ProduceWire ProduceWire

North Dakota · crop watch

North Dakota potato crop

USDA last rated the 2025 North Dakota potato crop for the week ending Sep 28, when 79% was good or excellent. Harvest stood at 55% complete (five-year average 61%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2025 crop at 24.5 million cwt, down 3.2% from last year's final of 25.3.

Last rated week ending Sep 28, 2025

Good to excellent · last reading

79%of the crop

Share of the 2025 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 28.

▼

55%

Harvested

−6 points against the five-year pace of 61%.

▼

24.5

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−3.2% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 27

North Dakota potato harvest trails average pace

For the week ending September 27, 2026, North Dakota rated 64% of its potato crop good to excellent, up 7 points from the prior week but well below last year's 79% at the same point. Harvest reached 43% complete, behind both the five-year average of 56% and last year's 51%. USDA's November 2025 forecast put production at 24.5 million cwt, down 3.2% from last year's 25.3 million cwt final and below the 26.4 million cwt harvested two years ago. Past forecasts have typically finished about 3% above their first estimate, so the final figure could edge higher.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±4.3%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2025

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
North Dakota potato crop condition, 20250%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 8: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 42%, Good 58%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 58% (5-yr avg —, last year 56%)Week ending Jun 15: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 43%, Good 56%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 57% (5-yr avg —, last year 58%)Week ending Jun 22: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 48%, Good 47%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 51% (5-yr avg 37%, last year 41%)Week ending Jun 29: Very poor 0%, Poor 2%, Fair 45%, Good 48%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 53% (5-yr avg 46%, last year 57%)Week ending Jul 6: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 39%, Good 56%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 60% (5-yr avg 49%, last year 65%)Week ending Jul 13: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 35%, Good 52%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 65% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 76%)Week ending Jul 20: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 26%, Good 61%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 74% (5-yr avg 55%, last year 73%)Week ending Jul 27: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 27%, Good 63%, Excellent 10% — good+excellent 73% (5-yr avg 53%, last year 72%)Week ending Aug 3: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 24%, Good 63%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 76% (5-yr avg 51%, last year 72%)Week ending Aug 10: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 16%, Good 66%, Excellent 18% — good+excellent 84% (5-yr avg 55%, last year 79%)Week ending Aug 17: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 13%, Good 73%, Excellent 14% — good+excellent 87% (5-yr avg 51%, last year 74%)Week ending Aug 24: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 12%, Good 71%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 88% (5-yr avg 54%, last year 80%)Week ending Aug 31: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 15%, Good 68%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 84% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 75%)Week ending Sep 7: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 19%, Good 64%, Excellent 16% — good+excellent 80% (5-yr avg 55%, last year 79%)Week ending Sep 14: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 28%, Good 61%, Excellent 11% — good+excellent 72% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 75%)Week ending Sep 21: Very poor 0%, Poor 0%, Fair 34%, Good 53%, Excellent 13% — good+excellent 66% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 74%)Week ending Sep 28: Very poor 0%, Poor 1%, Fair 20%, Good 62%, Excellent 17% — good+excellent 79% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvest begins — week ending Aug 31Harvest begins−8 pts — week ending Sep 14−8 ptsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 28USDA forecastJun 8Jun 29Jul 20Aug 10Aug 31Sep 21
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 79% good or excellent, week ending Sep 28. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato planted, 20250%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 13: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Planted, week ending Apr 20: 1% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 8%)Planted, week ending Apr 27: 3% (5-yr avg 5%, last year 14%)Planted, week ending May 4: 14% (5-yr avg —, last year 17%)Planted, week ending May 11: 39% (5-yr avg —, last year 36%)Planted, week ending May 18: 50% (5-yr avg 43%, last year 60%)Planted, week ending May 25: 69% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 77%)Planted, week ending Jun 1: 83% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 87%)Planted, week ending Jun 8: 91% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 94%)Planted, week ending Jun 15: 97% (5-yr avg 95%, last year 98%)Apr 13Apr 27May 11May 25Jun 8
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 97% as of Jun 15 (5-yr avg 95%).

Field progress

Emerged, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato emerged, 20250%50%100%Emerged, week ending May 4: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Emerged, week ending May 11: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year 4%)Emerged, week ending May 18: 4% (5-yr avg 5%, last year 9%)Emerged, week ending May 25: 17% (5-yr avg 14%, last year 19%)Emerged, week ending Jun 1: 50% (5-yr avg 31%, last year 46%)Emerged, week ending Jun 8: 77% (5-yr avg 50%, last year 68%)Emerged, week ending Jun 15: 81% (5-yr avg 68%, last year 81%)Emerged, week ending Jun 22: 89% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 87%)Emerged, week ending Jun 29: 95% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 94%)May 4May 18Jun 1Jun 15Jun 29
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 95% as of Jun 29 (5-yr avg 93%).

Field progress

Blooming, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato blooming, 20250%50%100%Blooming, week ending Jun 15: 0% (5-yr avg 1%, last year 4%)Blooming, week ending Jun 22: 1% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 9%)Blooming, week ending Jun 29: 11% (5-yr avg 11%, last year 23%)Blooming, week ending Jul 6: 35% (5-yr avg 27%, last year 31%)Blooming, week ending Jul 13: 54% (5-yr avg 55%, last year 65%)Blooming, week ending Jul 20: 79% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 86%)Blooming, week ending Jul 27: 91% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 94%)Blooming, week ending Aug 3: 96% (5-yr avg 96%, last year 99%)Jun 15Jun 22Jun 29Jul 6Jul 13Jul 20Jul 27Aug 3
This year5-yr avgLast year

Blooming: 96% as of Aug 3 (5-yr avg 96%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato harvested, 20250%50%100%Harvested, week ending Aug 17: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Harvested, week ending Aug 24: 0% (5-yr avg 0%, last year 2%)Harvested, week ending Aug 31: 3% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 3%)Harvested, week ending Sep 7: 15% (5-yr avg 11%, last year 14%)Harvested, week ending Sep 14: 24% (5-yr avg 26%, last year 32%)Harvested, week ending Sep 21: 28% (5-yr avg 43%, last year 48%)Harvested, week ending Sep 28: 55% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 59%)Aug 17Aug 24Aug 31Sep 7Sep 14Sep 21Sep 28
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 55% as of Sep 28 (5-yr avg 61%).

Field progress

Closed middles (rows filled), 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato closed middles (rows filled), 20250%50%100%Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jun 29: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 6: 1% (5-yr avg —, last year 15%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 13: 5% (5-yr avg 18%, last year 22%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 20: 40% (5-yr avg 37%, last year 35%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 27: 56% (5-yr avg 54%, last year 46%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 3: 71% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 60%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 10: 89% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 77%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 17: 91% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 89%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 24: 92% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 95%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 31: 96% (5-yr avg 98%, last year 97%)Jun 29Jul 13Jul 27Aug 10Aug 24
This year5-yr avgLast year

Closed middles (rows filled): 96% as of Aug 31 (5-yr avg 98%).

Field progress

Vines dry, 2025

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato vines dry, 20250%50%100%Vines dry, week ending Jul 27: 0% (5-yr avg 0%, last year 0%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 3: 0% (5-yr avg 1%, last year 1%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 10: 2% (5-yr avg 5%, last year 8%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 17: 24% (5-yr avg 11%, last year 10%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 24: 42% (5-yr avg 23%, last year 23%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 31: 54% (5-yr avg 39%, last year 39%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 7: 66% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 54%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 14: 74% (5-yr avg 73%, last year 75%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 21: 76% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 82%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 28: 88% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 89%)Jul 27Aug 10Aug 24Sep 7Sep 21
This year5-yr avgLast year

Vines dry: 88% as of Sep 28 (5-yr avg 92%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

North Dakota potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final0102030million cwt2014: no forecast · final 23.9 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 27.6 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 21.6 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 24.4 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 23.7 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 20.9 million cwt · final 19.4 million cwt (-7.2%)−7.2%20192020: Nov forecast 22.9 million cwt · final 23.8 million cwt (+3.9%)+3.9%20202021: Nov forecast 21.0 million cwt · final 22.5 million cwt (+7.1%)+7.1%20212022: Nov forecast 22.3 million cwt · final 21.8 million cwt (-2.3%)−2.3%20222023: Nov forecast 25.9 million cwt · final 26.4 million cwt (+2.1%)+2.1%20232024: Nov forecast 23.2 million cwt · final 25.3 million cwt (+9.1%)+9.1%20242025: Nov forecast 24.5 million cwt · final 24.3 million cwt (-1.0%)−1.0%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202524.5 November24.3−1.0%$296M5.8%
202423.2 November25.3+9.1%$339M6.0%
202325.9 November26.4+2.1%$404M6.0%
202222.3 November21.8−2.3%$281M5.4%
202121.0 November22.5+7.1%$259M5.5%
202022.9 November23.8+3.9%$278M5.7%
201920.9 November19.4−7.2%$223M4.6%
2018—23.7—$226M5.3%
2017—24.4—$223M5.4%
2016—21.6—$222M4.8%
2015—27.6—$255M6.2%
2014—23.9—$224M5.3%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

Get the Weekly Market Brief

Price moves, freight signals, and the produce stories that matter — one email, every week. Built for buyers, category managers, and brokers.

Subscribe free →