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Washington · crop watch

Washington potato crop

USDA last rated the 2023 Washington potato crop for the week ending Sep 24, when 42% was good or excellent, versus 77% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 95% complete (five-year average 93%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2023 crop at 101.2 million cwt, up 6.0% from last year's final of 95.4.

Last rated week ending Sep 24, 2023

Good to excellent · last reading

42%of the crop

Share of the 2023 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 24.

▲

95%

Harvested

+2 points against the five-year pace of 93%.

▼

88.6

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−10.4% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Washington potato crop forecast down 10% for 2025

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Washington potato crop at 88.6 million cwt, down 10.4% from last year's final total of 98.9 million cwt and further below the 103.6 million cwt produced two years ago. The decline marks a second straight year of lower output for the state. USDA's forecasts for this crop have historically finished about 0.2% smaller than the first estimate of the season, a small enough margin that the November number is unlikely to shift much by the time the final figure is set.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±1.6%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2023

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Washington potato crop condition, 20230%25%50%75%100%Week ending May 28: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 53%, Good 34%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 46% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jun 4: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 49%, Good 38%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 50% (5-yr avg 59%, last year 40%)Week ending Jun 11: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 47%, Good 40%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 52% (5-yr avg 63%, last year 48%)Week ending Jun 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 46%, Good 41%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 54% (5-yr avg 67%, last year 53%)Week ending Jun 25: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 36%, Good 52%, Excellent 11% — good+excellent 63% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 59%)Week ending Jul 2: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 40%, Good 46%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 58% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 59%)Week ending Jul 9: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 48%, Good 39%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 51% (5-yr avg 67%, last year 67%)Week ending Jul 16: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 42%, Good 44%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 57% (5-yr avg 65%, last year 71%)Week ending Jul 23: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 43%, Good 42%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 57% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 75%)Week ending Jul 30: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 44%, Good 39%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 55% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 75%)Week ending Aug 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 53%, Good 32%, Excellent 14% — good+excellent 46% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 76%)Week ending Aug 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 59%, Good 26%, Excellent 14% — good+excellent 40% (5-yr avg 67%, last year 78%)Week ending Aug 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 64%, Good 22%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 34% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 81%)Week ending Aug 27: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 63%, Good 24%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 36% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 81%)Week ending Sep 3: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 60%, Good 27%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 39% (5-yr avg —, last year 81%)Week ending Sep 10: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 56%, Good 30%, Excellent 14% — good+excellent 44% (5-yr avg —, last year 73%)Week ending Sep 17: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 54%, Good 30%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 46% (5-yr avg —, last year 74%)Week ending Sep 24: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 58%, Good 26%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 42% (5-yr avg —, last year 77%)Harvest begins — week ending Jul 23Harvest begins−9 pts — week ending Aug 6−9 ptsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 24USDA forecastMay 28Jun 18Jul 9Jul 30Aug 20Sep 10
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 42% good or excellent, week ending Sep 24. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Washington potato planted, 20230%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 2: 2% (5-yr avg 14%, last year 13%)Planted, week ending Apr 9: 8% (5-yr avg 24%, last year 19%)Planted, week ending Apr 16: 19% (5-yr avg 35%, last year 21%)Planted, week ending Apr 23: 50% (5-yr avg 49%, last year 29%)Planted, week ending Apr 30: 56% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 49%)Planted, week ending May 7: 74% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 59%)Planted, week ending May 14: 80% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 85%)Planted, week ending May 21: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year 94%)Apr 2Apr 9Apr 16Apr 23Apr 30May 7May 14May 21
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 95% as of May 21.

Field progress

Emerged, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Washington potato emerged, 20230%50%100%Emerged, week ending Apr 16: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending Apr 23: 11% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending Apr 30: 18% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending May 7: 25% (5-yr avg 16%, last year 8%)Emerged, week ending May 14: 35% (5-yr avg 34%, last year 18%)Emerged, week ending May 21: 45% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 31%)Emerged, week ending May 28: 70% (5-yr avg 73%, last year 39%)Emerged, week ending Jun 4: 81% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 45%)Emerged, week ending Jun 11: 91% (5-yr avg —, last year 73%)Emerged, week ending Jun 18: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year 88%)Apr 16Apr 30May 14May 28Jun 11
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 95% as of Jun 18.

Field progress

Harvested, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Washington potato harvested, 20230%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 16: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 23: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Jul 30: 3% (5-yr avg 8%, last year 2%)Harvested, week ending Aug 6: 7% (5-yr avg 13%, last year 3%)Harvested, week ending Aug 13: 9% (5-yr avg 18%, last year 7%)Harvested, week ending Aug 20: 16% (5-yr avg 22%, last year 11%)Harvested, week ending Aug 27: 22% (5-yr avg 27%, last year 21%)Harvested, week ending Sep 3: 30% (5-yr avg 31%, last year 29%)Harvested, week ending Sep 10: 35% (5-yr avg 36%, last year 37%)Harvested, week ending Sep 17: 43% (5-yr avg 42%, last year 42%)Harvested, week ending Sep 24: 51% (5-yr avg 50%, last year 50%)Harvested, week ending Oct 1: 63% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 54%)Harvested, week ending Oct 8: 69% (5-yr avg 65%, last year 64%)Harvested, week ending Oct 15: 80% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 75%)Harvested, week ending Oct 22: 88% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 86%)Harvested, week ending Oct 29: 95% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 97%)Jul 16Jul 30Aug 13Aug 27Sep 10Sep 24Oct 8Oct 22
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 95% as of Oct 29 (5-yr avg 93%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Washington potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final050100150million cwt2014: no forecast · final 101.5 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 100.3 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 105.6 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 99.2 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 100.8 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 101.5 million cwt · final 105.0 million cwt (+3.4%)+3.4%20192020: Nov forecast 96.3 million cwt · final 99.7 million cwt (+3.5%)+3.5%20202021: Nov forecast 93.3 million cwt · final 91.9 million cwt (-1.5%)−1.5%20212022: Nov forecast 94.9 million cwt · final 95.4 million cwt (+0.5%)+0.5%20222023: Nov forecast 101.2 million cwt · final 103.6 million cwt (+2.4%)+2.4%20232024: Nov forecast 99.7 million cwt · final 98.9 million cwt (-0.8%)−0.8%20242025: Nov forecast 88.6 million cwt · final 91.0 million cwt (+2.8%)+2.8%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202588.6 November91.0+2.8%$825M21.8%
202499.7 November98.9−0.8%$1,028M23.5%
2023101.2 November103.6+2.4%$1,161M23.5%
202294.9 November95.4+0.5%$943M23.7%
202193.3 November91.9−1.5%$712M22.3%
202096.3 November99.7+3.5%$753M23.7%
2019101.5 November105.0+3.4%$934M24.8%
2018—100.8—$788M22.4%
2017—99.2—$687M22.0%
2016—105.6—$813M23.5%
2015—100.3—$772M22.4%
2014—101.5—$771M22.6%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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