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North Dakota · crop watch

North Dakota potato crop

USDA last rated the 2020 North Dakota potato crop for the week ending Sep 27, when 68% was good or excellent, versus 55% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 95% complete (five-year average 75%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2020 crop at 22.9 million cwt, up 17.9% from last year's final of 19.4.

Last rated week ending Sep 27, 2020

Good to excellent · last reading

68%of the crop

Share of the 2020 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 27.

▲

95%

Harvested

+20 points against the five-year pace of 75%.

▼

24.5

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−3.2% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 27

North Dakota potato harvest trails average pace

For the week ending September 27, 2026, North Dakota rated 64% of its potato crop good to excellent, up 7 points from the prior week but well below last year's 79% at the same point. Harvest reached 43% complete, behind both the five-year average of 56% and last year's 51%. USDA's November 2025 forecast put production at 24.5 million cwt, down 3.2% from last year's 25.3 million cwt final and below the 26.4 million cwt harvested two years ago. Past forecasts have typically finished about 3% above their first estimate, so the final figure could edge higher.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±4.3%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2020

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
North Dakota potato crop condition, 20200%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 21: Very poor 2%, Poor 3%, Fair 30%, Good 58%, Excellent 7% — good+excellent 65% (5-yr avg —, last year 85%)Week ending Jun 28: Very poor 2%, Poor 3%, Fair 29%, Good 62%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 66% (5-yr avg —, last year 87%)Week ending Jul 5: Very poor 4%, Poor 4%, Fair 27%, Good 59%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 65% (5-yr avg 73%, last year 87%)Week ending Jul 12: Very poor 4%, Poor 4%, Fair 28%, Good 54%, Excellent 10% — good+excellent 64% (5-yr avg 70%, last year 80%)Week ending Jul 19: Very poor 3%, Poor 6%, Fair 29%, Good 52%, Excellent 10% — good+excellent 62% (5-yr avg 71%, last year 79%)Week ending Jul 26: Very poor 5%, Poor 4%, Fair 26%, Good 49%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 65% (5-yr avg 70%, last year 82%)Week ending Aug 2: Very poor 3%, Poor 3%, Fair 22%, Good 54%, Excellent 18% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 77%)Week ending Aug 9: Very poor 3%, Poor 2%, Fair 20%, Good 60%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 75% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 65%)Week ending Aug 16: Very poor 3%, Poor 2%, Fair 20%, Good 61%, Excellent 14% — good+excellent 75% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 54%)Week ending Aug 23: Very poor 3%, Poor 2%, Fair 21%, Good 61%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 74% (5-yr avg 53%, last year 48%)Week ending Aug 30: Very poor 4%, Poor 3%, Fair 21%, Good 52%, Excellent 20% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 53%, last year 52%)Week ending Sep 6: Very poor 5%, Poor 2%, Fair 20%, Good 50%, Excellent 23% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 57%)Week ending Sep 13: Very poor 4%, Poor 3%, Fair 24%, Good 51%, Excellent 18% — good+excellent 69% (5-yr avg 51%, last year 50%)Week ending Sep 20: Very poor 3%, Poor 2%, Fair 25%, Good 59%, Excellent 11% — good+excellent 70% (5-yr avg 53%, last year 55%)Week ending Sep 27: Very poor 3%, Poor 2%, Fair 27%, Good 58%, Excellent 10% — good+excellent 68% (5-yr avg —, last year 55%)Harvest begins — week ending Sep 6Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 27USDA forecastJun 21Jul 5Jul 19Aug 2Aug 16Aug 30Sep 13Sep 27
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 68% good or excellent, week ending Sep 27. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato planted, 20200%50%100%Planted, week ending May 3: 7% (5-yr avg 12%, last year 2%)Planted, week ending May 10: 18% (5-yr avg 32%, last year 24%)Planted, week ending May 17: 35% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 53%)Planted, week ending May 24: 66% (5-yr avg 75%, last year 77%)Planted, week ending May 31: 80% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 94%)Planted, week ending Jun 7: 92% (5-yr avg —, last year 99%)Planted, week ending Jun 14: 96% (5-yr avg 98%, last year 100%)May 3May 10May 17May 24May 31Jun 7Jun 14
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 96% as of Jun 14 (5-yr avg 98%).

Field progress

Emerged, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato emerged, 20200%50%100%Emerged, week ending May 24: 8% (5-yr avg 11%, last year 2%)Emerged, week ending May 31: 12% (5-yr avg 24%, last year 9%)Emerged, week ending Jun 7: 21% (5-yr avg 51%, last year 45%)Emerged, week ending Jun 14: 45% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 83%)Emerged, week ending Jun 21: 81% (5-yr avg 96%, last year 97%)Emerged, week ending Jun 28: 93% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending Jul 5: 96% (5-yr avg 100%, last year 100%)May 24May 31Jun 7Jun 14Jun 21Jun 28Jul 5
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 96% as of Jul 5 (5-yr avg 100%).

Field progress

Blooming, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato blooming, 20200%50%100%Blooming, week ending Jun 28: 6% (5-yr avg 10%, last year 1%)Blooming, week ending Jul 5: 34% (5-yr avg 30%, last year 9%)Blooming, week ending Jul 12: 58% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 47%)Blooming, week ending Jul 19: 82% (5-yr avg 81%, last year 84%)Blooming, week ending Jul 26: 92% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 95%)Blooming, week ending Aug 2: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Jun 28Jul 5Jul 12Jul 19Jul 26Aug 2
This year5-yr avgLast year

Blooming: 95% as of Aug 2.

Field progress

Harvested, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato harvested, 20200%50%100%Harvested, week ending Sep 6: 3% (5-yr avg 6%, last year 3%)Harvested, week ending Sep 13: 20% (5-yr avg 13%, last year 9%)Harvested, week ending Sep 20: 39% (5-yr avg 27%, last year 22%)Harvested, week ending Sep 27: 64% (5-yr avg 45%, last year 36%)Harvested, week ending Oct 4: 84% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 44%)Harvested, week ending Oct 11: 95% (5-yr avg 75%, last year 54%)Sep 6Sep 13Sep 20Sep 27Oct 4Oct 11
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 95% as of Oct 11 (5-yr avg 75%).

Field progress

Closed middles (rows filled), 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato closed middles (rows filled), 20200%50%100%Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 5: 6% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 12: 13% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 19: 42% (5-yr avg 40%, last year 40%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 26: 71% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 71%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 2: 78% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 81%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 9: 86% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 86%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 16: 91% (5-yr avg —, last year 89%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 23: 95% (5-yr avg —, last year 94%)Jul 5Jul 12Jul 19Jul 26Aug 2Aug 9Aug 16Aug 23
This year5-yr avgLast year

Closed middles (rows filled): 95% as of Aug 23.

Field progress

Vines dry, 2020

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato vines dry, 20200%50%100%Vines dry, week ending Aug 2: 0% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 0%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 9: 2% (5-yr avg 5%, last year 1%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 16: 8% (5-yr avg 10%, last year 3%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 23: 12% (5-yr avg 18%, last year 12%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 30: 31% (5-yr avg 35%, last year 39%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 6: 62% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 64%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 13: 83% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 73%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 20: 92% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 82%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 27: 96% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 89%)Aug 2Aug 16Aug 30Sep 13Sep 27
This year5-yr avgLast year

Vines dry: 96% as of Sep 27 (5-yr avg 93%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

North Dakota potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final0102030million cwt2014: no forecast · final 23.9 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 27.6 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 21.6 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 24.4 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 23.7 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 20.9 million cwt · final 19.4 million cwt (-7.2%)−7.2%20192020: Nov forecast 22.9 million cwt · final 23.8 million cwt (+3.9%)+3.9%20202021: Nov forecast 21.0 million cwt · final 22.5 million cwt (+7.1%)+7.1%20212022: Nov forecast 22.3 million cwt · final 21.8 million cwt (-2.3%)−2.3%20222023: Nov forecast 25.9 million cwt · final 26.4 million cwt (+2.1%)+2.1%20232024: Nov forecast 23.2 million cwt · final 25.3 million cwt (+9.1%)+9.1%20242025: Nov forecast 24.5 million cwt · final 24.3 million cwt (-1.0%)−1.0%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202524.5 November24.3−1.0%$296M5.8%
202423.2 November25.3+9.1%$339M6.0%
202325.9 November26.4+2.1%$404M6.0%
202222.3 November21.8−2.3%$281M5.4%
202121.0 November22.5+7.1%$259M5.5%
202022.9 November23.8+3.9%$278M5.7%
201920.9 November19.4−7.2%$223M4.6%
2018—23.7—$226M5.3%
2017—24.4—$223M5.4%
2016—21.6—$222M4.8%
2015—27.6—$255M6.2%
2014—23.9—$224M5.3%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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