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Washington · crop watch

Washington potato crop

USDA last rated the 2020 Washington potato crop for the week ending Aug 30, when 82% was good or excellent, 5 points above the five-year average of 77%, versus 70% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 95% complete (five-year average 96%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2020 crop at 96.3 million cwt, down 8.3% from last year's final of 105.0.

Last rated week ending Aug 30, 2020

Good to excellent · last reading

82%of the crop

5 points above the five-year average for this week, and 70% a year ago.

▼

95%

Harvested

−1 points against the five-year pace of 96%.

▼

88.6

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−10.4% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Washington potato crop forecast down 10% for 2025

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Washington potato crop at 88.6 million cwt, down 10.4% from last year's final total of 98.9 million cwt and further below the 103.6 million cwt produced two years ago. The decline marks a second straight year of lower output for the state. USDA's forecasts for this crop have historically finished about 0.2% smaller than the first estimate of the season, a small enough margin that the November number is unlikely to shift much by the time the final figure is set.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±1.6%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2020

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Washington potato crop condition, 20200%25%50%75%100%Week ending May 24: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 12%, Good 72%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 88% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 53%)Week ending May 31: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 13%, Good 67%, Excellent 20% — good+excellent 87% (5-yr avg 76%, last year 55%)Week ending Jun 7: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 16%, Good 66%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 81% (5-yr avg 73%, last year 68%)Week ending Jun 14: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 8%, Good 74%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 90% (5-yr avg 76%, last year 56%)Week ending Jun 21: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 7%, Good 72%, Excellent 19% — good+excellent 91% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 71%)Week ending Jun 28: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 14%, Good 64%, Excellent 19% — good+excellent 83% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 82%)Week ending Jul 5: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 17%, Good 61%, Excellent 19% — good+excellent 80% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 57%)Week ending Jul 12: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 19%, Good 59%, Excellent 19% — good+excellent 78% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 79%)Week ending Jul 19: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 21%, Good 56%, Excellent 20% — good+excellent 76% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 73%)Week ending Jul 26: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 10%, Good 61%, Excellent 27% — good+excellent 88% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 89%)Week ending Aug 2: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 13%, Good 57%, Excellent 28% — good+excellent 85% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 70%)Week ending Aug 9: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 15%, Good 57%, Excellent 26% — good+excellent 83% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 59%)Week ending Aug 16: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 12%, Good 64%, Excellent 22% — good+excellent 86% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 83%)Week ending Aug 23: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 14%, Good 62%, Excellent 22% — good+excellent 84% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 78%)Week ending Aug 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 15%, Good 58%, Excellent 24% — good+excellent 82% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 70%)−8 pts — week ending Jun 28−8 ptsHarvest begins — week ending Jul 26Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Aug 30USDA forecastMay 24Jun 7Jun 21Jul 5Jul 19Aug 2Aug 16Aug 30
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 82% good or excellent, week ending Aug 30. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Washington potato planted, 20200%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 5: 27% (5-yr avg 16%, last year 12%)Planted, week ending Apr 12: 36% (5-yr avg 29%, last year 18%)Planted, week ending Apr 19: 44% (5-yr avg 47%, last year 28%)Planted, week ending Apr 26: 47% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 46%)Planted, week ending May 3: 76% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 65%)Planted, week ending May 10: 86% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 81%)Planted, week ending May 17: 98% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 93%)Apr 5Apr 12Apr 19Apr 26May 3May 10May 17
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 98% as of May 17 (5-yr avg 94%).

Field progress

Emerged, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Washington potato emerged, 20200%50%100%Emerged, week ending Apr 19: 2% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending Apr 26: 3% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending May 3: 16% (5-yr avg —, last year 6%)Emerged, week ending May 10: 27% (5-yr avg —, last year 22%)Emerged, week ending May 17: 55% (5-yr avg —, last year 39%)Emerged, week ending May 24: 73% (5-yr avg —, last year 60%)Emerged, week ending May 31: 86% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 81%)Emerged, week ending Jun 7: 90% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 91%)Emerged, week ending Jun 14: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year 95%)Apr 19May 3May 17May 31Jun 14
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 95% as of Jun 14.

Field progress

Harvested, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Washington potato harvested, 20200%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 26: 7% (5-yr avg 6%, last year 6%)Harvested, week ending Aug 2: 14% (5-yr avg 11%, last year 10%)Harvested, week ending Aug 9: 25% (5-yr avg 17%, last year 11%)Harvested, week ending Aug 16: 33% (5-yr avg 22%, last year 13%)Harvested, week ending Aug 23: 39% (5-yr avg 26%, last year 16%)Harvested, week ending Aug 30: 41% (5-yr avg 30%, last year 20%)Harvested, week ending Sep 6: 46% (5-yr avg 36%, last year 22%)Harvested, week ending Sep 13: 51% (5-yr avg 40%, last year 29%)Harvested, week ending Sep 20: 57% (5-yr avg 47%, last year 39%)Harvested, week ending Sep 27: 68% (5-yr avg 54%, last year 51%)Harvested, week ending Oct 4: 69% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 56%)Harvested, week ending Oct 11: 77% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 74%)Harvested, week ending Oct 18: 83% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 83%)Harvested, week ending Oct 25: 92% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 90%)Harvested, week ending Nov 1: 95% (5-yr avg 96%, last year 94%)Jul 26Aug 9Aug 23Sep 6Sep 20Oct 4Oct 18Nov 1
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 95% as of Nov 1 (5-yr avg 96%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Washington potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final050100150million cwt2014: no forecast · final 101.5 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 100.3 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 105.6 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 99.2 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 100.8 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 101.5 million cwt · final 105.0 million cwt (+3.4%)+3.4%20192020: Nov forecast 96.3 million cwt · final 99.7 million cwt (+3.5%)+3.5%20202021: Nov forecast 93.3 million cwt · final 91.9 million cwt (-1.5%)−1.5%20212022: Nov forecast 94.9 million cwt · final 95.4 million cwt (+0.5%)+0.5%20222023: Nov forecast 101.2 million cwt · final 103.6 million cwt (+2.4%)+2.4%20232024: Nov forecast 99.7 million cwt · final 98.9 million cwt (-0.8%)−0.8%20242025: Nov forecast 88.6 million cwt · final 91.0 million cwt (+2.8%)+2.8%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202588.6 November91.0+2.8%$825M21.8%
202499.7 November98.9−0.8%$1,028M23.5%
2023101.2 November103.6+2.4%$1,161M23.5%
202294.9 November95.4+0.5%$943M23.7%
202193.3 November91.9−1.5%$712M22.3%
202096.3 November99.7+3.5%$753M23.7%
2019101.5 November105.0+3.4%$934M24.8%
2018—100.8—$788M22.4%
2017—99.2—$687M22.0%
2016—105.6—$813M23.5%
2015—100.3—$772M22.4%
2014—101.5—$771M22.6%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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