ProduceWire ProduceWire

North Dakota · crop watch

North Dakota potato crop

As of the week ending Sep 27, 64% of the 2026 North Dakota potato crop is rated good or excellent, versus 79% at this point last year. Harvest is 43% complete (five-year average 56%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2025 crop at 24.5 million cwt, down 3.2% from last year's final of 25.3.

Week ending Sep 27, 2026

Good to excellent

64%of the crop

Share of the 2026 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 27.

▼

43%

Harvested

−13 points against the five-year pace of 56%.

▼

24.5

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−3.2% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 27

North Dakota potato harvest trails average pace

For the week ending September 27, 2026, North Dakota rated 64% of its potato crop good to excellent, up 7 points from the prior week but well below last year's 79% at the same point. Harvest reached 43% complete, behind both the five-year average of 56% and last year's 51%. USDA's November 2025 forecast put production at 24.5 million cwt, down 3.2% from last year's 25.3 million cwt final and below the 26.4 million cwt harvested two years ago. Past forecasts have typically finished about 3% above their first estimate, so the final figure could edge higher.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±4.3%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2026

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
North Dakota potato crop condition, 20260%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 7: Very poor 0%, Poor 6%, Fair 55%, Good 39%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 39% (5-yr avg —, last year 58%)Week ending Jun 14: Very poor 0%, Poor 9%, Fair 58%, Good 32%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 33% (5-yr avg —, last year 57%)Week ending Jun 21: Very poor 0%, Poor 15%, Fair 64%, Good 21%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 21% (5-yr avg 34%, last year 51%)Week ending Jun 28: Very poor 0%, Poor 17%, Fair 36%, Good 47%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 47% (5-yr avg 43%, last year 53%)Week ending Jul 5: Very poor 0%, Poor 12%, Fair 34%, Good 51%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 54% (5-yr avg 48%, last year 60%)Week ending Jul 12: Very poor 0%, Poor 13%, Fair 29%, Good 56%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 58% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 65%)Week ending Jul 19: Very poor 0%, Poor 20%, Fair 24%, Good 55%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 56% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 74%)Week ending Jul 26: Very poor 1%, Poor 14%, Fair 31%, Good 52%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 54% (5-yr avg 53%, last year 73%)Week ending Aug 2: Very poor 2%, Poor 13%, Fair 32%, Good 52%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 53% (5-yr avg 51%, last year 76%)Week ending Aug 9: Very poor 3%, Poor 13%, Fair 35%, Good 46%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 49% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 84%)Week ending Aug 16: Very poor 3%, Poor 14%, Fair 35%, Good 47%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 48% (5-yr avg 54%, last year 87%)Week ending Aug 23: Very poor 1%, Poor 11%, Fair 30%, Good 54%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 58% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 88%)Week ending Aug 30: Very poor 2%, Poor 7%, Fair 30%, Good 60%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 61% (5-yr avg 59%, last year 84%)Week ending Sep 6: Very poor 5%, Poor 11%, Fair 29%, Good 52%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 55% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 80%)Week ending Sep 13: Very poor 4%, Poor 14%, Fair 31%, Good 47%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 51% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 72%)Week ending Sep 20: Very poor 4%, Poor 11%, Fair 28%, Good 54%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 57% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 66%)Week ending Sep 27: Very poor 3%, Poor 11%, Fair 22%, Good 61%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 64% (5-yr avg —, last year 79%)−12 pts — week ending Jun 21−12 ptsHarvest begins — week ending Aug 30Harvest beginsJun 7Jun 28Jul 19Aug 9Aug 30Sep 20
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 64% good or excellent, week ending Sep 27. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2026

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato planted, 20260%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 19: 0% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 1%)Planted, week ending Apr 26: 1% (5-yr avg 5%, last year 3%)Planted, week ending May 3: 12% (5-yr avg 12%, last year 12%)Planted, week ending May 10: 32% (5-yr avg 25%, last year 35%)Planted, week ending May 17: 64% (5-yr avg 42%, last year 48%)Planted, week ending May 24: 84% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 66%)Planted, week ending May 31: 92% (5-yr avg 75%, last year 81%)Planted, week ending Jun 7: 97% (5-yr avg 85%, last year 90%)Apr 19Apr 26May 3May 10May 17May 24May 31Jun 7
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 97% as of Jun 7 (5-yr avg 85%).

Field progress

Emerged, 2026

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato emerged, 20260%50%100%Emerged, week ending May 10: 0% (5-yr avg 1%, last year 0%)Emerged, week ending May 17: 0% (5-yr avg 5%, last year 3%)Emerged, week ending May 24: 4% (5-yr avg 13%, last year 15%)Emerged, week ending May 31: 33% (5-yr avg 34%, last year 45%)Emerged, week ending Jun 7: 62% (5-yr avg 58%, last year 73%)Emerged, week ending Jun 14: 86% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 80%)Emerged, week ending Jun 21: 88% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 88%)Emerged, week ending Jun 28: 96% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 94%)Emerged, week ending Jul 5: 100% (5-yr avg 97%, last year 98%)May 10May 24Jun 7Jun 21Jul 5
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 100% as of Jul 5 (5-yr avg 97%).

Field progress

Blooming, 2026

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato blooming, 20260%50%100%Blooming, week ending Jun 14: 1% (5-yr avg 1%, last year 0%)Blooming, week ending Jun 21: 9% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 1%)Blooming, week ending Jun 28: 10% (5-yr avg 10%, last year 10%)Blooming, week ending Jul 5: 30% (5-yr avg 24%, last year 32%)Blooming, week ending Jul 12: 68% (5-yr avg 49%, last year 51%)Blooming, week ending Jul 19: 74% (5-yr avg 76%, last year 75%)Blooming, week ending Jul 26: 93% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 89%)Blooming, week ending Aug 2: 97% (5-yr avg 96%, last year 95%)Jun 14Jun 21Jun 28Jul 5Jul 12Jul 19Jul 26Aug 2
This year5-yr avgLast year

Blooming: 97% as of Aug 2 (5-yr avg 96%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2026

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato harvested, 20260%50%100%Harvested, week ending Aug 23: 0% (5-yr avg 0%, last year 0%)Harvested, week ending Aug 30: 2% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 3%)Harvested, week ending Sep 6: 11% (5-yr avg 11%, last year 13%)Harvested, week ending Sep 13: 15% (5-yr avg 24%, last year 23%)Harvested, week ending Sep 20: 34% (5-yr avg 37%, last year 27%)Harvested, week ending Sep 27: 43% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 51%)Aug 23Aug 30Sep 6Sep 13Sep 20Sep 27
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 43% as of Sep 27 (5-yr avg 56%).

Field progress

Closed middles (rows filled), 2026

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato closed middles (rows filled), 20260%50%100%Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 5: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 1%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 12: 6% (5-yr avg 13%, last year 4%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 19: 21% (5-yr avg 33%, last year 35%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 26: 61% (5-yr avg 49%, last year 54%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 2: 77% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 69%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 9: 90% (5-yr avg 78%, last year 86%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 16: 95% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 91%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 23: 97% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 92%)Jul 5Jul 12Jul 19Jul 26Aug 2Aug 9Aug 16Aug 23
This year5-yr avgLast year

Closed middles (rows filled): 97% as of Aug 23 (5-yr avg 93%).

Field progress

Vines dry, 2026

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato vines dry, 20260%50%100%Vines dry, week ending Aug 2: 2% (5-yr avg 1%, last year 0%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 9: 14% (5-yr avg 4%, last year 2%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 16: 24% (5-yr avg 13%, last year 21%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 23: 44% (5-yr avg 26%, last year 39%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 30: 65% (5-yr avg 41%, last year 52%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 6: 74% (5-yr avg 54%, last year 64%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 13: 79% (5-yr avg 69%, last year 73%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 20: 82% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 76%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 27: 87% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 86%)Aug 2Aug 16Aug 30Sep 13Sep 27
This year5-yr avgLast year

Vines dry: 87% as of Sep 27 (5-yr avg 89%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

North Dakota potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final0102030million cwt2014: no forecast · final 23.9 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 27.6 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 21.6 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 24.4 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 23.7 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 20.9 million cwt · final 19.4 million cwt (-7.2%)−7.2%20192020: Nov forecast 22.9 million cwt · final 23.8 million cwt (+3.9%)+3.9%20202021: Nov forecast 21.0 million cwt · final 22.5 million cwt (+7.1%)+7.1%20212022: Nov forecast 22.3 million cwt · final 21.8 million cwt (-2.3%)−2.3%20222023: Nov forecast 25.9 million cwt · final 26.4 million cwt (+2.1%)+2.1%20232024: Nov forecast 23.2 million cwt · final 25.3 million cwt (+9.1%)+9.1%20242025: Nov forecast 24.5 million cwt · final 24.3 million cwt (-1.0%)−1.0%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202524.5 November24.3−1.0%$296M5.8%
202423.2 November25.3+9.1%$339M6.0%
202325.9 November26.4+2.1%$404M6.0%
202222.3 November21.8−2.3%$281M5.4%
202121.0 November22.5+7.1%$259M5.5%
202022.9 November23.8+3.9%$278M5.7%
201920.9 November19.4−7.2%$223M4.6%
2018—23.7—$226M5.3%
2017—24.4—$223M5.4%
2016—21.6—$222M4.8%
2015—27.6—$255M6.2%
2014—23.9—$224M5.3%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

Get the Weekly Market Brief

Price moves, freight signals, and the produce stories that matter — one email, every week. Built for buyers, category managers, and brokers.

Subscribe free →