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Oregon · crop watch

Oregon potato crop

USDA last rated the 2022 Oregon potato crop for the week ending Sep 11, when 60% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 95% complete (five-year average 95%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2022 crop at 25.3 million cwt, down 5.8% from last year's final of 26.9.

Last rated week ending Sep 11, 2022

Good to excellent · last reading

60%of the crop

Share of the 2022 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 11.

=

95%

Harvested

0 points against the five-year pace of 95%.

▼

26.0

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−0.5% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Oregon potato forecast holds near last year's mark

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Oregon potato crop at 26 million cwt for the 2025 crop year, down 0.5% from last year's final total of 26.2 million cwt and below the 26.7 million cwt logged two years earlier. Oregon's first calls have typically finished about 1.4% higher than the initial forecast, so history points to some upward room before USDA locks in a final number. With supply essentially flat year over year, the crop is tracking close to recent levels rather than breaking from them.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±2.4%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2022

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Oregon potato crop condition, 20220%25%50%75%100%Week ending May 29: Very poor 1%, Poor 7%, Fair 35%, Good 39%, Excellent 18% — good+excellent 57% (5-yr avg 73%, last year 72%)Week ending Jun 5: Very poor 1%, Poor 5%, Fair 39%, Good 39%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 55% (5-yr avg 75%, last year 72%)Week ending Jun 12: Very poor 1%, Poor 5%, Fair 39%, Good 39%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 55% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 78%)Week ending Jun 19: Very poor 1%, Poor 5%, Fair 37%, Good 39%, Excellent 18% — good+excellent 57% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 71%)Week ending Jun 26: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 38%, Good 38%, Excellent 20% — good+excellent 58% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 72%)Week ending Jul 3: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 38%, Good 37%, Excellent 21% — good+excellent 58% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 72%)Week ending Jul 10: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 35%, Good 39%, Excellent 22% — good+excellent 61% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 72%)Week ending Jul 17: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 37%, Good 39%, Excellent 20% — good+excellent 59% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 72%)Week ending Jul 24: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 33%, Good 41%, Excellent 22% — good+excellent 63% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 72%)Week ending Jul 31: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 35%, Good 39%, Excellent 22% — good+excellent 61% (5-yr avg 76%, last year 72%)Week ending Aug 7: Very poor 1%, Poor 4%, Fair 33%, Good 40%, Excellent 22% — good+excellent 62% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 69%)Week ending Aug 14: Very poor 1%, Poor 4%, Fair 35%, Good 38%, Excellent 22% — good+excellent 60% (5-yr avg 73%, last year 69%)Week ending Aug 21: Very poor 1%, Poor 4%, Fair 35%, Good 38%, Excellent 22% — good+excellent 60% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 69%)Week ending Aug 28: Very poor 1%, Poor 4%, Fair 35%, Good 38%, Excellent 22% — good+excellent 60% (5-yr avg 71%, last year 68%)Week ending Sep 4: Very poor 1%, Poor 4%, Fair 35%, Good 38%, Excellent 22% — good+excellent 60% (5-yr avg 70%, last year 59%)Week ending Sep 11: Very poor 1%, Poor 4%, Fair 35%, Good 38%, Excellent 22% — good+excellent 60% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvest begins — week ending Jul 31Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 11USDA forecastMay 29Jun 12Jun 26Jul 10Jul 24Aug 7Aug 21Sep 4
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 60% good or excellent, week ending Sep 11. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Oregon potato planted, 20220%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 3: 20% (5-yr avg 18%, last year 27%)Planted, week ending Apr 10: 29% (5-yr avg 29%, last year 33%)Planted, week ending Apr 17: 38% (5-yr avg 47%, last year 52%)Planted, week ending Apr 24: 51% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 67%)Planted, week ending May 1: 60% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 78%)Planted, week ending May 8: 75% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 92%)Planted, week ending May 15: 85% (5-yr avg —, last year 97%)Planted, week ending May 22: 96% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 3Apr 10Apr 17Apr 24May 1May 8May 15May 22
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 96% as of May 22.

Field progress

Emerged, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Oregon potato emerged, 20220%50%100%Emerged, week ending May 1: 8% (5-yr avg —, last year 32%)Emerged, week ending May 8: 21% (5-yr avg 40%, last year 50%)Emerged, week ending May 15: 35% (5-yr avg 50%, last year 57%)Emerged, week ending May 22: 59% (5-yr avg 63%, last year 62%)Emerged, week ending May 29: 70% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 74%)Emerged, week ending Jun 5: 82% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 89%)Emerged, week ending Jun 12: 90% (5-yr avg 96%, last year 94%)Emerged, week ending Jun 19: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)May 1May 8May 15May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 95% as of Jun 19.

Field progress

Harvested, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Oregon potato harvested, 20220%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 17: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 2%)Harvested, week ending Jul 24: 0% (5-yr avg 8%, last year 9%)Harvested, week ending Jul 31: 1% (5-yr avg 14%, last year 15%)Harvested, week ending Aug 7: 11% (5-yr avg 20%, last year 22%)Harvested, week ending Aug 14: 21% (5-yr avg 25%, last year 27%)Harvested, week ending Aug 21: 27% (5-yr avg 30%, last year 32%)Harvested, week ending Aug 28: 36% (5-yr avg 36%, last year 38%)Harvested, week ending Sep 4: 42% (5-yr avg 42%, last year 48%)Harvested, week ending Sep 11: 47% (5-yr avg 47%, last year 56%)Harvested, week ending Sep 18: 52% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 60%)Harvested, week ending Sep 25: 60% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 66%)Harvested, week ending Oct 2: 66% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 70%)Harvested, week ending Oct 9: 77% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 81%)Harvested, week ending Oct 16: 85% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 90%)Harvested, week ending Oct 23: 91% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 94%)Harvested, week ending Oct 30: 95% (5-yr avg 95%, last year 96%)Jul 17Jul 31Aug 14Aug 28Sep 11Sep 25Oct 9Oct 23
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 95% as of Oct 30 (5-yr avg 95%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Oregon potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final0102030million cwt2014: no forecast · final 24.9 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 24.6 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 26.5 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 25.2 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 27.0 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 22.7 million cwt · final 25.3 million cwt (+11.6%)+11.6%20192020: Nov forecast 27.9 million cwt · final 27.0 million cwt (-3.2%)−3.2%20202021: Nov forecast 25.5 million cwt · final 26.9 million cwt (+5.3%)+5.3%20212022: Nov forecast 25.3 million cwt · final 26.4 million cwt (+4.3%)+4.3%20222023: Nov forecast 27.2 million cwt · final 26.7 million cwt (-2.1%)−2.1%20232024: Nov forecast 26.3 million cwt · final 26.2 million cwt (-0.3%)−0.3%20242025: Nov forecast 26.0 million cwt · final 26.0 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202526.0 November26.00.0%$263M6.2%
202426.3 November26.2−0.3%$298M6.2%
202327.2 November26.7−2.1%$309M6.1%
202225.3 November26.4+4.3%$272M6.6%
202125.5 November26.9+5.3%$242M6.5%
202027.9 November27.0−3.2%$216M6.4%
201922.7 November25.3+11.6%$234M6.0%
2018—27.0—$202M6.0%
2017—25.2—$198M5.6%
2016—26.5—$209M5.9%
2015—24.6—$202M5.5%
2014—24.9—$197M5.5%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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