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Washington · crop watch

Washington potato crop

USDA last rated the 2025 Washington potato crop for the week ending Sep 14, when 75% was good or excellent, versus 72% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 60% complete (five-year average 58%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2025 crop at 88.6 million cwt, down 10.4% from last year's final of 98.9.

Last rated week ending Sep 14, 2025

Good to excellent · last reading

75%of the crop

Share of the 2025 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 14.

▲

60%

Harvested

+2 points against the five-year pace of 58%.

▼

88.6

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−10.4% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Washington potato crop forecast down 10% for 2025

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Washington potato crop at 88.6 million cwt, down 10.4% from last year's final total of 98.9 million cwt and further below the 103.6 million cwt produced two years ago. The decline marks a second straight year of lower output for the state. USDA's forecasts for this crop have historically finished about 0.2% smaller than the first estimate of the season, a small enough margin that the November number is unlikely to shift much by the time the final figure is set.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±1.6%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2025

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Washington potato crop condition, 20250%25%50%75%100%Week ending May 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 85%, Good 15%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 15% (5-yr avg —, last year 91%)Week ending May 25: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 80%, Good 20%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 20% (5-yr avg —, last year 90%)Week ending Jun 1: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 70%, Good 30%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 30% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 80%)Week ending Jun 8: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 65%, Good 35%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 35% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 62%)Week ending Jun 15: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 60%, Good 40%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 40% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 53%)Week ending Jun 22: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 47%, Good 48%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 53% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 60%)Week ending Jun 29: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 38%, Good 58%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 62% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 77%)Week ending Jul 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 45%, Good 52%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 55% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 76%)Week ending Jul 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 44%, Good 53%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 56% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 83%)Week ending Jul 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 38%, Good 59%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 62% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 75%)Week ending Jul 27: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 35%, Good 61%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 63% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 85%)Week ending Aug 3: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 34%, Good 62%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 64% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 76%)Week ending Aug 10: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 28%, Good 68%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 70% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 74%)Week ending Aug 17: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 25%, Good 73%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 75% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 70%)Week ending Aug 24: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 27%, Good 71%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg 59%, last year 80%)Week ending Aug 31: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 27%, Good 71%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg —, last year 79%)Week ending Sep 7: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 25%, Good 72%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 75% (5-yr avg —, last year 75%)Week ending Sep 14: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 25%, Good 72%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 75% (5-yr avg —, last year 72%)−7 pts — week ending Jul 6−7 ptsHarvest begins — week ending Jul 13Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 14USDA forecastMay 18Jun 8Jun 29Jul 20Aug 10Aug 31
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 75% good or excellent, week ending Sep 14. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Washington potato planted, 20250%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 6: 13% (5-yr avg 17%, last year 10%)Planted, week ending Apr 13: 26% (5-yr avg 29%, last year 37%)Planted, week ending Apr 20: 50% (5-yr avg 45%, last year 62%)Planted, week ending Apr 27: 65% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 76%)Planted, week ending May 4: 89% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 89%)Planted, week ending May 11: 95% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 95%)Apr 6Apr 13Apr 20Apr 27May 4May 11
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 95% as of May 11 (5-yr avg 85%).

Field progress

Emerged, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Washington potato emerged, 20250%50%100%Emerged, week ending Apr 20: 5% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending Apr 27: 10% (5-yr avg 7%, last year 6%)Emerged, week ending May 4: 24% (5-yr avg 17%, last year 22%)Emerged, week ending May 11: 50% (5-yr avg 29%, last year 43%)Emerged, week ending May 18: 70% (5-yr avg 49%, last year 73%)Emerged, week ending May 25: 85% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 87%)Emerged, week ending Jun 1: 95% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 91%)Apr 20Apr 27May 4May 11May 18May 25Jun 1
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 95% as of Jun 1 (5-yr avg 77%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Washington potato harvested, 20250%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 6: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 1%)Harvested, week ending Jul 13: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year 4%)Harvested, week ending Jul 20: 2% (5-yr avg —, last year 6%)Harvested, week ending Jul 27: 5% (5-yr avg 5%, last year 7%)Harvested, week ending Aug 3: 9% (5-yr avg 10%, last year 12%)Harvested, week ending Aug 10: 13% (5-yr avg 15%, last year 15%)Harvested, week ending Aug 17: 17% (5-yr avg 20%, last year 18%)Harvested, week ending Aug 24: 26% (5-yr avg 26%, last year 23%)Harvested, week ending Aug 31: 34% (5-yr avg 32%, last year 31%)Harvested, week ending Sep 7: 39% (5-yr avg 38%, last year 38%)Harvested, week ending Sep 14: 50% (5-yr avg 44%, last year 44%)Harvested, week ending Sep 21: 56% (5-yr avg 50%, last year 49%)Harvested, week ending Sep 28: 60% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 54%)Jul 6Jul 20Aug 3Aug 17Aug 31Sep 14Sep 28
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 60% as of Sep 28 (5-yr avg 58%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Washington potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final050100150million cwt2014: no forecast · final 101.5 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 100.3 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 105.6 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 99.2 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 100.8 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 101.5 million cwt · final 105.0 million cwt (+3.4%)+3.4%20192020: Nov forecast 96.3 million cwt · final 99.7 million cwt (+3.5%)+3.5%20202021: Nov forecast 93.3 million cwt · final 91.9 million cwt (-1.5%)−1.5%20212022: Nov forecast 94.9 million cwt · final 95.4 million cwt (+0.5%)+0.5%20222023: Nov forecast 101.2 million cwt · final 103.6 million cwt (+2.4%)+2.4%20232024: Nov forecast 99.7 million cwt · final 98.9 million cwt (-0.8%)−0.8%20242025: Nov forecast 88.6 million cwt · final 91.0 million cwt (+2.8%)+2.8%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202588.6 November91.0+2.8%$825M21.8%
202499.7 November98.9−0.8%$1,028M23.5%
2023101.2 November103.6+2.4%$1,161M23.5%
202294.9 November95.4+0.5%$943M23.7%
202193.3 November91.9−1.5%$712M22.3%
202096.3 November99.7+3.5%$753M23.7%
2019101.5 November105.0+3.4%$934M24.8%
2018—100.8—$788M22.4%
2017—99.2—$687M22.0%
2016—105.6—$813M23.5%
2015—100.3—$772M22.4%
2014—101.5—$771M22.6%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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