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Washington · crop watch

Washington potato crop

USDA last rated the 2024 Washington potato crop for the week ending Sep 15, when 72% was good or excellent, versus 46% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 95% complete (five-year average 84%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2024 crop at 99.7 million cwt, down 3.8% from last year's final of 103.6.

Last rated week ending Sep 15, 2024

Good to excellent · last reading

72%of the crop

Share of the 2024 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 15.

▲

95%

Harvested

+11 points against the five-year pace of 84%.

▼

88.6

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−10.4% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Washington potato crop forecast down 10% for 2025

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Washington potato crop at 88.6 million cwt, down 10.4% from last year's final total of 98.9 million cwt and further below the 103.6 million cwt produced two years ago. The decline marks a second straight year of lower output for the state. USDA's forecasts for this crop have historically finished about 0.2% smaller than the first estimate of the season, a small enough margin that the November number is unlikely to shift much by the time the final figure is set.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±1.6%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2024

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Washington potato crop condition, 20240%25%50%75%100%Week ending May 19: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 9%, Good 90%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 91% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending May 26: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 9%, Good 90%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 90% (5-yr avg —, last year 46%)Week ending Jun 2: Very poor 0%, Poor 8%, Fair 12%, Good 72%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 80% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 50%)Week ending Jun 9: Very poor 0%, Poor 11%, Fair 27%, Good 52%, Excellent 10% — good+excellent 62% (5-yr avg 59%, last year 52%)Week ending Jun 16: Very poor 0%, Poor 12%, Fair 35%, Good 41%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 53% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 54%)Week ending Jun 23: Very poor 0%, Poor 7%, Fair 33%, Good 53%, Excellent 7% — good+excellent 60% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 63%)Week ending Jun 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 10%, Fair 13%, Good 68%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 58%)Week ending Jul 7: Very poor 0%, Poor 10%, Fair 14%, Good 67%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 76% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 51%)Week ending Jul 14: Very poor 0%, Poor 5%, Fair 12%, Good 78%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 83% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 57%)Week ending Jul 21: Very poor 0%, Poor 9%, Fair 16%, Good 66%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 75% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 57%)Week ending Jul 28: Very poor 0%, Poor 5%, Fair 10%, Good 75%, Excellent 10% — good+excellent 85% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 55%)Week ending Aug 4: Very poor 0%, Poor 5%, Fair 19%, Good 66%, Excellent 10% — good+excellent 76% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 46%)Week ending Aug 11: Very poor 0%, Poor 5%, Fair 21%, Good 65%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 74% (5-yr avg 55%, last year 40%)Week ending Aug 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 6%, Fair 24%, Good 63%, Excellent 7% — good+excellent 70% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 34%)Week ending Aug 25: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 17%, Good 74%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 80% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 36%)Week ending Sep 1: Very poor 0%, Poor 4%, Fair 17%, Good 72%, Excellent 7% — good+excellent 79% (5-yr avg —, last year 39%)Week ending Sep 8: Very poor 0%, Poor 4%, Fair 21%, Good 70%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 75% (5-yr avg —, last year 44%)Week ending Sep 15: Very poor 0%, Poor 6%, Fair 22%, Good 62%, Excellent 10% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg —, last year 46%)−18 pts — week ending Jun 9−18 ptsHarvest begins — week ending Jul 7Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 15USDA forecastMay 19Jun 9Jun 30Jul 21Aug 11Sep 1
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 72% good or excellent, week ending Sep 15. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2024

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Washington potato planted, 20240%50%100%Planted, week ending Mar 31: 6% (5-yr avg 8%, last year 1%)Planted, week ending Apr 7: 11% (5-yr avg 18%, last year 6%)Planted, week ending Apr 14: 41% (5-yr avg 27%, last year 16%)Planted, week ending Apr 21: 66% (5-yr avg 41%, last year 41%)Planted, week ending Apr 28: 78% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 54%)Planted, week ending May 5: 91% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 69%)Planted, week ending May 12: 96% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 78%)Mar 31Apr 7Apr 14Apr 21Apr 28May 5May 12
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 96% as of May 12 (5-yr avg 84%).

Field progress

Emerged, 2024

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Washington potato emerged, 20240%50%100%Emerged, week ending Apr 21: 2% (5-yr avg —, last year 8%)Emerged, week ending Apr 28: 7% (5-yr avg —, last year 16%)Emerged, week ending May 5: 24% (5-yr avg 15%, last year 23%)Emerged, week ending May 12: 46% (5-yr avg 28%, last year 32%)Emerged, week ending May 19: 78% (5-yr avg 45%, last year 42%)Emerged, week ending May 26: 89% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 63%)Emerged, week ending Jun 2: 91% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 78%)Emerged, week ending Jun 9: 98% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 88%)Apr 21Apr 28May 5May 12May 19May 26Jun 2Jun 9
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 98% as of Jun 9 (5-yr avg 86%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2024

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Washington potato harvested, 20240%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 7: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 14: 4% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 21: 6% (5-yr avg —, last year 1%)Harvested, week ending Jul 28: 7% (5-yr avg 6%, last year 2%)Harvested, week ending Aug 4: 13% (5-yr avg 10%, last year 6%)Harvested, week ending Aug 11: 15% (5-yr avg 15%, last year 8%)Harvested, week ending Aug 18: 19% (5-yr avg 20%, last year 14%)Harvested, week ending Aug 25: 24% (5-yr avg 26%, last year 20%)Harvested, week ending Sep 1: 32% (5-yr avg 31%, last year 28%)Harvested, week ending Sep 8: 39% (5-yr avg 36%, last year 34%)Harvested, week ending Sep 15: 45% (5-yr avg 43%, last year 41%)Harvested, week ending Sep 22: 50% (5-yr avg 50%, last year 49%)Harvested, week ending Sep 29: 55% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 60%)Harvested, week ending Oct 6: 65% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 67%)Harvested, week ending Oct 13: 84% (5-yr avg 76%, last year 77%)Harvested, week ending Oct 20: 95% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 86%)Jul 7Jul 21Aug 4Aug 18Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 95% as of Oct 20 (5-yr avg 84%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Washington potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final050100150million cwt2014: no forecast · final 101.5 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 100.3 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 105.6 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 99.2 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 100.8 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 101.5 million cwt · final 105.0 million cwt (+3.4%)+3.4%20192020: Nov forecast 96.3 million cwt · final 99.7 million cwt (+3.5%)+3.5%20202021: Nov forecast 93.3 million cwt · final 91.9 million cwt (-1.5%)−1.5%20212022: Nov forecast 94.9 million cwt · final 95.4 million cwt (+0.5%)+0.5%20222023: Nov forecast 101.2 million cwt · final 103.6 million cwt (+2.4%)+2.4%20232024: Nov forecast 99.7 million cwt · final 98.9 million cwt (-0.8%)−0.8%20242025: Nov forecast 88.6 million cwt · final 91.0 million cwt (+2.8%)+2.8%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202588.6 November91.0+2.8%$825M21.8%
202499.7 November98.9−0.8%$1,028M23.5%
2023101.2 November103.6+2.4%$1,161M23.5%
202294.9 November95.4+0.5%$943M23.7%
202193.3 November91.9−1.5%$712M22.3%
202096.3 November99.7+3.5%$753M23.7%
2019101.5 November105.0+3.4%$934M24.8%
2018—100.8—$788M22.4%
2017—99.2—$687M22.0%
2016—105.6—$813M23.5%
2015—100.3—$772M22.4%
2014—101.5—$771M22.6%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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