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Oregon · crop watch

Oregon potato crop

USDA last rated the 2021 Oregon potato crop for the week ending Sep 5, when 59% was good or excellent, 16 points below the five-year average of 75%, versus 56% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 96% complete. USDA's November forecast puts the 2021 crop at 25.5 million cwt, down 5.4% from last year's final of 27.0.

Last rated week ending Sep 5, 2021

Good to excellent · last reading

59%of the crop

16 points below the five-year average for this week, and 56% a year ago.

–

96%

Harvested

As of Oct 31.

▼

26.0

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−0.5% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Oregon potato forecast holds near last year's mark

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Oregon potato crop at 26 million cwt for the 2025 crop year, down 0.5% from last year's final total of 26.2 million cwt and below the 26.7 million cwt logged two years earlier. Oregon's first calls have typically finished about 1.4% higher than the initial forecast, so history points to some upward room before USDA locks in a final number. With supply essentially flat year over year, the crop is tracking close to recent levels rather than breaking from them.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±2.4%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2021

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Oregon potato crop condition, 20210%25%50%75%100%Week ending May 16: Very poor 3%, Poor 5%, Fair 24%, Good 42%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 68% (5-yr avg —, last year 50%)Week ending May 23: Very poor 3%, Poor 5%, Fair 24%, Good 42%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 68% (5-yr avg —, last year 65%)Week ending May 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 25%, Good 46%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 73%, last year 64%)Week ending Jun 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 25%, Good 46%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 64%)Week ending Jun 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 4%, Fair 18%, Good 49%, Excellent 29% — good+excellent 78% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 68%)Week ending Jun 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 4%, Fair 25%, Good 45%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 71% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 69%)Week ending Jun 27: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 25%, Good 46%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 69%)Week ending Jul 4: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 25%, Good 46%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 72%)Week ending Jul 11: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 25%, Good 46%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 68%)Week ending Jul 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 25%, Good 46%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 71%)Week ending Jul 25: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 25%, Good 46%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 61%)Week ending Aug 1: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 25%, Good 46%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 66%)Week ending Aug 8: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 28%, Good 45%, Excellent 24% — good+excellent 69% (5-yr avg 76%, last year 63%)Week ending Aug 15: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 28%, Good 45%, Excellent 24% — good+excellent 69% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 59%)Week ending Aug 22: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 28%, Good 45%, Excellent 24% — good+excellent 69% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 56%)Week ending Aug 29: Very poor 0%, Poor 4%, Fair 28%, Good 52%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 68% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 55%)Week ending Sep 5: Very poor 0%, Poor 9%, Fair 32%, Good 46%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 59% (5-yr avg 75%, last year 56%)Harvest begins — week ending Jul 11Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 5USDA forecast−9 pts — week ending Sep 5−9 ptsMay 16Jun 6Jun 27Jul 18Aug 8Aug 29
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 59% good or excellent, week ending Sep 5. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Oregon potato planted, 20210%50%100%Planted, week ending Mar 28: 16% (5-yr avg —, last year 0%)Planted, week ending Apr 4: 29% (5-yr avg 13%, last year 23%)Planted, week ending Apr 11: 34% (5-yr avg 25%, last year 46%)Planted, week ending Apr 18: 55% (5-yr avg 43%, last year 69%)Planted, week ending Apr 25: 69% (5-yr avg 55%, last year 83%)Planted, week ending May 2: 80% (5-yr avg 67%, last year 90%)Planted, week ending May 9: 94% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 96%)Planted, week ending May 16: 97% (5-yr avg —, last year 100%)Mar 28Apr 4Apr 11Apr 18Apr 25May 2May 9May 16
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 97% as of May 16.

Field progress

Emerged, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Oregon potato emerged, 20210%50%100%Emerged, week ending Apr 25: 17% (5-yr avg —, last year 29%)Emerged, week ending May 2: 35% (5-yr avg —, last year 39%)Emerged, week ending May 9: 53% (5-yr avg —, last year 60%)Emerged, week ending May 16: 58% (5-yr avg —, last year 66%)Emerged, week ending May 23: 63% (5-yr avg 59%, last year 71%)Emerged, week ending May 30: 76% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 81%)Emerged, week ending Jun 6: 91% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 93%)Emerged, week ending Jun 13: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 25May 2May 9May 16May 23May 30Jun 6Jun 13
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 95% as of Jun 13.

Field progress

Harvested, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Oregon potato harvested, 20210%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 4: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 11: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 18: 2% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 25: 10% (5-yr avg 11%, last year 3%)Harvested, week ending Aug 1: 16% (5-yr avg 17%, last year 7%)Harvested, week ending Aug 8: 23% (5-yr avg 22%, last year 15%)Harvested, week ending Aug 15: 28% (5-yr avg 29%, last year 21%)Harvested, week ending Aug 22: 33% (5-yr avg 35%, last year 29%)Harvested, week ending Aug 29: 39% (5-yr avg 41%, last year 34%)Harvested, week ending Sep 5: 50% (5-yr avg 45%, last year 41%)Harvested, week ending Sep 12: 57% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 45%)Harvested, week ending Sep 19: 60% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 50%)Harvested, week ending Sep 26: 67% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 60%)Harvested, week ending Oct 3: 71% (5-yr avg 70%, last year 69%)Harvested, week ending Oct 10: 83% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 79%)Harvested, week ending Oct 17: 91% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 91%)Harvested, week ending Oct 24: 94% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 96%)Harvested, week ending Oct 31: 96% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Jul 4Jul 25Aug 15Sep 5Sep 26Oct 17
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 96% as of Oct 31.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Oregon potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final0102030million cwt2014: no forecast · final 24.9 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 24.6 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 26.5 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 25.2 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 27.0 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 22.7 million cwt · final 25.3 million cwt (+11.6%)+11.6%20192020: Nov forecast 27.9 million cwt · final 27.0 million cwt (-3.2%)−3.2%20202021: Nov forecast 25.5 million cwt · final 26.9 million cwt (+5.3%)+5.3%20212022: Nov forecast 25.3 million cwt · final 26.4 million cwt (+4.3%)+4.3%20222023: Nov forecast 27.2 million cwt · final 26.7 million cwt (-2.1%)−2.1%20232024: Nov forecast 26.3 million cwt · final 26.2 million cwt (-0.3%)−0.3%20242025: Nov forecast 26.0 million cwt · final 26.0 million cwt (+0.0%)+0.0%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202526.0 November26.00.0%$263M6.2%
202426.3 November26.2−0.3%$298M6.2%
202327.2 November26.7−2.1%$309M6.1%
202225.3 November26.4+4.3%$272M6.6%
202125.5 November26.9+5.3%$242M6.5%
202027.9 November27.0−3.2%$216M6.4%
201922.7 November25.3+11.6%$234M6.0%
2018—27.0—$202M6.0%
2017—25.2—$198M5.6%
2016—26.5—$209M5.9%
2015—24.6—$202M5.5%
2014—24.9—$197M5.5%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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