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Washington · crop watch

Washington potato crop

USDA last rated the 2021 Washington potato crop for the week ending Sep 12, when 14% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 98% complete. USDA's November forecast puts the 2021 crop at 93.3 million cwt, down 6.4% from last year's final of 99.7.

Last rated week ending Sep 12, 2021

Good to excellent · last reading

14%of the crop

Share of the 2021 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 12.

–

98%

Harvested

As of Nov 7.

▼

88.6

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−10.4% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Washington potato crop forecast down 10% for 2025

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Washington potato crop at 88.6 million cwt, down 10.4% from last year's final total of 98.9 million cwt and further below the 103.6 million cwt produced two years ago. The decline marks a second straight year of lower output for the state. USDA's forecasts for this crop have historically finished about 0.2% smaller than the first estimate of the season, a small enough margin that the November number is unlikely to shift much by the time the final figure is set.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±1.6%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2021

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Washington potato crop condition, 20210%25%50%75%100%Week ending May 23: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 69%, Good 30%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 31% (5-yr avg 75%, last year 88%)Week ending May 30: Very poor 1%, Poor 1%, Fair 61%, Good 36%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 37% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 87%)Week ending Jun 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 45%, Good 54%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 54% (5-yr avg 73%, last year 81%)Week ending Jun 13: Very poor 3%, Poor 4%, Fair 55%, Good 35%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 38% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 90%)Week ending Jun 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 3%, Fair 65%, Good 23%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 32% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 91%)Week ending Jun 27: Very poor 1%, Poor 1%, Fair 64%, Good 31%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 34% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 83%)Week ending Jul 4: Very poor 2%, Poor 2%, Fair 62%, Good 29%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 34% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 80%)Week ending Jul 11: Very poor 4%, Poor 9%, Fair 59%, Good 26%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 28% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 78%)Week ending Jul 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 12%, Fair 67%, Good 21%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 21% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 76%)Week ending Jul 25: Very poor 0%, Poor 16%, Fair 69%, Good 15%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 15% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 88%)Week ending Aug 1: Very poor 0%, Poor 27%, Fair 66%, Good 7%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 7% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 85%)Week ending Aug 8: Very poor 0%, Poor 33%, Fair 60%, Good 7%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 7% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 83%)Week ending Aug 15: Very poor 0%, Poor 29%, Fair 58%, Good 13%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 13% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 86%)Week ending Aug 22: Very poor 0%, Poor 26%, Fair 56%, Good 18%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 18% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 84%)Week ending Aug 29: Very poor 0%, Poor 24%, Fair 59%, Good 17%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 17% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 82%)Week ending Sep 5: Very poor 0%, Poor 26%, Fair 60%, Good 14%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 14% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Sep 12: Very poor 0%, Poor 26%, Fair 60%, Good 14%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 14% (5-yr avg —, last year —)−16 pts — week ending Jun 13−16 ptsHarvest begins — week ending Jul 11Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 12USDA forecastMay 23Jun 13Jul 4Jul 25Aug 15Sep 5
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 14% good or excellent, week ending Sep 12. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Washington potato planted, 20210%50%100%Planted, week ending Mar 28: 2% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Planted, week ending Apr 4: 19% (5-yr avg 12%, last year 24%)Planted, week ending Apr 11: 32% (5-yr avg 23%, last year 35%)Planted, week ending Apr 18: 49% (5-yr avg 38%, last year 43%)Planted, week ending Apr 25: 79% (5-yr avg 50%, last year 47%)Planted, week ending May 2: 81% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 72%)Planted, week ending May 9: 91% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 85%)Planted, week ending May 16: 96% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 96%)Mar 28Apr 4Apr 11Apr 18Apr 25May 2May 9May 16
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 96% as of May 16 (5-yr avg 93%).

Field progress

Emerged, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Washington potato emerged, 20210%50%100%Emerged, week ending Apr 25: 5% (5-yr avg —, last year 3%)Emerged, week ending May 2: 17% (5-yr avg —, last year 14%)Emerged, week ending May 9: 23% (5-yr avg —, last year 25%)Emerged, week ending May 16: 41% (5-yr avg —, last year 51%)Emerged, week ending May 23: 68% (5-yr avg —, last year 70%)Emerged, week ending May 30: 88% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 84%)Emerged, week ending Jun 6: 91% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 89%)Emerged, week ending Jun 13: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year 94%)Apr 25May 2May 9May 16May 23May 30Jun 6Jun 13
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 95% as of Jun 13.

Field progress

Harvested, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Washington potato harvested, 20210%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 4: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 11: 3% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 18: 4% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Jul 25: 6% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Aug 1: 11% (5-yr avg 10%, last year 13%)Harvested, week ending Aug 8: 19% (5-yr avg 17%, last year 23%)Harvested, week ending Aug 15: 26% (5-yr avg 23%, last year 32%)Harvested, week ending Aug 22: 31% (5-yr avg 27%, last year 38%)Harvested, week ending Aug 29: 35% (5-yr avg 30%, last year 41%)Harvested, week ending Sep 5: 38% (5-yr avg 35%, last year 45%)Harvested, week ending Sep 12: 45% (5-yr avg 40%, last year 50%)Harvested, week ending Sep 19: 48% (5-yr avg 45%, last year 56%)Harvested, week ending Sep 26: 55% (5-yr avg 54%, last year 66%)Harvested, week ending Oct 3: 59% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 69%)Harvested, week ending Oct 10: 68% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 76%)Harvested, week ending Oct 17: 78% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 82%)Harvested, week ending Oct 24: 90% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 91%)Harvested, week ending Oct 31: 93% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 95%)Harvested, week ending Nov 7: 98% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Jul 4Jul 25Aug 15Sep 5Sep 26Oct 17Nov 7
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 98% as of Nov 7.

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Washington potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final050100150million cwt2014: no forecast · final 101.5 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 100.3 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 105.6 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 99.2 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 100.8 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 101.5 million cwt · final 105.0 million cwt (+3.4%)+3.4%20192020: Nov forecast 96.3 million cwt · final 99.7 million cwt (+3.5%)+3.5%20202021: Nov forecast 93.3 million cwt · final 91.9 million cwt (-1.5%)−1.5%20212022: Nov forecast 94.9 million cwt · final 95.4 million cwt (+0.5%)+0.5%20222023: Nov forecast 101.2 million cwt · final 103.6 million cwt (+2.4%)+2.4%20232024: Nov forecast 99.7 million cwt · final 98.9 million cwt (-0.8%)−0.8%20242025: Nov forecast 88.6 million cwt · final 91.0 million cwt (+2.8%)+2.8%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202588.6 November91.0+2.8%$825M21.8%
202499.7 November98.9−0.8%$1,028M23.5%
2023101.2 November103.6+2.4%$1,161M23.5%
202294.9 November95.4+0.5%$943M23.7%
202193.3 November91.9−1.5%$712M22.3%
202096.3 November99.7+3.5%$753M23.7%
2019101.5 November105.0+3.4%$934M24.8%
2018—100.8—$788M22.4%
2017—99.2—$687M22.0%
2016—105.6—$813M23.5%
2015—100.3—$772M22.4%
2014—101.5—$771M22.6%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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