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Oregon · crop watch

Oregon potato crop

USDA last rated the 2023 Oregon potato crop for the week ending Sep 24, when 72% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 95% complete (five-year average 95%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2023 crop at 27.2 million cwt, up 3.1% from last year's final of 26.4.

Last rated week ending Sep 24, 2023

Good to excellent · last reading

72%of the crop

Share of the 2023 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 24.

=

95%

Harvested

0 points against the five-year pace of 95%.

▼

26.0

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−0.5% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Oregon potato forecast holds near last year's mark

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Oregon potato crop at 26 million cwt for the 2025 crop year, down 0.5% from last year's final total of 26.2 million cwt and below the 26.7 million cwt logged two years earlier. Oregon's first calls have typically finished about 1.4% higher than the initial forecast, so history points to some upward room before USDA locks in a final number. With supply essentially flat year over year, the crop is tracking close to recent levels rather than breaking from them.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±2.4%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2023

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Oregon potato crop condition, 20230%25%50%75%100%Week ending May 14: Very poor 1%, Poor 4%, Fair 19%, Good 59%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 76% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending May 21: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 25%, Good 54%, Excellent 18% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending May 28: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 25%, Good 54%, Excellent 18% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 57%)Week ending Jun 4: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 31%, Good 52%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 67% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 55%)Week ending Jun 11: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 31%, Good 54%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 67% (5-yr avg 71%, last year 55%)Week ending Jun 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 31%, Good 52%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 67% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 57%)Week ending Jun 25: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 38%, Good 50%, Excellent 11% — good+excellent 61% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 58%)Week ending Jul 2: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 29%, Good 55%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 71% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 58%)Week ending Jul 9: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 28%, Good 56%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 73%, last year 61%)Week ending Jul 16: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 28%, Good 56%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 59%)Week ending Jul 23: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 29%, Good 54%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 71% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 63%)Week ending Jul 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 28%, Good 55%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 71%, last year 61%)Week ending Aug 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 27%, Good 56%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 62%)Week ending Aug 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 28%, Good 55%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 70%, last year 60%)Week ending Aug 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 28%, Good 55%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 60%)Week ending Aug 27: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 29%, Good 55%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 71% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 60%)Week ending Sep 3: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 31%, Good 55%, Excellent 14% — good+excellent 69% (5-yr avg 63%, last year 60%)Week ending Sep 10: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 29%, Good 53%, Excellent 18% — good+excellent 71% (5-yr avg —, last year 60%)Week ending Sep 17: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 28%, Good 53%, Excellent 19% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Sep 24: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 28%, Good 53%, Excellent 19% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg —, last year —)−6 pts — week ending Jun 25−6 ptsHarvest begins — week ending Jul 23Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 24USDA forecastMay 14Jun 4Jun 25Jul 16Aug 6Aug 27Sep 17
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 72% good or excellent, week ending Sep 24. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Oregon potato planted, 20230%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 2: 13% (5-yr avg 18%, last year 19%)Planted, week ending Apr 9: 20% (5-yr avg 28%, last year 28%)Planted, week ending Apr 16: 40% (5-yr avg 46%, last year 37%)Planted, week ending Apr 23: 52% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 49%)Planted, week ending Apr 30: 58% (5-yr avg 75%, last year 59%)Planted, week ending May 7: 75% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 73%)Planted, week ending May 14: 88% (5-yr avg —, last year 84%)Planted, week ending May 21: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year 94%)Apr 2Apr 9Apr 16Apr 23Apr 30May 7May 14May 21
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 95% as of May 21.

Field progress

Emerged, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Oregon potato emerged, 20230%50%100%Emerged, week ending Apr 16: 2% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending Apr 23: 10% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending Apr 30: 29% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending May 7: 40% (5-yr avg 40%, last year 19%)Emerged, week ending May 14: 46% (5-yr avg 53%, last year 33%)Emerged, week ending May 21: 56% (5-yr avg 65%, last year 56%)Emerged, week ending May 28: 72% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 68%)Emerged, week ending Jun 4: 83% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 80%)Emerged, week ending Jun 11: 90% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 89%)Emerged, week ending Jun 18: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year 94%)Apr 16Apr 30May 14May 28Jun 11
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 95% as of Jun 18.

Field progress

Harvested, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Oregon potato harvested, 20230%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 16: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 23: 1% (5-yr avg 7%, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Jul 30: 3% (5-yr avg 13%, last year 1%)Harvested, week ending Aug 6: 10% (5-yr avg 19%, last year 10%)Harvested, week ending Aug 13: 14% (5-yr avg 26%, last year 20%)Harvested, week ending Aug 20: 18% (5-yr avg 31%, last year 26%)Harvested, week ending Aug 27: 29% (5-yr avg 36%, last year 35%)Harvested, week ending Sep 3: 34% (5-yr avg 42%, last year 41%)Harvested, week ending Sep 10: 38% (5-yr avg 48%, last year 46%)Harvested, week ending Sep 17: 43% (5-yr avg 54%, last year 51%)Harvested, week ending Sep 24: 52% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 59%)Harvested, week ending Oct 1: 59% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 65%)Harvested, week ending Oct 8: 70% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 75%)Harvested, week ending Oct 15: 77% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 84%)Harvested, week ending Oct 22: 89% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 90%)Harvested, week ending Oct 29: 95% (5-yr avg 95%, last year 94%)Jul 16Jul 30Aug 13Aug 27Sep 10Sep 24Oct 8Oct 22
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 95% as of Oct 29 (5-yr avg 95%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Oregon potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final0102030million cwt2014: no forecast · final 24.9 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 24.6 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 26.5 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 25.2 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 27.0 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 22.7 million cwt · final 25.3 million cwt (+11.6%)+11.6%20192020: Nov forecast 27.9 million cwt · final 27.0 million cwt (-3.2%)−3.2%20202021: Nov forecast 25.5 million cwt · final 26.9 million cwt (+5.3%)+5.3%20212022: Nov forecast 25.3 million cwt · final 26.4 million cwt (+4.3%)+4.3%20222023: Nov forecast 27.2 million cwt · final 26.7 million cwt (-2.1%)−2.1%20232024: Nov forecast 26.3 million cwt · final 26.2 million cwt (-0.3%)−0.3%20242025: Nov forecast 26.0 million cwt · final 26.0 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202526.0 November26.00.0%$263M6.2%
202426.3 November26.2−0.3%$298M6.2%
202327.2 November26.7−2.1%$309M6.1%
202225.3 November26.4+4.3%$272M6.6%
202125.5 November26.9+5.3%$242M6.5%
202027.9 November27.0−3.2%$216M6.4%
201922.7 November25.3+11.6%$234M6.0%
2018—27.0—$202M6.0%
2017—25.2—$198M5.6%
2016—26.5—$209M5.9%
2015—24.6—$202M5.5%
2014—24.9—$197M5.5%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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