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North Dakota · crop watch

North Dakota potato crop

USDA last rated the 2021 North Dakota potato crop for the week ending Sep 26, when 20% was good or excellent, versus 68% at this point last year. Harvest stood at 96% complete (five-year average 93%). USDA's November forecast puts the 2021 crop at 21.0 million cwt, down 11.8% from last year's final of 23.8.

Last rated week ending Sep 26, 2021

Good to excellent · last reading

20%of the crop

Share of the 2021 crop rated good or excellent for the week ending Sep 26.

▲

96%

Harvested

+3 points against the five-year pace of 93%.

▼

24.5

million cwt, 2025 forecast

−3.2% against last year's final crop.

Analysis

Week ending Sep 27

North Dakota potato harvest trails average pace

For the week ending September 27, 2026, North Dakota rated 64% of its potato crop good to excellent, up 7 points from the prior week but well below last year's 79% at the same point. Harvest reached 43% complete, behind both the five-year average of 56% and last year's 51%. USDA's November 2025 forecast put production at 24.5 million cwt, down 3.2% from last year's 25.3 million cwt final and below the 26.4 million cwt harvested two years ago. Past forecasts have typically finished about 3% above their first estimate, so the final figure could edge higher.

Written from USDA data and source reports

Forecast reliability

±4.3%

Average gap between the season's first USDA forecast and the final crop across the last 5 completed seasons.

Weekly ratings

Crop condition, 2021

Bars are the full USDA rating split each week. The dashed line is the five-year average for good plus excellent; the dotted line is last year.

2026202520242023202220212020
North Dakota potato crop condition, 20210%25%50%75%100%Week ending Jun 6: Very poor 5%, Poor 13%, Fair 60%, Good 20%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 22% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jun 13: Very poor 6%, Poor 12%, Fair 65%, Good 17%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 17% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Week ending Jun 20: Very poor 9%, Poor 12%, Fair 62%, Good 15%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 17% (5-yr avg —, last year 65%)Week ending Jun 27: Very poor 10%, Poor 12%, Fair 60%, Good 15%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 18% (5-yr avg —, last year 66%)Week ending Jul 4: Very poor 11%, Poor 16%, Fair 48%, Good 22%, Excellent 3% — good+excellent 25% (5-yr avg 74%, last year 65%)Week ending Jul 11: Very poor 10%, Poor 17%, Fair 52%, Good 20%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 21% (5-yr avg 70%, last year 64%)Week ending Jul 18: Very poor 7%, Poor 13%, Fair 61%, Good 18%, Excellent 1% — good+excellent 19% (5-yr avg 71%, last year 62%)Week ending Jul 25: Very poor 11%, Poor 18%, Fair 47%, Good 24%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 24% (5-yr avg 70%, last year 65%)Week ending Aug 1: Very poor 10%, Poor 18%, Fair 56%, Good 16%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 16% (5-yr avg 71%, last year 72%)Week ending Aug 8: Very poor 7%, Poor 11%, Fair 68%, Good 14%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 14% (5-yr avg 65%, last year 75%)Week ending Aug 15: Very poor 6%, Poor 12%, Fair 67%, Good 15%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 15% (5-yr avg 59%, last year 75%)Week ending Aug 22: Very poor 8%, Poor 14%, Fair 63%, Good 13%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 15% (5-yr avg 55%, last year 74%)Week ending Aug 29: Very poor 8%, Poor 15%, Fair 62%, Good 11%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 15% (5-yr avg 55%, last year 72%)Week ending Sep 5: Very poor 10%, Poor 18%, Fair 49%, Good 19%, Excellent 4% — good+excellent 23% (5-yr avg 54%, last year 73%)Week ending Sep 12: Very poor 5%, Poor 21%, Fair 54%, Good 18%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 20% (5-yr avg 52%, last year 69%)Week ending Sep 19: Very poor 4%, Poor 16%, Fair 63%, Good 15%, Excellent 2% — good+excellent 17% (5-yr avg 55%, last year 70%)Week ending Sep 26: Very poor 3%, Poor 18%, Fair 59%, Good 20%, Excellent 0% — good+excellent 20% (5-yr avg —, last year 68%)−8 pts — week ending Aug 1−8 ptsHarvest begins — week ending Sep 5Harvest beginsUSDA forecast — week ending Sep 26USDA forecastJun 6Jun 27Jul 18Aug 8Aug 29Sep 19
Very poorPoorFairGoodExcellent5-yr avg good+excellentLast year

Latest: 20% good or excellent, week ending Sep 26. Hover a bar for the full breakdown.

Field progress

Planted, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato planted, 20210%50%100%Planted, week ending Apr 18: 2% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Planted, week ending Apr 25: 4% (5-yr avg 1%, last year 0%)Planted, week ending May 2: 23% (5-yr avg 6%, last year 6%)Planted, week ending May 9: 39% (5-yr avg 24%, last year 16%)Planted, week ending May 16: 61% (5-yr avg 49%, last year 33%)Planted, week ending May 23: 80% (5-yr avg 72%, last year 62%)Planted, week ending May 30: 95% (5-yr avg 87%, last year 78%)Apr 18Apr 25May 2May 9May 16May 23May 30
This year5-yr avgLast year

Planted: 95% as of May 30 (5-yr avg 87%).

Field progress

Emerged, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato emerged, 20210%50%100%Emerged, week ending May 9: 3% (5-yr avg 0%, last year 0%)Emerged, week ending May 16: 10% (5-yr avg 2%, last year 0%)Emerged, week ending May 23: 22% (5-yr avg 9%, last year 7%)Emerged, week ending May 30: 47% (5-yr avg 19%, last year 11%)Emerged, week ending Jun 6: 83% (5-yr avg 43%, last year 20%)Emerged, week ending Jun 13: 93% (5-yr avg 73%, last year 42%)Emerged, week ending Jun 20: 97% (5-yr avg 91%, last year 76%)May 9May 16May 23May 30Jun 6Jun 13Jun 20
This year5-yr avgLast year

Emerged: 97% as of Jun 20 (5-yr avg 91%).

Field progress

Blooming, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato blooming, 20210%50%100%Blooming, week ending Jun 20: 2% (5-yr avg —, last year 0%)Blooming, week ending Jun 27: 4% (5-yr avg 6%, last year 5%)Blooming, week ending Jul 4: 30% (5-yr avg 23%, last year 30%)Blooming, week ending Jul 11: 68% (5-yr avg 54%, last year 55%)Blooming, week ending Jul 18: 76% (5-yr avg 77%, last year 79%)Blooming, week ending Jul 25: 89% (5-yr avg 92%, last year 91%)Blooming, week ending Aug 1: 97% (5-yr avg 97%, last year 95%)Jun 20Jun 27Jul 4Jul 11Jul 18Jul 25Aug 1
This year5-yr avgLast year

Blooming: 97% as of Aug 1 (5-yr avg 97%).

Field progress

Harvested, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato harvested, 20210%50%100%Harvested, week ending Sep 5: 5% (5-yr avg 5%, last year 3%)Harvested, week ending Sep 12: 13% (5-yr avg 13%, last year 18%)Harvested, week ending Sep 19: 29% (5-yr avg 26%, last year 36%)Harvested, week ending Sep 26: 48% (5-yr avg 43%, last year 60%)Harvested, week ending Oct 3: 61% (5-yr avg 60%, last year 81%)Harvested, week ending Oct 10: 76% (5-yr avg 75%, last year 93%)Harvested, week ending Oct 17: 78% (5-yr avg 84%, last year 98%)Harvested, week ending Oct 24: 90% (5-yr avg 90%, last year 100%)Harvested, week ending Oct 31: 96% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 100%)Sep 5Sep 19Oct 3Oct 17Oct 31
This year5-yr avgLast year

Harvested: 96% as of Oct 31 (5-yr avg 93%).

Field progress

Closed middles (rows filled), 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato closed middles (rows filled), 20210%50%100%Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 11: 18% (5-yr avg —, last year 12%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 18: 37% (5-yr avg 36%, last year 38%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Jul 25: 49% (5-yr avg 64%, last year 67%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 1: 55% (5-yr avg 80%, last year 77%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 8: 72% (5-yr avg 88%, last year 85%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 15: 85% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 90%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 22: 90% (5-yr avg 95%, last year 94%)Closed middles (rows filled), week ending Aug 29: 95% (5-yr avg 98%, last year 98%)Jul 11Jul 18Jul 25Aug 1Aug 8Aug 15Aug 22Aug 29
This year5-yr avgLast year

Closed middles (rows filled): 95% as of Aug 29 (5-yr avg 98%).

Field progress

Vines dry, 2021

This season against the five-year average pace and last year.

North Dakota potato vines dry, 20210%50%100%Vines dry, week ending Jul 25: 0% (5-yr avg —, last year —)Vines dry, week ending Aug 1: 1% (5-yr avg 1%, last year 0%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 8: 7% (5-yr avg 3%, last year 2%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 15: 11% (5-yr avg 8%, last year 7%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 22: 20% (5-yr avg 15%, last year 11%)Vines dry, week ending Aug 29: 34% (5-yr avg 33%, last year 28%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 5: 47% (5-yr avg 56%, last year 58%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 12: 69% (5-yr avg 75%, last year 80%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 19: 84% (5-yr avg 86%, last year 91%)Vines dry, week ending Sep 26: 90% (5-yr avg 93%, last year 95%)Vines dry, week ending Oct 3: 93% (5-yr avg 96%, last year 99%)Vines dry, week ending Oct 10: 95% (5-yr avg 98%, last year 100%)Jul 25Aug 8Aug 22Sep 5Sep 19Oct 3
This year5-yr avgLast year

Vines dry: 95% as of Oct 10 (5-yr avg 98%).

Forecast record

How the forecast moved to final

Each season's first USDA forecast against the final estimate, with the revision between them.

North Dakota potato crop: USDA first forecast vs final0102030million cwt2014: no forecast · final 23.9 million cwt20142015: no forecast · final 27.6 million cwt20152016: no forecast · final 21.6 million cwt20162017: no forecast · final 24.4 million cwt20172018: no forecast · final 23.7 million cwt20182019: Nov forecast 20.9 million cwt · final 19.4 million cwt (-7.2%)−7.2%20192020: Nov forecast 22.9 million cwt · final 23.8 million cwt (+3.9%)+3.9%20202021: Nov forecast 21.0 million cwt · final 22.5 million cwt (+7.1%)+7.1%20212022: Nov forecast 22.3 million cwt · final 21.8 million cwt (-2.3%)−2.3%20222023: Nov forecast 25.9 million cwt · final 26.4 million cwt (+2.1%)+2.1%20232024: Nov forecast 23.2 million cwt · final 25.3 million cwt (+9.1%)+9.1%20242025: Nov forecast 24.5 million cwt · final 24.3 million cwt (-1.0%)−1.0%2025
First forecastFinalFinal pending
Crop yearFirst forecast (million cwt)FinalRevisionCrop valueShare of US
202524.5 November24.3−1.0%$296M5.8%
202423.2 November25.3+9.1%$339M6.0%
202325.9 November26.4+2.1%$404M6.0%
202222.3 November21.8−2.3%$281M5.4%
202121.0 November22.5+7.1%$259M5.5%
202022.9 November23.8+3.9%$278M5.7%
201920.9 November19.4−7.2%$223M4.6%
2018—23.7—$226M5.3%
2017—24.4—$223M5.4%
2016—21.6—$222M4.8%
2015—27.6—$255M6.2%
2014—23.9—$224M5.3%

Revision is how far the final estimate moved from the season's first forecast — the practical measure of how much weight to give an early number.

Source: USDA NASS Crop Progress (weekly, April–November) and Crop Production reports. This product uses the NASS API but is not endorsed or certified by NASS.

Updated September 29, 2026

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