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North Dakota · crop watch

North Dakota potato crop

USDA last rated the 2022 North Dakota potato crop for the week ending Sep 25, when 71% was good or excellent, versus 20% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 98% complete (five-year average 83%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2022 crop at 22.3 million cwt, down 1.0% from last year's final of 22.5.

Last rated week ending Sep 25, 2022

Good to excellent · last reading

71%of the crop

Share of the 2022 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 25.

▲

98%

Harvested

+15 points against the five-year pace of 83%.

▼

24.5

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−3.2% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 27

North Dakota potato harvest trails average pace

For the week ending September 27, 2026, North Dakota rated 64% of its potato crop good to excellent, up 7 points from the prior week but well below last year's 79% at the same point. Harvest reached 43% complete, behind both the five-year average of 56% and last year's 51%. USDA's November 2025 forecast put production at 24.5 million cwt, down 3.2% from last year's 25.3 million cwt final and below the 26.4 million cwt harvested two years ago. Past forecasts have typically finished about 3% above their first estimate, so the final figure could edge higher.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±4.3%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2022

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
North Dakota potato crop condition, 20220%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 26: Very poor 1%, Poor 1%, Fair 80%, Good 14%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 18% (5-yr avg —, last year 18%)Week ending Jul 3: Very poor 1%, Poor 1%, Fair 50%, Good 40%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 48% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 25%)Week ending Jul 10: Very poor 0%, Poor 5%, Fair 46%, Good 47%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 49% (5-yr avg 65%, last year 21%)Week ending Jul 17: Very poor 0%, Poor 6%, Fair 40%, Good 52%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 54% (5-yr avg 65%, last year 19%)Week ending Jul 24: Very poor 0%, Poor 6%, Fair 34%, Good 50%, Excellent 10% — good+excellent 60% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 24%)Week ending Jul 31: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 43%, Good 43%, Excellent 14% — good+excellent 57% (5-yr avg 63%, last year 16%)Week ending Aug 7: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 44%, Good 46%, Excellent 9% — good+excellent 55% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 14%)Week ending Aug 14: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 35%, Good 50%, Excellent 14% — good+excellent 64% (5-yr avg 54%, last year 15%)Week ending Aug 21: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 37%, Good 44%, Excellent 18% — good+excellent 62% (5-yr avg 50%, last year 15%)Week ending Aug 28: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 33%, Good 49%, Excellent 18% — good+excellent 67% (5-yr avg 50%, last year 15%)Week ending Sep 4: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 29%, Good 51%, Excellent 20% — good+excellent 71% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 23%)Week ending Sep 11: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 31%, Good 54%, Excellent 14% — good+excellent 68% (5-yr avg 49%, last year 20%)Week ending Sep 18: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 25%, Good 53%, Excellent 21% — good+excellent 74% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 17%)Week ending Sep 25: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 28%, Good 55%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 71% (5-yr avg —, last year 20%)Harvest begins — week ending Sep 4Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 25USDA forecastJun 26Jul 10Jul 24Aug 7Aug 21Sep 4Sep 18
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 71% good or excellent, week ending Sep 25. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato planted, 20220%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 17: 0% (5-yr avg 0%, last year 2%)Planted, week ending Apr 24: 0% (5-yr avg 1%, last year 4%)Planted, week ending May 1: 0% (5-yr avg 7%, last year 20%)Planted, week ending May 8: 0% (5-yr avg 21%, last year 37%)Planted, week ending May 15: 3% (5-yr avg 44%, last year 58%)Planted, week ending May 22: 12% (5-yr avg 67%, last year 77%)Planted, week ending May 29: 32% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 93%)Planted, week ending Jun 5: 38% (5-yr avg 95%, last year 99%)Planted, week ending Jun 12: 81% (5-yr avg 98%, last year 100%)Planted, week ending Jun 19: 91% (5-yr avg 100%, last year 100%)Planted, week ending Jun 26: 97% (5-yr avg 100%, last year 100%)Apr 17May 1May 15May 29Jun 12Jun 26
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 97% as of Jun 26 (5-yr avg 100%).

Field progress

Emerged, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato emerged, 20220%50%100%Emerged, week ending May 15: 0% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 9%)Emerged, week ending May 22: 0% (5-yr avg 8%, last year 20%)Emerged, week ending May 29: 5% (5-yr avg 19%, last year 43%)Emerged, week ending Jun 5: 7% (5-yr avg 43%, last year 78%)Emerged, week ending Jun 12: 28% (5-yr avg 73%, last year 92%)Emerged, week ending Jun 19: 55% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 96%)Emerged, week ending Jun 26: 85% (5-yr avg 97%, last year 100%)Emerged, week ending Jul 3: 93% (5-yr avg 99%, last year 100%)Emerged, week ending Jul 10: 95% (5-yr avg 100%, last year 100%)May 15May 29Jun 12Jun 26Jul 10
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 95% as of Jul 10 (5-yr avg 100%).

Field progress

Blooming, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato blooming, 20220%50%100%Blooming, week ending Jun 26: 0% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 4%)Blooming, week ending Jul 3: 1% (5-yr avg 17%, last year 26%)Blooming, week ending Jul 10: 12% (5-yr avg 47%, last year 63%)Blooming, week ending Jul 17: 61% (5-yr avg 71%, last year 75%)Blooming, week ending Jul 24: 88% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 87%)Blooming, week ending Jul 31: 92% (5-yr avg 96%, last year 96%)Blooming, week ending Aug 7: 96% (5-yr avg 98%, last year 100%)Jun 26Jul 3Jul 10Jul 17Jul 24Jul 31Aug 7
This year5-yr avgLast year

Blooming: 96% as of Aug 7 (5-yr avg 98%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato harvested, 20220%50%100%Harvested, week ending Sep 4: 10% (5-yr avg 4%, last year 4%)Harvested, week ending Sep 11: 21% (5-yr avg 12%, last year 12%)Harvested, week ending Sep 18: 25% (5-yr avg 26%, last year 27%)Harvested, week ending Sep 25: 49% (5-yr avg 44%, last year 45%)Harvested, week ending Oct 2: 72% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 59%)Harvested, week ending Oct 9: 85% (5-yr avg 75%, last year 74%)Harvested, week ending Oct 16: 98% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 78%)Sep 4Sep 11Sep 18Sep 25Oct 2Oct 9Oct 16
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 98% as of Oct 16 (5-yr avg 83%).

Field progress

Closed middles (rows filled), 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato closed middles (rows filled), 20220%50%100%Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 17: 20% (5-yr avg 32%, last year 34%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 24: 35% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 47%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 31: 52% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 54%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 7: 73% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 70%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 14: 85% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 83%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 21: 96% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 89%)Jul 17Jul 24Jul 31Aug 7Aug 14Aug 21
This year5-yr avgLast year

Closed middles (rows filled): 96% as of Aug 21 (5-yr avg 93%).

Field progress

Vines dry, 2022

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato vines dry, 20220%50%100%Vines dry, week ending Aug 7: 0% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 6%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 14: 2% (5-yr avg 8%, last year 10%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 21: 7% (5-yr avg 15%, last year 19%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 28: 30% (5-yr avg 30%, last year 32%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 4: 36% (5-yr avg 54%, last year 45%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 11: 47% (5-yr avg 73%, last year 66%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 18: 59% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 82%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 25: 80% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 89%)Vines dry, week ending Oct 2: 89% (5-yr avg 95%, last year 93%)Vines dry, week ending Oct 9: 100% (5-yr avg 97%, last year 95%)Aug 7Aug 21Sep 4Sep 18Oct 2
This year5-yr avgLast year

Vines dry: 100% as of Oct 9 (5-yr avg 97%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

North Dakota potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final0102030million cwt2014: no forecast · final 23.9 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 27.6 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 21.6 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 24.4 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 23.7 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 20.9 million cwt · final 19.4 million cwt (-7.2%)−7.2%20192020: Nov forecast 22.9 million cwt · final 23.8 million cwt (+3.9%)+3.9%20202021: Nov forecast 21.0 million cwt · final 22.5 million cwt (+7.1%)+7.1%20212022: Nov forecast 22.3 million cwt · final 21.8 million cwt (-2.3%)−2.3%20222023: Nov forecast 25.9 million cwt · final 26.4 million cwt (+2.1%)+2.1%20232024: Nov forecast 23.2 million cwt · final 25.3 million cwt (+9.1%)+9.1%20242025: Nov forecast 24.5 million cwt · final 24.3 million cwt (-1.0%)−1.0%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202524.5 November24.3−1.0%$296M5.8%
202423.2 November25.3+9.1%$339M6.0%
202325.9 November26.4+2.1%$404M6.0%
202222.3 November21.8−2.3%$281M5.4%
202121.0 November22.5+7.1%$259M5.5%
202022.9 November23.8+3.9%$278M5.7%
201920.9 November19.4−7.2%$223M4.6%
2018—23.7—$226M5.3%
2017—24.4—$223M5.4%
2016—21.6—$222M4.8%
2015—27.6—$255M6.2%
2014—23.9—$224M5.3%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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