%)Apr 6Apr 13Apr 20Apr 27May 4May 11
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 95% as of May 11 (5-yr avg 90%).

Field progress

Emerged, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Oregon potato emerged, 20250%50%100%Emerged, week ending Apr 13: 4% (5-yr avg —, last year 5%)Emerged, week ending Apr 20: 11% (5-yr avg —, last year 13%)Emerged, week ending Apr 27: 22% (5-yr avg —, last year 29%)Emerged, week ending May 4: 41% (5-yr avg 34%, last year 35%)Emerged, week ending May 11: 55% (5-yr avg 48%, last year 50%)Emerged, week ending May 18: 72% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 61%)Emerged, week ending May 25: 90% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 77%)Emerged, week ending Jun 1: 96% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 95%)Apr 13Apr 20Apr 27May 4May 11May 18May 25Jun 1
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 96% as of Jun 1 (5-yr avg 82%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Oregon potato harvested, 20250%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jun 29: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 6: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 13: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Jul 20: 4% (5-yr avg 1%, last year 1%)Harvested, week ending Jul 27: 8% (5-yr avg 4%, last year 2%)Harvested, week ending Aug 3: 11% (5-yr avg 8%, last year 4%)Harvested, week ending Aug 10: 19% (5-yr avg 16%, last year 9%)Harvested, week ending Aug 17: 27% (5-yr avg 23%, last year 21%)Harvested, week ending Aug 24: 35% (5-yr avg 30%, last year 29%)Harvested, week ending Aug 31: 45% (5-yr avg 38%, last year 41%)Harvested, week ending Sep 7: 50% (5-yr avg 44%, last year 46%)Harvested, week ending Sep 14: 55% (5-yr avg 49%, last year 51%)Harvested, week ending Sep 21: 65% (5-yr avg 55%, last year 58%)Harvested, week ending Sep 28: 72% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 62%)Jun 29Jul 13Jul 27Aug 10Aug 24Sep 7Sep 21
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 72% as of Sep 28 (5-yr avg 62%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Oregon potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final0102030million cwt2014: no forecast · final 24.9 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 24.6 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 26.5 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 25.2 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 27.0 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 22.7 million cwt · final 25.3 million cwt (+11.6%)+11.6%20192020: Nov forecast 27.9 million cwt · final 27.0 million cwt (-3.2%)−3.2%20202021: Nov forecast 25.5 million cwt · final 26.9 million cwt (+5.3%)+5.3%20212022: Nov forecast 25.3 million cwt · final 26.4 million cwt (+4.3%)+4.3%20222023: Nov forecast 27.2 million cwt · final 26.7 million cwt (-2.1%)−2.1%20232024: Nov forecast 26.3 million cwt · final 26.2 million cwt (-0.3%)−0.3%20242025: Nov forecast 26.0 million cwt · final 26.0 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202526.0 November26.00.0%$263M6.2%
202426.3 November26.2−0.3%$298M6.2%
202327.2 November26.7−2.1%$309M6.1%
202225.3 November26.4+4.3%$272M6.6%
202125.5 November26.9+5.3%$242M6.5%
202027.9 November27.0−3.2%$216M6.4%
201922.7 November25.3+11.6%$234M6.0%
2018—27.0—$202M6.0%
2017—25.2—$198M5.6%
2016—26.5—$209M5.9%
2015—24.6—$202M5.5%
2014—24.9—$197M5.5%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

Get the Weekly Market Brief

Price moves, freight signals, and the produce stories that matter — one email, every week. Built for buyers, category managers, and brokers.

Subscribe free →