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North Dakota · crop watch

North Dakota potato crop

USDA last rated the 2024 North Dakota potato crop for the week ending Sep 22, when 74% was good or excellent, 21 points above the five-year average of 53%, versus 49% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 95% complete (five-year average 93%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2024 crop at 23.2 million cwt, down 12.2% from last year's final of 26.4.

Last rated week ending Sep 22, 2024

Good to excellent · last reading

74%of the crop

21 points above the five-year average for this week, and 49% a year ago.

▲

95%

Harvested

+2 points against the five-year pace of 93%.

▼

24.5

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−3.2% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 27

North Dakota potato harvest trails average pace

For the week ending September 27, 2026, North Dakota rated 64% of its potato crop good to excellent, up 7 points from the prior week but well below last year's 79% at the same point. Harvest reached 43% complete, behind both the five-year average of 56% and last year's 51%. USDA's November 2025 forecast put production at 24.5 million cwt, down 3.2% from last year's 25.3 million cwt final and below the 26.4 million cwt harvested two years ago. Past forecasts have typically finished about 3% above their first estimate, so the final figure could edge higher.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±4.3%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2024

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
North Dakota potato crop condition, 20240%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 9: Very poor 1%, Poor 5%, Fair 38%, Good 56%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 56% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jun 16: Very poor 1%, Poor 5%, Fair 36%, Good 55%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 58% (5-yr avg —, last year 37%)Week ending Jun 23: Very poor 2%, Poor 8%, Fair 49%, Good 38%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 41% (5-yr avg 46%, last year 43%)Week ending Jun 30: Very poor 1%, Poor 7%, Fair 35%, Good 52%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 57% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 35%)Week ending Jul 7: Very poor 3%, Poor 8%, Fair 24%, Good 59%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 65% (5-yr avg 54%, last year 47%)Week ending Jul 14: Very poor 2%, Poor 5%, Fair 17%, Good 65%, Excellent 11% — good+excellent 76% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 46%)Week ending Jul 21: Very poor 2%, Poor 3%, Fair 22%, Good 66%, Excellent 7% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 56%)Week ending Jul 28: Very poor 1%, Poor 3%, Fair 24%, Good 60%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 55%, last year 46%)Week ending Aug 4: Very poor 1%, Poor 2%, Fair 25%, Good 59%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 38%)Week ending Aug 11: Very poor 2%, Poor 1%, Fair 18%, Good 66%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 79% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 39%)Week ending Aug 18: Very poor 4%, Poor 4%, Fair 18%, Good 64%, Excellent 10% — good+excellent 74% (5-yr avg 48%, last year 33%)Week ending Aug 25: Very poor 3%, Poor 3%, Fair 14%, Good 68%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 80% (5-yr avg 47%, last year 32%)Week ending Sep 1: Very poor 2%, Poor 3%, Fair 20%, Good 63%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 75% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 41%)Week ending Sep 8: Very poor 4%, Poor 3%, Fair 14%, Good 67%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 79% (5-yr avg 51%, last year 41%)Week ending Sep 15: Very poor 2%, Poor 2%, Fair 21%, Good 63%, Excellent 12% — good+excellent 75% (5-yr avg 51%, last year 47%)Week ending Sep 22: Very poor 2%, Poor 2%, Fair 22%, Good 59%, Excellent 15% — good+excellent 74% (5-yr avg 53%, last year 49%)−17 pts — week ending Jun 23−17 ptsHarvest begins — week ending Aug 18Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 22USDA forecastJun 9Jun 23Jul 7Jul 21Aug 4Aug 18Sep 1Sep 15
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 74% good or excellent, week ending Sep 22. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2024

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato planted, 20240%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 14: 0% (5-yr avg 0%, last year 0%)Planted, week ending Apr 21: 9% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Planted, week ending Apr 28: 15% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 0%)Planted, week ending May 5: 17% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Planted, week ending May 12: 39% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Planted, week ending May 19: 64% (5-yr avg 46%, last year 49%)Planted, week ending May 26: 79% (5-yr avg 67%, last year 70%)Planted, week ending Jun 2: 88% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 85%)Planted, week ending Jun 9: 95% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 93%)Planted, week ending Jun 16: 98% (5-yr avg 96%, last year 95%)Apr 14Apr 28May 12May 26Jun 9
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 98% as of Jun 16 (5-yr avg 96%).

Field progress

Emerged, 2024

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato emerged, 20240%50%100%Emerged, week ending May 5: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending May 12: 4% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending May 19: 10% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 0%)Emerged, week ending May 26: 21% (5-yr avg 12%, last year 12%)Emerged, week ending Jun 2: 50% (5-yr avg 26%, last year 34%)Emerged, week ending Jun 9: 71% (5-yr avg 50%, last year 60%)Emerged, week ending Jun 16: 83% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 76%)Emerged, week ending Jun 23: 88% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 83%)Emerged, week ending Jun 30: 95% (5-yr avg 95%, last year 91%)May 5May 19Jun 2Jun 16Jun 30
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 95% as of Jun 30 (5-yr avg 95%).

Field progress

Blooming, 2024

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato blooming, 20240%50%100%Blooming, week ending Jun 16: 4% (5-yr avg 0%, last year 0%)Blooming, week ending Jun 23: 10% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 4%)Blooming, week ending Jun 30: 25% (5-yr avg 9%, last year 12%)Blooming, week ending Jul 7: 32% (5-yr avg 26%, last year 21%)Blooming, week ending Jul 14: 70% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 50%)Blooming, week ending Jul 21: 89% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 80%)Blooming, week ending Jul 28: 95% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 92%)Blooming, week ending Aug 4: 100% (5-yr avg 97%, last year 95%)Jun 16Jun 23Jun 30Jul 7Jul 14Jul 21Jul 28Aug 4
This year5-yr avgLast year

Blooming: 100% as of Aug 4 (5-yr avg 97%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2024

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato harvested, 20240%50%100%Harvested, week ending Aug 18: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Aug 25: 2% (5-yr avg 0%, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Sep 1: 3% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 4%)Harvested, week ending Sep 8: 16% (5-yr avg 10%, last year 14%)Harvested, week ending Sep 15: 35% (5-yr avg 23%, last year 36%)Harvested, week ending Sep 22: 50% (5-yr avg 41%, last year 55%)Harvested, week ending Sep 29: 61% (5-yr avg 59%, last year 70%)Harvested, week ending Oct 6: 78% (5-yr avg 73%, last year 85%)Harvested, week ending Oct 13: 88% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 94%)Harvested, week ending Oct 20: 92% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 99%)Harvested, week ending Oct 27: 95% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 100%)Aug 18Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 95% as of Oct 27 (5-yr avg 93%).

Field progress

Closed middles (rows filled), 2024

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato closed middles (rows filled), 20240%50%100%Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jun 30: 9% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 7: 16% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 14: 23% (5-yr avg 18%, last year 19%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 21: 37% (5-yr avg 43%, last year 40%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 28: 47% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 61%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 4: 62% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 73%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 11: 80% (5-yr avg 82%, last year 79%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 18: 90% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 87%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 25: 96% (5-yr avg 95%, last year 94%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Sep 1: 97% (5-yr avg 99%, last year 99%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Sep 8: 100% (5-yr avg 100%, last year 100%)Jun 30Jul 14Jul 28Aug 11Aug 25Sep 8
This year5-yr avgLast year

Closed middles (rows filled): 100% as of Sep 8 (5-yr avg 100%).

Field progress

Vines dry, 2024

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato vines dry, 20240%50%100%Vines dry, week ending Aug 4: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Vines dry, week ending Aug 11: 9% (5-yr avg 4%, last year 6%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 18: 10% (5-yr avg 11%, last year 24%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 25: 25% (5-yr avg 23%, last year 36%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 1: 41% (5-yr avg 43%, last year 54%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 8: 56% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 70%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 15: 78% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 82%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 22: 83% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 94%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 29: 90% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 99%)Vines dry, week ending Oct 6: 95% (5-yr avg 96%, last year 100%)Aug 4Aug 18Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29
This year5-yr avgLast year

Vines dry: 95% as of Oct 6 (5-yr avg 96%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

North Dakota potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final0102030million cwt2014: no forecast · final 23.9 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 27.6 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 21.6 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 24.4 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 23.7 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 20.9 million cwt · final 19.4 million cwt (-7.2%)−7.2%20192020: Nov forecast 22.9 million cwt · final 23.8 million cwt (+3.9%)+3.9%20202021: Nov forecast 21.0 million cwt · final 22.5 million cwt (+7.1%)+7.1%20212022: Nov forecast 22.3 million cwt · final 21.8 million cwt (-2.3%)−2.3%20222023: Nov forecast 25.9 million cwt · final 26.4 million cwt (+2.1%)+2.1%20232024: Nov forecast 23.2 million cwt · final 25.3 million cwt (+9.1%)+9.1%20242025: Nov forecast 24.5 million cwt · final 24.3 million cwt (-1.0%)−1.0%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202524.5 November24.3−1.0%$296M5.8%
202423.2 November25.3+9.1%$339M6.0%
202325.9 November26.4+2.1%$404M6.0%
202222.3 November21.8−2.3%$281M5.4%
202121.0 November22.5+7.1%$259M5.5%
202022.9 November23.8+3.9%$278M5.7%
201920.9 November19.4−7.2%$223M4.6%
2018—23.7—$226M5.3%
2017—24.4—$223M5.4%
2016—21.6—$222M4.8%
2015—27.6—$255M6.2%
2014—23.9—$224M5.3%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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