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Washington · crop watch

Washington potato crop

USDA last rated the 2022 Washington potato crop for the week ending Sep 25, when 77% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 98% complete (five-year average 93%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2022 crop at 94.9 million cwt, up 3.2% from last year's final of 91.9.

Last rated week ending Sep 25, 2022

Good to excellent · last reading

77%of the crop

Share of the 2022 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 25.

▲

98%

Harvested

+5 points against the five-year pace of 93%.

▼

88.6

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−10.4% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Latest USDA forecast, November 2025

Washington potato crop forecast down 10% for 2025

USDA's November 2025 forecast puts the Washington potato crop at 88.6 million cwt, down 10.4% from last year's final total of 98.9 million cwt and further below the 103.6 million cwt produced two years ago. The decline marks a second straight year of lower output for the state. USDA's forecasts for this crop have historically finished about 0.2% smaller than the first estimate of the season, a small enough margin that the November number is unlikely to shift much by the time the final figure is set.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±1.6%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2022

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

202520242023202220212020
Washington potato crop condition, 20220%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 5: Very poor 4%, Poor 10%, Fair 46%, Good 31%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 40% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 54%)Week ending Jun 12: Very poor 3%, Poor 7%, Fair 42%, Good 41%, Excellent 7% — good+excellent 48% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 38%)Week ending Jun 19: Very poor 3%, Poor 6%, Fair 38%, Good 45%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 53% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 32%)Week ending Jun 26: Very poor 2%, Poor 4%, Fair 35%, Good 50%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 59% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 34%)Week ending Jul 3: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 37%, Good 52%, Excellent 7% — good+excellent 59% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 34%)Week ending Jul 10: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 29%, Good 59%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 67% (5-yr avg 71%, last year 28%)Week ending Jul 17: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 27%, Good 63%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 71% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 21%)Week ending Jul 24: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 21%, Good 69%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 75% (5-yr avg 71%, last year 15%)Week ending Jul 31: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 21%, Good 69%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 75% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 7%)Week ending Aug 7: Very poor 1%, Poor 2%, Fair 21%, Good 68%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 76% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 7%)Week ending Aug 14: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 20%, Good 72%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 78% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 13%)Week ending Aug 21: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 18%, Good 77%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 81% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 18%)Week ending Aug 28: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 19%, Good 78%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 81% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 17%)Week ending Sep 4: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 17%, Good 78%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 81% (5-yr avg —, last year 14%)Week ending Sep 11: Very poor 2%, Poor 4%, Fair 21%, Good 68%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg —, last year 14%)Week ending Sep 18: Very poor 3%, Poor 5%, Fair 18%, Good 71%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 74% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Sep 25: Very poor 3%, Poor 6%, Fair 14%, Good 74%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 77% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvest begins — week ending Jul 31Harvest begins−8 pts — week ending Sep 11−8 ptsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 25USDA forecastJun 5Jun 26Jul 17Aug 7Aug 28Sep 18
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 77% good or excellent, week ending Sep 25. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Washington potato planted, 20220%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 3: 15% (5-yr avg 14%, last year 17%)Planted, week ending Apr 10: 20% (5-yr avg 25%, last year 30%)Planted, week ending Apr 17: 21% (5-yr avg 39%, last year 47%)Planted, week ending Apr 24: 30% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 75%)Planted, week ending May 1: 52% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 81%)Planted, week ending May 8: 60% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 90%)Planted, week ending May 15: 89% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 95%)Planted, week ending May 22: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Planted, week ending May 29: 98% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Planted, week ending Jun 5: 100% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Apr 3Apr 17May 1May 15May 29
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 100% as of Jun 5.

Field progress

Emerged, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Washington potato emerged, 20220%50%100%Emerged, week ending May 1: 2% (5-yr avg 8%, last year 15%)Emerged, week ending May 8: 9% (5-yr avg 21%, last year 22%)Emerged, week ending May 15: 20% (5-yr avg 42%, last year 38%)Emerged, week ending May 22: 33% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 64%)Emerged, week ending May 29: 40% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 85%)Emerged, week ending Jun 5: 46% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 91%)Emerged, week ending Jun 12: 78% (5-yr avg —, last year 94%)Emerged, week ending Jun 19: 90% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending Jun 26: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)May 1May 15May 29Jun 12Jun 26
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 95% as of Jun 26.

Field progress

Harvested, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

Washington potato harvested, 20220%50%100%Harvested, week ending Jul 17: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 4%)Harvested, week ending Jul 24: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 6%)Harvested, week ending Jul 31: 2% (5-yr avg 9%, last year 10%)Harvested, week ending Aug 7: 3% (5-yr avg 15%, last year 18%)Harvested, week ending Aug 14: 8% (5-yr avg 22%, last year 25%)Harvested, week ending Aug 21: 12% (5-yr avg 27%, last year 30%)Harvested, week ending Aug 28: 23% (5-yr avg 30%, last year 34%)Harvested, week ending Sep 4: 30% (5-yr avg 34%, last year 38%)Harvested, week ending Sep 11: 38% (5-yr avg 38%, last year 44%)Harvested, week ending Sep 18: 43% (5-yr avg 43%, last year 48%)Harvested, week ending Sep 25: 51% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 54%)Harvested, week ending Oct 2: 55% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 58%)Harvested, week ending Oct 9: 65% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 67%)Harvested, week ending Oct 16: 77% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 77%)Harvested, week ending Oct 23: 88% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 88%)Harvested, week ending Oct 30: 98% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 93%)Jul 17Jul 31Aug 14Aug 28Sep 11Sep 25Oct 9Oct 23
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 98% as of Oct 30 (5-yr avg 93%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

Washington potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final050100150million cwt2014: no forecast · final 101.5 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 100.3 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 105.6 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 99.2 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 100.8 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 101.5 million cwt · final 105.0 million cwt (+3.4%)+3.4%20192020: Nov forecast 96.3 million cwt · final 99.7 million cwt (+3.5%)+3.5%20202021: Nov forecast 93.3 million cwt · final 91.9 million cwt (-1.5%)−1.5%20212022: Nov forecast 94.9 million cwt · final 95.4 million cwt (+0.5%)+0.5%20222023: Nov forecast 101.2 million cwt · final 103.6 million cwt (+2.4%)+2.4%20232024: Nov forecast 99.7 million cwt · final 98.9 million cwt (-0.8%)−0.8%20242025: Nov forecast 88.6 million cwt · final 91.0 million cwt (+2.8%)+2.8%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202588.6 November91.0+2.8%$825M21.8%
202499.7 November98.9−0.8%$1,028M23.5%
2023101.2 November103.6+2.4%$1,161M23.5%
202294.9 November95.4+0.5%$943M23.7%
202193.3 November91.9−1.5%$712M22.3%
202096.3 November99.7+3.5%$753M23.7%
2019101.5 November105.0+3.4%$934M24.8%
2018—100.8—$788M22.4%
2017—99.2—$687M22.0%
2016—105.6—$813M23.5%
2015—100.3—$772M22.4%
2014—101.5—$771M22.6%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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