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North Dakota · crop watch

North Dakota potato crop

USDA last rated the 2023 North Dakota potato crop for the week ending Sep 24, when 49% was good or excellent, 5 points below the five-year average of 54%, versus 71% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 96% complete (five-year average 83%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2023 crop at 25.9 million cwt, up 19.0% from last year's final of 21.8.

Last rated week ending Sep 24, 2023

Good to excellent · last reading

49%of the crop

5 points below the five-year average for this week, and 71% a year ago.

▲

96%

Harvested

+13 points against the five-year pace of 83%.

▼

24.5

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−3.2% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 27

North Dakota potato harvest trails average pace

For the week ending September 27, 2026, North Dakota rated 64% of its potato crop good to excellent, up 7 points from the prior week but well below last year's 79% at the same point. Harvest reached 43% complete, behind both the five-year average of 56% and last year's 51%. USDA's November 2025 forecast put production at 24.5 million cwt, down 3.2% from last year's 25.3 million cwt final and below the 26.4 million cwt harvested two years ago. Past forecasts have typically finished about 3% above their first estimate, so the final figure could edge higher.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±4.3%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2023

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
North Dakota potato crop condition, 20230%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 18: Very poor 5%, Poor 21%, Fair 37%, Good 36%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 37% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jun 25: Very poor 5%, Poor 12%, Fair 40%, Good 42%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 43% (5-yr avg 57%, last year 18%)Week ending Jul 2: Very poor 9%, Poor 16%, Fair 40%, Good 34%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 35% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 48%)Week ending Jul 9: Very poor 7%, Poor 15%, Fair 31%, Good 39%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 47% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 49%)Week ending Jul 16: Very poor 7%, Poor 9%, Fair 38%, Good 46%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 46% (5-yr avg 62%, last year 54%)Week ending Jul 23: Very poor 0%, Poor 4%, Fair 40%, Good 52%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 56% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 60%)Week ending Jul 30: Very poor 6%, Poor 15%, Fair 33%, Good 41%, Excellent 5% — good+excellent 46% (5-yr avg 61%, last year 57%)Week ending Aug 6: Very poor 10%, Poor 19%, Fair 33%, Good 32%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 38% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 55%)Week ending Aug 13: Very poor 9%, Poor 17%, Fair 35%, Good 31%, Excellent 8% — good+excellent 39% (5-yr avg 55%, last year 64%)Week ending Aug 20: Very poor 11%, Poor 15%, Fair 41%, Good 30%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 33% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 62%)Week ending Aug 27: Very poor 11%, Poor 20%, Fair 37%, Good 28%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 32% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 67%)Week ending Sep 3: Very poor 6%, Poor 19%, Fair 34%, Good 35%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 41% (5-yr avg 55%, last year 71%)Week ending Sep 10: Very poor 5%, Poor 21%, Fair 33%, Good 37%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 41% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 68%)Week ending Sep 17: Very poor 3%, Poor 15%, Fair 35%, Good 41%, Excellent 6% — good+excellent 47% (5-yr avg 53%, last year 74%)Week ending Sep 24: Very poor 3%, Poor 11%, Fair 37%, Good 46%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 49% (5-yr avg 54%, last year 71%)−10 pts — week ending Jul 30−10 ptsHarvest begins — week ending Sep 3Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 24USDA forecastJun 18Jul 2Jul 16Jul 30Aug 13Aug 27Sep 10Sep 24
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 49% good or excellent, week ending Sep 24. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato planted, 20230%50%100%Planted, week ending May 14: 20% (5-yr avg 33%, last year 3%)Planted, week ending May 21: 60% (5-yr avg 54%, last year 11%)Planted, week ending May 28: 74% (5-yr avg 73%, last year 29%)Planted, week ending Jun 4: 90% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 37%)Planted, week ending Jun 11: 94% (5-yr avg 94%, last year 75%)Planted, week ending Jun 18: 96% (5-yr avg 98%, last year 90%)May 14May 21May 28Jun 4Jun 11Jun 18
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 96% as of Jun 18 (5-yr avg 98%).

Field progress

Emerged, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato emerged, 20230%50%100%Emerged, week ending May 28: 17% (5-yr avg 15%, last year 4%)Emerged, week ending Jun 4: 41% (5-yr avg 31%, last year 7%)Emerged, week ending Jun 11: 68% (5-yr avg 59%, last year 25%)Emerged, week ending Jun 18: 79% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 51%)Emerged, week ending Jun 25: 85% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 81%)Emerged, week ending Jul 2: 94% (5-yr avg 97%, last year 92%)Emerged, week ending Jul 9: 97% (5-yr avg 99%, last year 95%)May 28Jun 4Jun 11Jun 18Jun 25Jul 2Jul 9
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 97% as of Jul 9 (5-yr avg 99%).

Field progress

Blooming, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato blooming, 20230%50%100%Blooming, week ending Jun 25: 6% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 0%)Blooming, week ending Jul 2: 15% (5-yr avg 12%, last year 1%)Blooming, week ending Jul 9: 24% (5-yr avg 40%, last year 10%)Blooming, week ending Jul 16: 60% (5-yr avg 71%, last year 54%)Blooming, week ending Jul 23: 88% (5-yr avg 89%, last year 84%)Blooming, week ending Jul 30: 94% (5-yr avg 95%, last year 91%)Blooming, week ending Aug 6: 96% (5-yr avg 98%, last year 95%)Jun 25Jul 2Jul 9Jul 16Jul 23Jul 30Aug 6
This year5-yr avgLast year

Blooming: 96% as of Aug 6 (5-yr avg 98%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato harvested, 20230%50%100%Harvested, week ending Sep 3: 5% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 9%)Harvested, week ending Sep 10: 17% (5-yr avg 11%, last year 19%)Harvested, week ending Sep 17: 44% (5-yr avg 23%, last year 24%)Harvested, week ending Sep 24: 59% (5-yr avg 41%, last year 46%)Harvested, week ending Oct 1: 74% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 69%)Harvested, week ending Oct 8: 90% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 83%)Harvested, week ending Oct 15: 96% (5-yr avg 83%, last year 96%)Sep 3Sep 10Sep 17Sep 24Oct 1Oct 8Oct 15
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 96% as of Oct 15 (5-yr avg 83%).

Field progress

Closed middles (rows filled), 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato closed middles (rows filled), 20230%50%100%Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 9: 10% (5-yr avg 8%, last year 0%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 16: 22% (5-yr avg 30%, last year 17%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 23: 47% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 33%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 30: 67% (5-yr avg 67%, last year 50%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 6: 75% (5-yr avg 79%, last year 70%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 13: 81% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 83%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 20: 89% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 94%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 27: 96% (5-yr avg 97%, last year 98%)Jul 9Jul 16Jul 23Jul 30Aug 6Aug 13Aug 20Aug 27
This year5-yr avgLast year

Closed middles (rows filled): 96% as of Aug 27 (5-yr avg 97%).

Field progress

Vines dry, 2023

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato vines dry, 20230%50%100%Vines dry, week ending Aug 13: 9% (5-yr avg 5%, last year 2%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 20: 30% (5-yr avg 12%, last year 6%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 27: 39% (5-yr avg 28%, last year 27%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 3: 60% (5-yr avg 49%, last year 35%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 10: 74% (5-yr avg 66%, last year 45%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 17: 85% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 57%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 24: 97% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 77%)Aug 13Aug 20Aug 27Sep 3Sep 10Sep 17Sep 24
This year5-yr avgLast year

Vines dry: 97% as of Sep 24 (5-yr avg 88%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

North Dakota potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final0102030million cwt2014: no forecast · final 23.9 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 27.6 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 21.6 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 24.4 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 23.7 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 20.9 million cwt · final 19.4 million cwt (-7.2%)−7.2%20192020: Nov forecast 22.9 million cwt · final 23.8 million cwt (+3.9%)+3.9%20202021: Nov forecast 21.0 million cwt · final 22.5 million cwt (+7.1%)+7.1%20212022: Nov forecast 22.3 million cwt · final 21.8 million cwt (-2.3%)−2.3%20222023: Nov forecast 25.9 million cwt · final 26.4 million cwt (+2.1%)+2.1%20232024: Nov forecast 23.2 million cwt · final 25.3 million cwt (+9.1%)+9.1%20242025: Nov forecast 24.5 million cwt · final 24.3 million cwt (-1.0%)−1.0%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202524.5 November24.3−1.0%$296M5.8%
202423.2 November25.3+9.1%$339M6.0%
202325.9 November26.4+2.1%$404M6.0%
202222.3 November21.8−2.3%$281M5.4%
202121.0 November22.5+7.1%$259M5.5%
202022.9 November23.8+3.9%$278M5.7%
201920.9 November19.4−7.2%$223M4.6%
2018—23.7—$226M5.3%
2017—24.4—$223M5.4%
2016—21.6—$222M4.8%
2015—27.6—$255M6.2%
2014—23.9—$224M5.3%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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